Évaluation indépendante des systèmes de tarification du carbone de 2024

The 2024 independent evaluation finds that Canada's carbon pricing systems are effective, contributing between one-third and one-half of all projected emission reductions from climate policies by 2030. While systems are more harmonized than in 2020, the report warns that the rigor of some industrial exchange systems (SEGE) could erode by 2030 due to an oversupply of credits caused by overlapping policies. Coverage is broad, encompassing 77% of national emissions, though gaps remain in heating oil and agricultural fuels. Competitiveness risks for large emitters are generally mitigated through design features and subsidies, while small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs) face varying pressures, partially offset by new federal revenue recycling mechanisms.

• Carbon pricing is effective and is projected to account for between one-third and one-half of all emission reductions attributable to climate policies in 2030.
• The systems are more harmonized in 2024 than during the 2020-2021 evaluation, partly due to the federal benchmark requirements, despite some temporary exemptions for heating oil.
• Carbon pricing systems currently cover 77% of Canada's emissions (excluding the land use, land-use change, and forestry sector), with coverage varying between 41% and 84% by jurisdiction.
• Industrial exchange systems for large emitters (SEGE) are the primary drivers of emission reductions, with potential impacts up to 4.5 times greater than those of fuel carbon pricing.
• There is a risk that the effectiveness of some SEGE systems will decrease by 2030 because overlapping federal and provincial policies may create an oversupply of credits, lowering the marginal cost incentive.
• The average cost of carbon for large emitters in 2024 is approximately $10 per tonne, which is one-eighth of the $80 marginal price, reflecting design choices to protect competitiveness.
• Competitiveness risks for large emitters are generally mitigated; most sectors do not face significant financial distress, and some even generate net benefits through credit production.
• Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) face higher relative costs than large firms, and while the new federal carbon rebate for small businesses helps, high-emission sectors still experience significant financial impacts.
• Lack of transparency regarding credit market data and facility-level performance standards hinders external analysis and may compromise system effectiveness.

APA

Fraser, L., Ross, Sawyer, D., Harrison, S., & Stiebert, S. (2025). Évaluation indépendante des systèmes de tarification du carbone de 2024. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Evaluation-independante-systemes-tarification-carbone-2024.pdf

Chicago

Fraser, Linden, Ross, Dave Sawyer, Sam Harrison, and Seton Stiebert. Évaluation indépendante des systèmes de tarification du carbone de 2024. Canadian Climate Institute, 2025. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Evaluation-independante-systemes-tarification-carbone-2024.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Fraser |first1=Linden |last2=Ross |last3=Sawyer |first3=Dave |last4=Harrison |first4=Sam |last5=Stiebert |first5=Seton |title=Évaluation indépendante des systèmes de tarification du carbone de 2024 |publisher=Canadian Climate Institute |date=March 2025 |url=https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Evaluation-independante-systemes-tarification-carbone-2024.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fraser2025valuation, author = {Fraser, Linden and Ross and Sawyer, Dave and Harrison, Sam and Stiebert, Seton}, title = {{Évaluation indépendante des systèmes de tarification du carbone de 2024}}, institution = {Canadian Climate Institute}, year = {2025}, month = mar, url = {https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Evaluation-independante-systemes-tarification-carbone-2024.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }