Adaptation to Climate Change in the Hydroelectricity Sector in Nepal

The report finds that Nepal's hydropower sector is currently highly vulnerable to climate variability, particularly smaller run-of-river plants. While future annual energy generation is projected to be relatively robust, climate change is expected to increase hazards such as sediment loads, floods, and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). The study recommends a shift toward a more balanced power mix with increased storage capacity and the adoption of 'low-regret' adaptation options, including improved hydro-meteorological monitoring and early warning systems.

• Current climate and hydrological variability pose a significant challenge to Nepal's hydropower sector, with smaller run-of-river (RoR) plants being the most affected. This vulnerability leads to high economic costs through reduced revenue, penalties for operators, and national-level power outages.
• Future climate projections for Nepal indicate a robust trend of increasing temperatures, while precipitation projections are more uncertain. Most models agree on an increase in monsoon precipitation and a rise in precipitation extremes, although there is no consensus on winter precipitation changes.
• The primary risk from future climate change is the increase in climate-induced hazards rather than a decrease in overall annual energy generation. Key threats include increased sediment loads, extreme floods, and geo-hazards such as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and Landslide-induced Dam Outburst Floods (LDOFs).
• Nepal's current power system has an inefficient capacity mix, relying too heavily on RoR projects. To meet future demand and improve reliability, the optimal share of storage hydropower projects in total installed capacity should increase to approximately 46-47%.
• Adaptation strategies should be tailored to specific plants and locations rather than using a 'one size fits all' approach. The study identifies 'low-regret' options for existing plants that provide immediate benefits, such as improved hydro-met data, real-time sediment monitoring, and early warning systems.
• For planned plants, the report advocates for 'climate-smart planning' that emphasizes flexible or robust design options and phased adaptation to manage uncertainty and balance upfront costs against long-term benefits.
• Significant institutional and economic barriers hinder adaptation, including a lack of reliable hydro-meteorological data (especially above 3000m), insufficient coordination between government agencies, and a lack of financial incentives for private developers to invest in long-term resilience.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (2017). Adaptation to Climate Change in the Hydroelectricity Sector in Nepal. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/1_0_TAAS-0045-Final-Report.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. Adaptation to Climate Change in the Hydroelectricity Sector in Nepal. 2017. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/1_0_TAAS-0045-Final-Report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=Adaptation to Climate Change in the Hydroelectricity Sector in Nepal |date=2017 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/1_0_TAAS-0045-Final-Report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetwork2017adaptation, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{Adaptation to Climate Change in the Hydroelectricity Sector in Nepal}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2017}, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/1_0_TAAS-0045-Final-Report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }