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The Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) provides scientific research and technical support to reduce human vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change. Through its Initiative on Transforming Development and Disaster Risk, SEI works to ensure development does not create new risks but instead enhances resilience. The institute supports global frameworks like the Sendai Framework and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, while providing regional support to ASEAN in Southeast Asia and IGAD in Eastern Africa. SEI's capacity-building efforts include developing analytical tools (such as the BalticClimate Toolkit and RISC-KIT), hosting knowledge platforms like weADAPT.org, and sponsoring 'writeshops' for early-career scientists from developing countries.

The document examines climate information services in BRACED countries, noting that while access is increasing, end-users struggle with data quality, inappropriate spatial scales, and poor communication. It details regional weather drivers like the ITCZ in Africa and the monsoon in Asia, and argues for a service-oriented approach that integrates localized, two-way communication into resilience programming to improve decision-making at the community level.

The report evaluates the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) and its peace and security architecture, specifically the Central African Early Warning Mechanism (MARAC) and the Central African Multinational Force (FOMAC). It finds a significant gap between the organization's ambitions and its operational reality, noting that conflict prevention is hampered by a highly centralized, state-focused structure and a narrow military approach to security. The document highlights critical regional threats, including the Boko Haram insurgency, maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea, and the instability in the Central African Republic (CAR). It concludes that ECCAS lacks a credible regional lead nation and a shared vision, remaining heavily dependent on external funding, primarily from the European Union, which undermines regional ownership of the peace and security process.

The report addresses the critical shortage of local climate data in fragile states, where conflict and weak governance often destroy meteorological infrastructure. It categorizes climate information into historical, current, and prospective data, and provides a directory of satellite-based alternatives and international forecasting centers. The document argues that integrating these data into different humanitarian planning horizons—from immediate relief to long-term strategic planning—is essential for sustainable peacebuilding. It concludes by outlining priorities for rebuilding national meteorological services, using examples from Haiti and Sierra Leone.

The document details the creation of the first comprehensive Heat Action Plan in South Asia, implemented by the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation (AMC) in 2013. The plan focuses on an early warning system, public awareness, and healthcare capacity building to protect vulnerable populations from heat-related morbidity and mortality.

The report estimates that making Uganda's infrastructure climate-resilient will cost between US$52-66 million annually by 2020, rising to US$638-1,157 million by 2050. Residential buildings are the most affected sector, accounting for approximately half of all adaptation costs. The study also projects that annual damages from extreme events, if frequency doubles every 25 years, could reach US$738-3,294 million by 2050. Key adaptation priorities include climate-proofing public buildings and developing resilient transport standards.

The document examines how Valenzuela City, a low-lying industrial suburb of Metro Manila, has utilised the Partners for Resilience (PfR) framework to address chronic flooding and livelihood loss. It highlights the transition from short-term disaster response to a holistic approach that incorporates climate science, environmental restoration, and community-led early warning systems. Key successes include the integration of climate-informed contingency planning and the 'GREENING' project for urban land use. However, the study notes that institutional resilience is challenged by local political cycles and leadership changes.

The report argues that climate change acts as a "threat multiplier" in fragile states, exacerbating existing conflict drivers like poverty and weak governance. It proposes a framework for "climate-resilient peacebuilding" based on six principles, including integrated context analysis and a forward-looking approach to planning. The document identifies specific entry points for integration across five peacebuilding dimensions: basic safety and security, political processes, basic services, government functions, and economic revitalization. It also reviews existing international guidance, noting that while some tools integrate climate risks, many others lack this perspective, suggesting that practitioners should integrate climate resilience into existing resources rather than creating new toolkits.

The FCFA Zambia pilot study found that climate information is not currently used for long-term planning or infrastructure decisions in Zambia. While there is high demand for high-resolution projections, decision-makers often overlook the associated uncertainty. The brief recommends investing in 'adaptation ready' science, creating institutional incentives for collaboration between scientists and planners, and adopting interactive engagement methods like gamification to build trust and improve data flow. It also advocates for open data systems to break down departmental silos and the implementation of forecast-based financing to trigger early action before climate disasters occur.

The document examines the application of the Partners for Resilience (PfR) approach in Barangay Potrero, Malabon City, to address chronic flooding. It highlights the importance of localising early warning systems, fostering inter-city cooperation within the Tullahan River Basin, and integrating climate science into community-based disaster risk management.

The author challenges the consensus in international relations that the field can explain but not predict political phenomena. He argues that there is little theoretical basis for distinguishing between explanation and prediction, and that modern data and machine learning make prediction empirically possible. The paper outlines three generations of conflict prediction, from early behavioralist ambitions to current sophisticated early warning systems used by entities like the UN and EU. The author contends that focusing on prediction improves theory testing by moving beyond statistical significance to evaluate whether models can actually reproduce data-generating mechanisms. While acknowledging the challenges of 'black swan' events and non-linear complex systems, he asserts that the alternative to scientific prediction is often reliance on unreliable expert intuition.

The document introduces a study on the 2010 Ahmedabad heat wave, highlighting the city's role as the first in India to develop a comprehensive early warning system and preparedness plan for extreme heat. It outlines the methodology used to calculate excess mortality by comparing death counts from May 2010 against mean counts from May 2009 and 2011.

The document outlines recommendations for government officials in Ahmedabad to build resilience against extreme heat, noting that Ahmedabad is the first Indian city to establish a comprehensive early warning system and preparedness plan for such events.

The document focuses on the vulnerability of outdoor construction workers in Ahmedabad to extreme heat, advocating for coordinated action among government, labor groups, and healthcare providers to mitigate heat stress.

The document focuses on the heightened vulnerability of approximately two million slum residents in Ahmedabad to extreme heat events, noting their increased exposure, susceptibility to health effects, and limited adaptation options.

The document argues that urban health centers and link workers are critical for addressing heat vulnerability in Ahmedabad due to their public access and trust. It emphasizes the need for collaborative systems across government departments to ensure effective early warning communications and data sharing. The brief calls for targeted strategies in surveillance, training, and coordination to increase the resilience of vulnerable populations to rising temperatures in India.

The document details the development of Ahmedabad's Heat Action Plan, a pilot initiative led by a coalition of academic, health, and environmental groups including the NRDC and IIPH. Triggered by a deadly heat wave in May 2010, the plan focuses on early warning systems, community outreach, and capacity building for health workers. Key successes include strong municipal leadership and the use of scientific research to identify vulnerable groups, such as slum dwellers and outdoor workers. The document highlights the importance of interagency coordination and the need to treat heat waves as natural disasters to secure political will and funding.

The document examines the disconnect between India's national and state-level disaster and climate policies, which often operate in silos. Through research in Barmer and Leh, it highlights how climate change is increasing the frequency of flash floods and 'invisible disasters'—small-scale events that go unreported. The briefing argues that local multi-stakeholder platforms, community-led knowledge sharing (such as 'weather schools' and radio programmes), and the use of post-disaster 'windows of opportunity' can help harmonise DRR and adaptation efforts and influence national policy.

The 'Community-Led Disaster Risk Reduction' project in Mongu, Zambia, sought to enhance resilience to floods and droughts by strengthening community management capacity and promoting livelihood diversification. The review recommends that Oxfam and partners conduct further research on the impact of project-related advocacy, improve the inclusivity of community members in drought preparedness, and ensure the full dissemination of training and early-warning information.

The 'Minimum Standards for local climate-smart disaster risk reduction' guide establishes a framework for integrating future climate-related risks into local disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities. It provides two sets of standards: one for community-level implementation and another for civil society organizations (CSOs) or local government authorities supporting those communities. The guide emphasizes moving beyond 'business as usual' by utilizing weather forecasts, seasonal projections, and vulnerability assessments to create adaptive action plans.