Search Climate Insights Directory

The report finds that Nepal's hydropower sector is currently highly vulnerable to climate variability, particularly smaller run-of-river plants. While future annual energy generation is projected to be relatively robust, climate change is expected to increase hazards such as sediment loads, floods, and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). The study recommends a shift toward a more balanced power mix with increased storage capacity and the adoption of 'low-regret' adaptation options, including improved hydro-meteorological monitoring and early warning systems.

Nepal is addressing its high vulnerability to climate change through a combination of national policies, such as the 2010 National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) and the 2011 Climate Change Policy, and decentralized, bottom-up initiatives like Local Adaptation Plans for Action (LAPAs). The country faces significant risks from increasing temperatures, rainfall variability, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), particularly affecting agriculture, water resources, and energy. While the Government of Nepal has demonstrated strong political leadership in establishing coordinating bodies like the Climate Change Council, there remains a gap in adaptation efforts for public health and urban settlements. Adaptation is heavily supported by international finance, with a strong focus on community-based projects in the agriculture and water sectors, though private sector participation remains minimal.

The report analyzes six snow leopard landscapes in high Asia, finding that while habitat is often well-protected (averaging 50%), critical gaps in connectivity exist. It highlights that climate change will cause warming of 1.7°C to 3.6°C by mid-century, potentially shifting 60-80% of Eastern Himalayan habitats from alpine grasslands to forest ecosystems. The study also identifies the Central Tien Shan as a key 'water tower' providing essential spring runoff to downstream communities, while noting that all landscapes face risks from permafrost melt and shortened winters.

The report analyzes six snow leopard landscapes in Bhutan, India, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Nepal, and Pakistan, finding that while many habitats are protected, critical gaps in connectivity and significant vulnerabilities to climate change persist. Key risks include treeline shifts reducing alpine grasslands, permafrost melt, and increased flood risks from glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). The study emphasizes the necessity of transboundary management and adaptive planning to maintain metapopulation connectivity as warming temperatures shift ecological zones and human land-use patterns.

The report projects warming across all six studied snow leopard landscapes in Central Asia, with varying seasonal precipitation changes. Eastern Nepal, Sikkim, and Bhutan are expected to experience winter warming and wetter monsoons, while South Gobi and Central Tienshan/Sarychat will see summer warming and minimal precipitation increases. The Karakoram-Pamir region is projected to have consistent warming and increased winter precipitation. These shifts are expected to exacerbate risks to snow leopards, including habitat fragmentation, shifting tree lines, and increased human-wildlife conflict.

The document provides a comprehensive review of Pakistan's vulnerability to climate change, focusing on the gap between national policy goals and actual implementation. It identifies critical risks to water, food, and energy security, and notes that while the government has established a National Climate Change Policy and an implementation framework, progress is hindered by weak governance, limited funding, and a lack of capacity at the provincial level following the devolution of responsibilities under the 18th Amendment. The report also catalogues 26 discrete adaptation projects, noting a heavy focus on research and water management, while highlighting significant gaps in health, forestry, and gender-sensitive adaptation.

The report examines the vulnerability of Asia's High Mountains (AHM) to climate change, highlighting risks from glacial melt, extreme weather, and water scarcity. It details the varying responses of mountain ranges—such as the retreat of most glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya versus stability in the Karakorum—and analyzes the resulting threats to human health, agriculture, and infrastructure. The document evaluates current adaptation strategies, including livelihood diversification and community-based water management, while identifying critical data gaps in permafrost and groundwater storage. It concludes with recommendations for regional cooperation in disaster risk management and the synchronization of national and local climate policies.

The study finds that current climate variability already costs Nepal 1.5–2% of its annual GDP, with future climate change projected to add another 2–3% of current GDP per year by mid-century. The most significant drivers of these costs are water-induced disasters, particularly floods. Sectoral analysis indicates that while agriculture faces net losses of approximately 0.8% of current GDP per year by the 2070s, the hydroelectricity sector faces high uncertainty, with projections ranging from increased investment costs of US$2.6 billion due to decreased dry season flows to potential savings of US$170 million if flows increase. To address these risks, the study recommends an iterative adaptation pathway, estimating a need for US$2.4 billion in additional investment by 2030 to mainstream resilience.

The study finds that current climate variability already costs Nepal 1.5–2% of its annual GDP, with future climate change projected to add another 2–3% of current GDP per year by mid-century. Key risks include significant agricultural losses in the Terai region, highly uncertain impacts on hydroelectricity investment costs depending on river flow projections, and a 20–100% increase in the intensity and frequency of high river flows. To address these, the report recommends an iterative adaptation pathway, estimating a need for US$2.4 billion in additional investment by 2030 to mainstream resilience.

The report identifies Pakistan as highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geography, economic dependence on agriculture, and high poverty levels. It evaluates the 2013 National Climate Change Plan (NCCP) and the impact of the 18th Amendment, which devolved environmental responsibility to provinces. The document proposes ten priority action areas across policy, governance, technical capacity, and capacity building, while drawing lessons from adaptation planning in Kenya and the Dominican Republic.

The document serves as a technical and strategic manual for Nepal's delegation to the UNFCCC. It explains the institutional structure of the climate regime, analyzes Nepal's high vulnerability to climate change—particularly in the Himalayas—and outlines national policies like the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). It details Nepal's engagement with mechanisms such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and REDD+, while advocating for a 1.5°C global warming limit and increased, direct climate finance for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and mountain nations.

The document examines climate change in Nepal, highlighting the region's high vulnerability due to diverse topography and reliance on rain-fed agriculture. It analyzes the risks of rapid-onset disasters like floods and slow-onset disasters like drought and forest fires, while advocating for a shift from rigid structural controls to flexible, community-based adaptive capacities.

The study concludes that human-induced climate change made the March-April 2022 heatwave in India and Pakistan approximately 30 times more likely and about 1
C hotter than in a pre-industrial climate. The event, defined as a 1-in-100-year occurrence in today's climate, caused at least 90 deaths, triggered glacial lake outburst floods in northern Pakistan, and led to significant wheat crop yield losses in India, prompting a wheat export ban. The researchers warn that at 2
C of global warming, such heatwaves will become an additional factor of 2-20 more likely and 0.5-1.5
C hotter. Vulnerability is highest among outdoor daily wage earners and urban poor in informal settlements, though the report notes that Heat Action Plans in India, now covering 130 cities, can effectively reduce mortality.