Search Climate Insights Directory

The document analyzes four global scenarios—Sustainable World, Growth World, Divided World, and World at War—to project Africa's trajectory by 2050. The Sustainable World scenario is identified as the most beneficial, offering the highest GDP per capita, the lowest extreme poverty rates, and reduced inequality through social grants and gender empowerment. Conversely, the World at War and Divided World scenarios are described as detrimental, constraining growth and increasing poverty. Across all scenarios, carbon emissions from fossil fuels are expected to rise due to low energy availability and population growth. Geopolitically, Africa's influence remains limited by internal fragmentation and low state capacity, though the African Union could potentially increase the continent's 'soft power' if it achieves a unified global voice.

Carbon Market Watch criticizes the European Commission's proposed reforms to the ETS2 Market Stability Reserve (MSR2), arguing that removing the 'sunset clause' and increasing allowance releases would create a 'carbon bomb' that threatens EU climate goals. While the European Parliament has proposed mitigating some of these risks by reinstating a partial expiry date for allowances and increasing funding for the Social Climate Fund, the author contends that the system still allows for too much pollution. The document urges policymakers to make the earmarking of MSR2 auction revenues for vulnerable households mandatory and to conduct a full impact assessment of the reforms.

The document examines the intersection of trade, climate change, and industrial policy in Africa, warning that the emerging green economy risks confining the continent to a role as a raw material supplier. It highlights a 'credibility gap' where advanced economies use industrial subsidies and carbon regulations while developing nations are historically discouraged from doing so. The author advocates for a development-centered reform of the multilateral trading system, the utilization of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) for regional value chains, and the application of the principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities' to ensure climate governance supports African industrial sovereignty and economic diversification.

Health organizations are calling on the Saskatchewan government to adhere to the 2030 coal phase-out, citing severe health risks from air pollution and the economic viability of renewable energy alternatives.

The document asserts that climate disinformation in Europe is an industrialised threat that distorts public debate, delays clean energy investment, and weakens crisis response. It highlights a failure in regulatory enforcement across the EU and UK, noting that while instruments like the Digital Services Act exist, they are unevenly applied. The authors advocate for limiting algorithmic amplification of misleading content and increasing media scrutiny to protect the conditions necessary for collective climate action.

The report argues that Wales represents a significant untapped opportunity for abandoned mine methane (AMM) recovery, accounting for approximately half of the UK's modelled AMM emissions. While the UK has 16 operational AMM sites generating £2.3 million in gross profit, Wales has no active projects. The document highlights that South Wales anthracite coalfields are among the most methane-rich in Britain, with potential to generate 880 GWh of electricity and £19.5 million in profit by 2050. However, growth is hindered by a reliance on outdated 2010 DEFRA estimates and a lack of direct, site-level measurement. The report recommends that the Welsh Government mandate direct measurement, prohibit routine venting and flaring, and introduce financial incentives such as guaranteed tariffs and tax credits, citing successful models in France and Germany.

The EU petrochemical industry, a €635 billion sector employing 1.2 million people, is facing a deep structural crisis characterized by ageing assets, high energy costs, and intensifying global competition. The industry is physically organized around approximately 150 chemical parks, with the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Rhine-Ruhr corridor serving as the world's densest concentration of production. However, the EU's global market share in chemical sales fell from 21% in 2009 to 13% in 2024, while China now accounts for 46% of global sales. The sector is experiencing a 'closure wave' of steam crackers—the central units for producing ethylene, propylene, butadiene, and aromatics—due to their 1970s-era scale and high carbon exposure under the EU ETS. Between 2022 and 2025, the industry lost approximately 37 Mt of production capacity, and investment CAPEX dropped from €7.6 billion in 2022 to €1.5 billion in 2025. The report highlights acute vulnerabilities in the supply of primary 'building block' molecules, noting that the EU produces less than 10% of global primary petrochemical capacity and is increasingly dependent on imports for molecules like methanol, where domestic production covers less than 15% of consumption.

The report evaluates methane abatement in Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Brazil, Egypt, Ghana, Libya, Mexico, and Nigeria, focusing on leak detection and repair (LDAR), vapor recovery units (VRUs), improved flaring practices, and replacing gas-driven pneumatic equipment. Using a bottom-up marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) approach, the study finds that most mitigation measures fall below a low-cost threshold of 596 USD/tCH4 (20 USD/tCO2e). The economic viability of these measures is heavily dependent on the ability to monetize recovered gas, with LDAR and pneumatic equipment replacement often yielding negative marginal costs (net savings) when gas prices are sufficiently high. The report identifies significant structural barriers, including infrastructure gaps and limited local technical capacity, and recommends a combination of regulatory frameworks, targeted financial incentives, and infrastructure investment to accelerate deployment.

The report argues that Canada's historical advantage of low-cost electricity is at risk due to outdated grid infrastructure, cautious energy planning, and policy instability. By comparing Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec with international peers like Texas and Germany, the analysis finds that Canadian grids often under-plan for industrial growth and lag in flexibility and transmission capacity. The document recommends that the federal government support interprovincial coordination, provide targeted funding for grid expansion, ensure a stable Clean Electricity Regulation, and prioritize grid flexibility to maintain industrial competitiveness.

The report argues that reliance on fossil fuels creates unstable government revenues, locks countries into outdated infrastructure, and exposes them to stranded asset risks as global energy systems shift. It categorizes African economies into export-dominant, import-dependent, and dual-role types, noting that no single transition pathway fits all. To mitigate these risks, the document advocates for diversification into manufacturing, agro-processing, digital services, and the domestic processing of transition minerals. It outlines a phased transition timeline from 2026 to beyond 2045, emphasizing that domestic governance reforms must be supported by international cooperation to reduce the 'African premium' on borrowing costs and improve technology access.

The report introduces Green Economic Populism (GEP), a framework that argues the affordability crisis is a structural challenge intensified by the climate crisis. It posits that reducing dependence on volatile fossil fuels can lower costs for working people across energy, food, health, housing, and transportation. The document provides polling data showing that 70% of US voters believe economic policy can simultaneously lower costs and reduce emissions, and 55% want coordinated policies to address both. It highlights successful political campaigns and labor actions in cities and states such as New York City, Seattle, New Jersey, Georgia, and Missouri that centered the intersection of climate action and material needs, such as rent stabilization, utility price controls, and decarbonized public infrastructure.

Chile's mining sector, dominated by copper and lithium, contributes up to 14% of the national GDP and 58% of total exports. While the country is a global leader in copper production via the state-owned Codelco, it faces significant environmental challenges, particularly extreme water scarcity in the Antofagasta region where mining accounts for 50%–65% of regional water withdrawals. The sector is increasingly relying on desalination to meet demand. Socially, women's participation in the mining workforce remains low at 10%. Economically, Chile is pursuing a National Lithium Strategy to increase domestic value addition and public partnerships, while maintaining strong export ties, particularly with China.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo's economy is heavily reliant on mining, particularly copper and cobalt, which generate over 90% of mining revenues. While the country possesses vast hydropower potential, electricity access remains limited to 19% of the population. The sector is characterized by a mix of large-scale mining and significant artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM), the latter of which is linked to conflict minerals (3TG) in the east. Infrastructure development is currently focused on strategic corridors like the Lobito Corridor and the TAZARA rehabilitation to improve export logistics.

The South African Wholesale Electricity Market (SAWEM) is a proposed short-term trading platform for bulk electricity, expected to commence at the end of 2026. Governed by the Market Code and Rules, it allows power producers and large buyers to trade electricity one day ahead or in real-time. While intended to increase competition and transparency, concerns are raised regarding the conflict of interest since the Market Operator is housed within the National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA), a subsidiary of Eskom. The document highlights that the market's design could either facilitate a transition to affordable renewable energy or entrench fossil fuel generation and financial risks for municipalities.

The report examines the state of Colombia's electricity transmission infrastructure in 2025, highlighting a critical gap between the rapid expansion of renewable energy generation and the slow deployment of the transmission grid. It details the regulatory structure of the National Interconnected System (SIN), the processes for capacity allocation, and the systemic delays in project execution caused by socio-environmental and licensing hurdles. The document warns that the system is approaching operational limits, with significant short-circuit capacity exhaustion and regional grid strain, particularly in the Caribbean area. It emphasizes the need to implement a strategic portfolio of 98 projects to ensure the energy transition and meet long-term demand projections.

The report finds that while the 2022 consultation law has enabled some marginal influence, it often fails to provide meaningful impact on central issues. Major deficiencies include late involvement of Sámi representatives, inadequate timeframes, and a tendency for authorities to delegate responsibility to third-party applicants. The study highlights a significant 'educational burden' placed on Sámi parties to explain the law to officials and notes that many critical land-use matters remain exempt from the law's scope.

The document analyzes fossil fuel subsidies in Brazil and Colombia, advocating for the creation of national inventories and a prioritized reform roadmap. It highlights the inefficiency of certain production subsidies, such as Brazil's REPETRO, and suggests redirecting savings toward renewable energy and social equity. Using regional examples, it warns against abrupt reforms, as seen in Bolivia, and recommends progressive, well-communicated strategies similar to those in Ecuador.

The document argues that Indonesia's critical minerals industry, particularly nickel, is characterized by 'green extractivism' where global decarbonization narratives mask local ecological destruction and human rights abuses. It highlights the role of National Strategic Projects (PSN) in bypassing environmental protections and the heavy dominance of Chinese capital and technology in the supply chain. The report documents severe impacts including fatal workplace accidents, massive deforestation in North Maluku, health crises such as spikes in respiratory infections, and the systemic impoverishment of local communities.

The report presents a business case for transitioning to an electrified economy, asserting that electricity is becoming the foundation for global economic growth. It highlights that electrification is the most efficient route to decarbonization, capable of displacing approximately 60% of global fossil fuel use. The document outlines the benefits of electrification in terms of cost predictability, energy security, and public health, while identifying significant barriers such as distorted market incentives and a global skills gap. It proposes ten policy principles for governments to unlock business investment and introduces the 'Electric Advantage' program to coordinate business leadership in modernizing policy and scaling deployment.

European agriculture's heavy reliance on synthetic nitrogen fertiliser, produced primarily from natural gas, creates a direct link between energy price shocks and food costs. Analysis of 17 EU member states from 2019-2024 reveals that EUR 16.4 billion was spent on fertiliser that was never taken up by crops, with EUR 6.1 billion spent on the embedded natural gas for that wasted input. Environmental damage from synthetic nitrogen application during this period is estimated at EUR 233.7 billion, dominated by water pollution. The report argues that reducing synthetic nitrogen use by up to 43% through precision management and legume integration could save farmers up to EUR 5.08 billion annually and significantly reduce gas dependency. Modeling shows that the post-Ukraine invasion energy crisis pushed wheat prices up by approximately 22%, establishing a lasting structural link between energy and food prices.