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The report highlights a significant increase in Indonesia's captive coal power capacity, which grew from 1.4 GW in 2013 to 10.8 GW in 2023. This expansion is primarily driven by the metal industry, particularly nickel and aluminium smelters, as part of a national strategy to increase the added value of natural resources. The authors argue that the government's current energy transition efforts focus too narrowly on the utility grid, ignoring the substantial emissions from captive plants. They recommend that the USD 20 billion Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) funding be used to establish a clear retirement pathway for these industrial coal plants to avoid significant health and economic burdens.

The document highlights a surge in 'captive' coal power—plants operated off-grid by industrial users—which grew from 1.4 GW in 2013 to 10.8 GW in 2023. A vast majority of this capacity is dedicated to metal smelting, particularly nickel and aluminium, often justified by policies to increase the 'value add' of natural resources. The report warns that while Indonesia is a key supplier of minerals for the global energy transition, the reliance of these smelters on coal contradicts national climate targets and the goals of the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). It recommends integrating the phase-out of captive coal power into national plans to avoid significant health costs and carbon emissions.

The report estimates that annual climate finance needs will rise to USD 6.2 trillion by 2030 and USD 7.3 trillion by 2050 to achieve Net Zero, while tracked global finance only surpassed USD 1 trillion for the first time in 2022. Transport and energy systems represent the largest investment needs, requiring at least USD 3.2 trillion and USD 2.1 trillion annually, respectively. The study highlights a significant disparity in finance distribution, with 75% of global spend concentrated in East Asia and the Pacific, Europe, and North America. It argues that public finance must act as a catalyst to mobilize private capital, particularly in developing economies where the cost of capital is significantly higher. While private sector commitments are growing—such as the 30 largest banks pledging USD 870 billion annually—the report notes that asset managers and owners have been slower to set quantifiable targets. Key recommendations include aligning stakeholder policies, supporting non-commercially viable technologies like CCUS and green hydrogen, and implementing just transition frameworks.

The report analyzes India's vulnerability in the lithium supply chain, characterized by high import dependence and geographical concentration of production and processing in China. It forecasts a significant surge in lithium demand between 2022 and 2030, driven primarily by electric vehicles and grid storage. To mitigate risks, the report recommends a multi-pronged strategy: streamlining domestic exploration in states like Jammu and Kashmir, forming strategic partnerships with mineral-rich nations such as Australia and Argentina, leveraging state-owned enterprises like KABIL to support private sector offtake, and incentivizing the development of domestic lithium refineries and recycling infrastructure.

The report examines India's strategic position in the electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chain, identifying opportunities in mineral processing and cell manufacturing. It analyzes key investment drivers—such as guaranteed demand, infrastructure, and policy incentives—and evaluates India's comparative advantages, including low labor costs and a strong chemical sector, against challenges like critical mineral dependency and the need for more upfront capital subsidies to attract multinational firms.

The report analyzes the critical minerals ecosystem in the SADC region, emphasizing the need to move beyond 'used futures'—historical patterns of colonial extraction and corruption—toward a sustainable transition. It identifies key driving forces across social, technological, economic, environmental, political, and values (STEEP-V) dimensions, such as the risk of 'resource curse' and geopolitical competition between China, the US, and the EU. Through stakeholder workshops, the authors develop four potential scenarios for 2035, ranging from 'Dawn of Empowered Transformation' to 'Shadows of Exploitation'. The document advocates for anticipatory governance, regional collaboration, and a shift toward circular economy principles to ensure that the green energy transition benefits local communities and the environment rather than perpetuating historical inequalities.

The report critiques the current linear economy and the limitations of the conventional circular economy, proposing instead a 'resource-balanced economy' (RBE) for the SADC region. It argues that the green transition's demand for critical minerals is underestimated and faces thermodynamic and material constraints. To avoid 'financial capture' and poverty traps, the authors advocate for 'anticipatory governance'—a proactive, systems-based approach to policymaking—alongside bioregionalism, re-localisation, and the renegotiation of resource trade agreements to ensure equitable and sustainable development.

The report argues that the SADC region must move beyond 'business-as-usual' mining models to avoid repeating past failures of fragile growth and inequality. It proposes a transition toward a 'resource-balanced economy' (RBE) and a 'cooperative economy' through five strategic priorities: investing in advanced geological surveying, building mineral stewardship competencies, developing regional value chains, embedding anticipatory governance, and strengthening regulatory transparency. The authors advocate for systemic innovations, including the use of digital currencies to formalise artisanal mining, the creation of a regional metal exchange, and a shift away from US dollar reliance in trade to reduce exogenous shocks.

The report examines the SADC region's role in the global energy transition, focusing on critical minerals like copper, lithium, cobalt, graphite, manganese, nickel, and rare earth elements. It highlights the risk of SADC countries remaining raw material suppliers unless they implement robust governance and strategic value-addition policies. The analysis covers the geostrategic influence of China, the US, and the EU, while providing country-specific case studies and recommendations for regional value chain development.

The 2023 Zimbabwean general election is framed as a high-stakes contest between incumbent Emmerson Mnangagwa (ZANU-PF) and Nelson Chamisa (CCC), with significant implications for the country's democratic legitimacy and its ability to re-engage with Western nations. The author notes a decline in voter intention and female candidacy compared to 2018, alongside an electoral environment skewed in favor of the ruling party through control of state institutions and exclusionary financial barriers. Internationally, the election is viewed as a test of Zimbabwe's willingness to return to democratic norms, which is critical for debt clearance processes and the export of strategic minerals like lithium essential for the global energy transition.

The document argues that while Africa's shift toward renewable energy is essential for climate goals and poverty reduction, it risks a "green resource curse" where green energy projects and mineral mining fuel conflict. It identifies three primary conflict trajectories: the establishment of projects (often involving land disputes and "green grabbing"), the mining of critical minerals (linked to weak institutions and rebel financing), and energy production (related to grid access and geopolitical shifts). While most conflicts are local and non-violent, the authors warn of potential for large-scale civil unrest and geopolitical tensions as the global energy balance shifts away from fossil fuels.

The document advocates for 'anticipatory governance' in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to manage the surge in demand for critical minerals like cobalt, lithium, and graphite. It proposes moving away from extractive-centered development toward a 'Resource Balanced Economy' (RBE) that accounts for energy constraints and resource flow. Key recommendations include creating a new social contract for mining, innovating financial systems to reduce risk ratings and illicit flows, and adopting 'bioregionalism' to develop regional value chains and reduce dependence on external manufacturing centers.

The document examines the 'new geopolitics' of mineral supply chains, driven by the energy transition and geopolitical instability. It highlights the increasing demand for critical minerals—which the IEA expects to quadruple by 2040—and the resulting shift by industrialised states, such as the EU, to reduce dependencies on single sources like China. Given that significant deposits of these 'green' minerals are located in Africa, the text explores how African economies can leverage this shift to maximise their own benefits as the world moves away from fossil fuels.

The author argues that Canada's goal to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies may conflict with its plans to cap oil and gas emissions and maintain sustainable jobs. To resolve this, the document suggests a rigorous framework to ensure public funds are not wasted on assets that may become stranded due to declining global demand. The proposed framework evaluates project alignment with net-zero scenarios, comparative economic value against clean energy alternatives, impacts on worker and community vulnerability, and the matching of policy instruments to project risk levels.

Zambia is seeking approximately $8 billion in debt relief under the G20 Common Framework to address a public debt estimated at nearly $34 billion by the end of 2021. The process has been slowed by disagreements among the Official Creditors Committee, including tensions between China and the United States, and the reluctance of private-sector creditors. To mitigate the impact of austerity measures required by IMF and World Bank programs, the document recommends protecting the poor and unemployed from the removal of electricity, fuel, and agricultural subsidies. The briefing argues that debt restructuring should be linked to the global energy transition by securing investment in copper and other critical minerals like cobalt, lithium, and nickel. Additionally, it proposes 'debt for nature swaps' to fund mine rehabilitation, climate-smart agriculture, and ecosystem preservation.

The report examines the current state of mining taxation and proposes ten innovative policy ideas to increase government revenue. It highlights the shift toward critical minerals for the energy transition and the risks posed by automation and profit shifting. The proposed ideas include minimum profit sharing, production sharing contracts, state equity, state-owned enterprises, variable royalties, the 'Sixth Method' for transfer pricing, carbon pricing, development taxes for communities, competitive bidding for licenses, and remote monitoring for quarries. It also provides a framework for evaluating these reforms and discusses the legal challenges associated with fiscal stabilization clauses and international investment treaties.

The document argues that traditional mining tax regimes (corporate income tax and royalties) are often insufficient or vulnerable to profit shifting. It proposes ten alternatives, including variable royalties, production sharing contracts, and state equity participation, while addressing the impact of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the need for better production monitoring through remote sensing technology.

The guide examines the current state of mining taxation, highlighting challenges such as base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS), and proposes ten innovative policy ideas to improve revenue mobilization. These include minimum profit shares, production sharing contracts, variable royalties, and the 'Sixth Method' for transfer pricing. It also addresses the impact of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and suggests the implementation of domestic carbon pricing and remote monitoring technologies for industrial minerals. The document emphasizes the need for transparent governance, professional board management for state-owned enterprises, and a balanced approach to fiscal stability clauses to ensure sustainable development.

Carbon mineralization is a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) process that accelerates the reaction between CO2 and alkaline minerals in mafic or ultramafic rocks to create solid carbonates. The document outlines in-situ (subsurface) and ex-situ (surface) approaches, noting that while the process can permanently sequester CO2 and offer co-benefits like strengthening concrete or reducing ocean acidification, it faces challenges including high energy requirements for mining and grinding, potential heavy metal contamination, and a lack of standardized measurement and monitoring protocols.

The document outlines five critical policy elements—supply chain traceability, material transport and storage, manufacturing and production, recycling, and reusing—necessary to transition from a linear to a circular EV battery economy. It highlights that current economic conditions often make virgin material extraction cheaper than recycling, necessitating government intervention to catalyze investment and standardize regulations. The brief emphasizes the need for federal guidelines in the US to replace the current piecemeal state-level approach and suggests aligning with global best practices to ensure the economic viability of battery repurposing and recycling.