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The report examines the decarbonisation of Brazil's cement and steel sectors, highlighting the role of low-carbon hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, and green finance in achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

The report analyzes the decarbonization pathways for Brazil's cement and steel sectors, highlighting the role of emerging technologies like low-carbon hydrogen and carbon capture, the impact of international regulations like the EU's CBAM, and the availability of green financing instruments to support the industrial transition.

The document advocates for a science-based 2035 NDC for South Korea, proposing a minimum 61% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 2018. It emphasizes that clear, consistent policies across the power, industry, and transport sectors are essential to attract private investment and maintain global competitiveness, particularly in the face of regulations like the EU's CBAM. Key recommendations include accelerating renewable energy deployment to at least 100GW by 2030, phasing out coal power by 2035, strengthening the K-ETS carbon price, and accelerating the electrification of transport and heavy industry.

The policy brief analyzes a June 2025 non-paper from 16 EU member states seeking reforms to the ETS2, the emissions trading system for buildings and road transport. The authors argue that while some suggestions—such as publishing more data and starting auctions early—are low-risk, proposals to modify the MSR2 trigger mechanisms, extend its lifetime beyond 2031, or strengthen price controls would increase the total volume of allowances in the market. Because MSR2 allowances are already additional to the emissions cap, the brief contends that these reforms would lead to higher greenhouse gas emissions, weaken the investment signal for decarbonization, and potentially jeopardize the EU's overall climate goals.

The document examines how Brazil and South Africa use carbon pricing, green bonds, green taxonomies, and central bank regulations to fund their transitions to net zero by 2050. It highlights the inadequacy of current international climate finance, noting that developing countries pay significantly more for multilateral development bank finance and that most climate funding arrives as loans rather than grants. The brief details South Africa's carbon tax and Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), and Brazil's voluntary carbon market and sovereign sustainable bonds. It argues that BRICS nations should use peer learning to scale these tools and collectively advocate for the restructuring of the World Bank and IMF to ensure more affordable and equitable finance for the Global South.

The report examines the financial and regulatory incentives needed to accelerate the decarbonisation of China's steel industry. It highlights a significant investment gap, noting that while pilot regions like Hebei have introduced sector-specific taxonomies and transition plan templates, national-level frameworks remain underdeveloped. The document argues that current incentives are insufficient for steelmakers due to high upfront costs and for financial institutions due to a lack of unified identification standards. It recommends expanding public subsidies, refining the capacity replacement policy to include carbon intensity criteria, and creating demand-side incentives for purchasers of low-carbon steel.

The report argues that allowing African exporters to use Article 6 carbon credits to reduce their EU CBAM liabilities would address equity concerns, retain climate finance within Africa, and provide policy flexibility. It notes that current CBAM regulations only permit deductions for explicit carbon prices (taxes or ETS), making Article 6 credits ineligible. The document highlights the significant economic risks CBAM poses to African GDP and the specific challenges African nations face in implementing traditional carbon pricing due to their emissions profiles and administrative constraints. It concludes with recommendations for the EU to amend its regulations to include high-integrity international credits, specifically those from Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Africa, to align with the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC).

Russia is attempting to form a non-Western climate coalition through BRICS, the SCO, and the EAEU to define 'sovereign' climate priorities that protect its fossil fuel exports. The document argues that Russia's approach is obstructionist, relying on the recalculation of forest carbon sinks to meet neutrality goals on paper rather than implementing genuine mitigation. While Russia pushes for shared carbon markets and 'technological neutrality' to prolong fossil fuel use, its Asian partners have largely rejected deep regulatory harmonisation. Meanwhile, Russian non-fossil fuel exporters maintain independent ESG agendas to remain competitive against foreign carbon border adjustments, despite the government's lack of a domestic carbon price.

Canada is falling behind its major non-U.S. trading partners in the implementation of key climate and sustainable finance policies, particularly in mandatory climate disclosure and the development of a national climate investment taxonomy. While Canada aligns on net zero commitments and carbon pricing, the lack of progress in other areas creates economic friction and risks exposing Canadian businesses to carbon tariffs. The report argues that accelerating these policies will help Canada diversify its trade and identify new growth opportunities in a global economy increasingly aligned on climate fundamentals.

The document warns that reforming the MSR2 before the ETS2 launches in 2027 could lead to an oversupply of allowances, weakening the price signal and jeopardizing the EU's 2030 climate target of a 42% reduction in covered emissions. It argues that high prices should be managed through 'complementary measures'—such as CO2 standards for vehicles and boiler phase-outs—and the strategic use of the Social Climate Fund and €300 billion in ETS2 revenue. The authors contend that existing safeguards, including a 'soft price cap' of approximately €55 per tonne and the early auctioning of 30% more allowances, are sufficient for the initial phase. They caution that any increase in allowance supply must be 'cap neutral' to avoid exceeding the carbon budget.

Russia's climate policy is characterized by a 'hydrocarbon culture' that prioritizes fossil fuel exports over mitigation. While the country has implemented domestic regulations and a pilot emissions trading scheme, there is uncertainty regarding actual greenhouse gas emission reductions. Russia intends to meet its 2060 carbon neutrality target by recalculating forest carbon absorption to offset emissions. Furthermore, the war in Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions have severed climate diplomacy with the West, exacerbating Russian climate obstructionism.

The report examines how transition finance is being leveraged to decarbonise China's steel industry, focusing on the impact of the first subnational regulatory framework introduced in Hebei Province in December 2023. It finds that the market responded quickly to these guidelines, with steel transition loans in Hebei exceeding CNY20bn (USD2.8bn) by the end of 2024. The document estimates that the sector requires at least USD18bn in capex over the next five years to invest in electric arc furnaces (EAF), direct reduced iron (DRI) shaft furnaces, and electrolysers. While large state-owned enterprises lead in transition planning, smaller firms face greater financing gaps. The report recommends that the People's Bank of China introduce further incentives, such as interest subsidies, and that steel companies secure offtake contracts to improve the bankability of green steel projects.

The report evaluates Moldova's progress toward climate neutrality by 2050, identifying 'Some Progress' in most sectors but 'Little Progress' in zero pollution. Key challenges include heavy reliance on energy imports, outdated building stock, linear waste management, and a significant financing gap, while enablers include EU accession aspirations and international donor support.

The report evaluates Ukraine's green transition readiness, identifying 'Significant Progress' in climate change and energy, 'Some Progress' in clean industry, buildings, transport, agriculture, biodiversity, and finance, and 'Little Progress' in zero-pollution, just transition, digitalization, and research and innovation. It emphasizes the need for high-level coordination, a national sustainable finance taxonomy, and the integration of 'build back better' principles into post-war reconstruction to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.

The report argues that the Korean Emissions Trading Scheme (K-ETS) is undermined by a reliance on low-quality international carbon credits, which lead to over-crediting and depressed carbon prices. Using the EU ETS as a benchmark, the authors demonstrate how the EU phased out international credits to prioritize domestic reductions. A specific analysis of cookstove projects eligible for K-ETS finds they likely overestimate emission reductions by a factor of 18.3. The report also highlights systemic issues with hydropower and gas leak reduction projects, including lack of additionality and environmental harm. It recommends that South Korea ban international credits from the K-ETS, strengthen emission caps, and avoid using unreliable bilateral cooperation projects under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement to meet its 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).

The 2024 Independent Assessment finds that Canadian carbon pricing systems are effective, delivering between a third and a half of all projected emissions reductions by 2030. While systems have harmonized in coverage and stringency since 2020, some large-emitter trading systems (LETS) in Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan are at risk of losing effectiveness due to credit oversupply and adverse policy interactions. The report also notes that while LETS generally mitigate competitiveness risks for large emitters, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) face varied exposure, with some sectors like water and truck transportation showing high vulnerability.

The 2024 independent evaluation finds that Canada's carbon pricing systems are effective, contributing between one-third and one-half of all projected emission reductions from climate policies by 2030. While systems are more harmonized than in 2020, the report warns that the rigor of some industrial exchange systems (SEGE) could erode by 2030 due to an oversupply of credits caused by overlapping policies. Coverage is broad, encompassing 77% of national emissions, though gaps remain in heating oil and agricultural fuels. Competitiveness risks for large emitters are generally mitigated through design features and subsidies, while small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs) face varying pressures, partially offset by new federal revenue recycling mechanisms.

Brazil has announced a new NDC targeting a greenhouse gas emissions reduction of 59–67% by 2035 relative to 2005 levels. To achieve this, the government is developing a 2024-2035 Climate Plan consisting of an Adaptation Plan and a Mitigation Plan. The document argues that private sector investment is essential for success and recommends harmonizing sectoral policies, promoting corporate transition plans, and strengthening public-private dialogue. Key focus areas include halting illegal deforestation, decarbonizing agriculture, transitioning energy and industry away from fossil fuels, and implementing a national Emissions Trading System (ETS).

The briefing outlines Brazil's updated NDC targets for 2035 and argues that the successful implementation of these goals depends on a strong 'Plano Clima' and a collaborative relationship with the private sector. It identifies key opportunities and barriers across land use, agriculture, energy, transport, and industry, while proposing mechanisms to increase transparency and corporate transition planning ahead of COP30.

The document provides examples of climate progress to counter pessimism, noting that European Union emissions fell 8% in 2023 and the UK has reduced emissions by over half since 1990. It highlights China's rapid adoption of electric vehicles and its achievement of 2030 renewable targets six years early. In the United States, the text notes that carbon-pricing programs and renewable energy mandates persist at the state level despite federal policy shifts.