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Budgeting for Net Zero
The report evaluates the financial viability of five clean energy technologies in India: battery energy storage systems (BESSs), solar photovoltaic (PV), electric vehicles (EVs), offshore wind, and green hydrogen (GH2). While current subsidies are sufficient for solar PV and BESSs, significant funding gaps remain for offshore wind and green hydrogen. The analysis suggests that while the government does not need to fund the entire cost gap due to potential private sector catalysis, international climate finance and policy reforms are essential to meet 2030 goals.
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Document type: Report
A low-biomass clean power system for the UK is achievable
Ember modelling indicates that the UK can reduce biomass power generation by 55% to just 2% of total electricity generation by 2030 without compromising grid stability. This low-biomass pathway involves reducing biomass capacity by 2 GW—retaining only the equivalent of one unit at Drax—and replacing the lost generation primarily through increased power imports (6.9 TWh) and a slight increase in gas use (2.9 TWh). The report highlights that biomass power is significantly more expensive than gas or wind, costing £138/MWh under a Contract for Difference, and poses energy security risks due to its total reliance on imports, as Drax consumed 5.8 million tonnes of non-UK wood biomass in 2023. Despite the reduction in biomass, the UK would remain a net exporter of electricity, totaling 60 TWh annually.
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Document type: Research paper
UK low-carbon renewable power set to overtake fossil fuels for first time
In 2024, UK low-carbon renewables (wind, solar, and hydropower) are forecast to generate 37% of electricity (103 TWh), overtaking fossil fuels, which are set to provide 35% (97 TWh). Wind power is close to becoming the largest single source of UK power, forecast at 29% (82 TWh), just behind fossil gas at 30% (85 TWh). The year also marked the closure of the UK's last coal power plant, with gas power use set to decrease by 13% compared to 2023, reaching its lowest level since 1996. This decline in fossil fuel reliance is attributed to rising renewable generation, low electricity demand, and a 42% increase in net electricity imports.
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Document type: Report
Framework for Decentralized Energy Resilience in Islands
The document introduces a novel five-step modelling framework designed to identify power infrastructure vulnerabilities and design cost-optimal decentralized renewable energy (DRE) solutions for islands and low-lying states. The framework involves identifying disruption hotspots, assessing disruptive potential, designing DRE systems using HOMER Pro, integrating local contextual factors, and evaluating resilience improvements. Testing the framework in Cuba revealed that municipalities with high electricity demand from industries and large buildings are most vulnerable to single-point failures. The results demonstrate that while DRE systems—incorporating solar PV, wind, battery storage, and biomass—improve power supply continuity, their effectiveness and cost are heavily influenced by local contexts, such as the US embargo on Cuba, which increased capital investment costs by 5-40% compared to global scenarios.
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Document type: Policy brief
Country Brief: Sustainable Cooling for All in Ghana
Ghana faces significant cooling gaps, with 12.9 million people at high risk and 16.6 million at medium risk due to lack of access to cooling and electricity. While refrigeration and air-conditioning (RAC) demand is projected to rise from 7.04 TWh in 2015 to 20.9 TWh by 2050, the country aims to align this growth with its net-zero 2060 target by shifting toward renewables and energy-efficient cooling.
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Document type: Briefing
Budgeting for Net Zero
The document provides a technical framework for calculating the 'cost gap'—the marginal cost differential between clean energy technologies and their conventional benchmarks—for Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), offshore wind, solar PV, electric vehicles (EVs), and green hydrogen in India. It outlines the specific input parameters, learning rates, and benchmarks used for each technology. Furthermore, it describes the application of the Green Economy Model (GEM), a system dynamics tool, to simulate how varying levels of public funding (e.g., 30% or 100% of the cost gap) influence India's GDP, employment, and emissions through feedback loops involving energy spending, air pollution, and labor productivity.
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Document type: Report
Budgeting for Net Zero
The report analyzes the cost gaps for battery energy storage systems (BESSs), offshore wind, solar PV, electric vehicles (EVs), and green hydrogen (GH2) in India. It finds that while current subsidies are sufficient for solar PV and BESSs, significant additional support is needed for offshore wind, EVs, and GH2. Macroeconomic modeling suggests that bridging these gaps generally boosts GDP and employment, except for GH2, which remains cost-uncompetitive until after 2050.
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Document type: Report
Net-zero electricity in Canada
Canada has reduced power sector greenhouse gas emissions by 60% since 2005, primarily through phasing out coal. To reach net-zero, the country must mitigate another 47 Mt of CO2e while potentially doubling or tripling electricity generation by 2050. The transition relies on scaling wind, solar, and hydroelectric power, which are now often cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives. A net-zero grid is projected to reduce average household energy spending by 12% by 2050 and save households CAD 15 billion annually. Beyond economics, the shift reduces local pollutants like sulphur dioxide and mercury, which are linked to premature deaths and cognitive impairment. Key recommendations include implementing federal clean electricity regulations, facilitating interprovincial grid connections (interties), and streamlining provincial permitting processes.
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Document type: Policy brief
Examining the role of risk mitigation and transfer for renewable energy investments
The report examines how risk mitigation and transfer (RMT) instruments, such as political risk insurance and guarantees from development finance institutions (DFIs), help utility-scale renewable energy projects reach financial close in West and Central Africa. While these tools are critical for addressing offtaker and political risks, the authors argue they are insufficient to overcome structural macroeconomic barriers, including high sovereign debt and insolvent state-owned utilities. The report highlights innovative models, such as the re-deployable modular solar solution in Cameroon and the use of viable businesses as anchor loads in Ghana, as potential pathways for deployment in high-debt contexts.
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Document type: Report
Framework for decentralized energy and enhanced resilience on islands
The document introduces a framework to transition island states from vulnerable centralized grids to resilient decentralized renewable energy systems. Using Cuba as a test case, it demonstrates how identifying 'disruption hotspots' and applying context-specific modelling can maintain power supply during extreme weather events, though it notes that such resilience often requires higher upfront capital investments.
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Document type: Policy brief
Zero Carbon Zero Cost: Rooftop Solar Savings for Japanese Households
Zero Carbon Analytics finds that Japanese households with rooftop solar panels would have saved nearly 135% compared to those without in FY 2020, resulting in a net benefit of JPY 37,422 (USD 353). The report argues that Japan, which has the lowest clean energy share among G7 countries, can accelerate its energy transition by leveraging rooftop solar to overcome mountainous terrain constraints. It highlights the role of policy incentives like feed-in-tariffs (FiT) and tax credits in driving adoption in the US, EU, and UK, and suggests that Japan needs low-cost finance to reduce upfront costs and avoid diverting support toward unproven technologies like hydrogen.
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Document type: Report
Barbados Climate Resilient South Coast Water Reclamation Project (SCWRP) Barbados
The South Coast Water Reclamation Project (SCWRP) in Barbados aims to transform the existing South Coast Sewage Treatment Plant (SCSTP) into a modern Water Resource Recovery Facility (SCWRRF). The project focuses on producing high-quality reclaimed water to reduce dependence on potable groundwater, which is under threat from droughts and seawater intrusion. Key infrastructure includes a 25 km irrigation pipeline for 160 hectares of farmland and a system of injection wells for aquifer recharge in the Christ Church aquifer. The project also includes the restoration of the 33-hectare Graeme Hall Swamp and the installation of a 7 MW solar PV plant with battery storage to provide energy redundancy and reduce GHG emissions. Financially, the project employs an innovative 'Debt-for-Climate Conversion' (DfCC) mechanism, using savings from restructured sovereign debt to fund the investment. The total financing is USD 110 million, with USD 70 million requested from the Green Climate Fund (USD 40 million grant and USD 30 million loan) and USD 40 million in co-financing from the Inter-American Development Bank.
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Document type: Research paper
Country Brief: Sustainable Cooling for All in Kenya
Kenya faces significant cooling gaps, with millions of people in hot regions at risk due to poverty and lack of electricity. While the country has a high share of renewable energy, the growth of refrigeration and air-conditioning (RAC) threatens to increase emissions, necessitating a transition to sustainable cooling to align with Net Zero 2050 goals.
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Document type: Briefing
Renewable energy in India: manufacturing and recycling require sustained support
India aims for 500 GW of non-fossil electricity capacity by 2030, but the target has slipped to 2031-32. While India produces 70-80% of its wind turbines domestically and exports significantly to the US, its solar PV sector is heavily dependent on China, which held over 80% of the global module market in 2022. India is attempting to build domestic solar supply chains via the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme and the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM), though it remains reliant on imports for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel. Recycling is identified as essential for future supply chain security, with solar PV waste projected to reach nearly 19,000 kt by 2050.
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Document type: Briefing
Clean tech opportunities for emerging economies under a Trump presidency
The re-election of Donald Trump may slow US clean technology deployment through the potential repeal of Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funds and EV tax credits, potentially shifting leadership to emerging economies. The global market for six key technologies—solar PV, wind turbines, EVs, batteries, electrolysers, and heat pumps—is projected to exceed USD 2 trillion by 2035, with global trade reaching USD 575 billion. China currently leads with 70% of the market for these technologies, though it faces risks from proposed US tariffs of 60% on all imports and 100% on EVs. Other nations may benefit: India could become a net exporter of clean technologies by 2035 with annual exports of USD 30 billion, and Brazil is well-positioned in wind turbine blade production, currently accounting for 5% of the global market. In the Global South, renewable energy potential is 400 times greater than fossil fuel production, and solar is expected to have lower upfront costs than coal in Vietnam from 2024 and in India from approximately 2027.
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Document type: Briefing
Nigeria Energy Transition & Investment Plan Update
The Nigeria Energy Transition & Investment Plan Update (ETIP 2.0) outlines a pathway to net-zero emissions by 2060, requiring a total installed power capacity of 277 GW and an additional capital investment of approximately $500 billion USD above business-as-usual levels. The plan emphasizes a massive shift toward solar PV, which is projected to reach 209 GW by 2050, and the phasing out of diesel decentralized generators by 2030. In the transport sector, the plan envisions a transition where electric vehicles make up at least 80% of the fleet by 2050, while the cooking sector aims for universal access by 2030, eventually transitioning to e-cooking. Despite the high upfront costs, the transition is projected to result in fuel savings of $686 billion USD. Key barriers identified include high initial costs for EVs and e-cooking, unreliable grid supply, and a skills gap in green technologies.
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Document type: Report
The Energy Transition Opportunity: Emerging Green Jobs in Jharkhand
The report analyzes the employment opportunities arising from Jharkhand's energy transition, projecting significant job growth in green molecules, clean power, and clean mobility. It presents two scenarios: an Ambitious Policy Scenario (APS) and an Accelerated Green Transition Scenario (AGTS), estimating that by 2030, the state could create between 392,742 and 630,096 total direct and indirect green jobs. The document emphasizes the need for private investment and specialized skilling to transition a workforce currently heavily reliant on the solid fossil fuel mining sector.
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Document type: Briefing
Landscape of Climate Finance in Nigeria 2024
In 2021/22, Nigeria received USD 2.5 billion in climate finance, a 32% increase from 2019/20, yet this remains far below the estimated annual need of USD 29.7 billion. Public actors provided 70% of the funding, led by multilateral development finance institutions (DFIs), while private finance accounted for 30%, primarily driven by corporate investments in solar PV. Mitigation efforts, particularly in energy systems, dominated the landscape, while adaptation finance reached only USD 735 million, covering just 6% of annual needs. The report highlights a heavy reliance on debt-based financing, which is concerning given Nigeria's high debt-servicing costs. Key barriers include the high cost of capital, a lack of bankable projects, and data gaps. The authors recommend operationalizing the National Climate Change Fund, prioritizing anticipatory adaptation, and pursuing innovative financing such as green bonds and debt-for-climate swaps.
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Document type: Report
Methodology for the Landscape of Climate Finance in Africa
The methodology for the Landscape of Climate Finance in Africa 2024 describes the framework used to identify and categorize climate finance flows. It employs a taxonomy to distinguish between mitigation, adaptation, and dual-benefits finance across sectors such as energy, transport, and agriculture. The approach relies on a mix of public and proprietary data from sources like the OECD, BNEF, and the World Bank, while acknowledging significant gaps in domestic public expenditure tracking and private sector reporting. The document also details the classification of African countries by subregion and income status.
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Document type: Report
Transitioning to Sustainable Mass Transportation Systems
The report outlines a comprehensive strategy for transitioning Nigeria's mass transportation to electric buses, emphasizing the Gross Cost Contract (GCC) as the most viable procurement model. It identifies the transport sector as a major emitter, contributing approximately 15% of national greenhouse gas emissions. Using Lagos as a primary case study, the document details technical specifications for e-buses, charging infrastructure requirements, and the financial benefits of a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) approach. It recommends a phased 24-month implementation plan and policy reforms to encourage local assembly and renewable energy integration for charging.
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Document type: Report