The New Geopolitics of Mineral Supply Chains: A Window of Opportunity for African Countries

This research paper examines the evolving geopolitics of mineral supply chains, specifically how industrialised states are seeking to reduce dependencies on certain countries following the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It focuses on the potential for African economies to benefit from this restructuring as the global transition to renewable energy increases the demand for critical minerals.

• Industrialised states are revising their geopolitical perspectives to reduce strong dependencies on specific countries for raw materials, a shift accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For example, the European Union's proposed Critical Raw Materials Act aims to diversify sources of processed minerals to reduce its reliance on China.
• The transition to renewable energy is driving a significant increase in the demand for minerals and metals. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that demand for minerals used in green energy technologies will quadruple by 2040 to meet the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement targets, and could increase up to six times by 2040 if global climate neutrality is pursued by 2050.
• Despite advancements in recycling and research into renewable substitutes for critical raw materials, these efforts are not expected to satisfy global demand in the short to medium term, ensuring that the mining sector remains essential.
• There is a observable shift in extraction focus from fossil fuels toward 'green' minerals, a significant portion of which are located in Africa, presenting opportunities for African economies to provide materials for the energy transition.
• Global trade is moving away from the era of 'hyper-globalisation'—which prioritised free cross-border trade and capital movements without regulatory constraints—toward a politicisation of supply chains and a trend of regionalising value chains.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2023). The New Geopolitics of Mineral Supply Chains: A Window of Opportunity for African Countries. https://saiia.org.za/research/the-new-geopolitics-of-mineral-supply-chains-a-window-of-opportunity-for-african-countries/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. The New Geopolitics of Mineral Supply Chains: A Window of Opportunity for African Countries. 2023. https://saiia.org.za/research/the-new-geopolitics-of-mineral-supply-chains-a-window-of-opportunity-for-african-countries/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=The New Geopolitics of Mineral Supply Chains: A Window of Opportunity for African Countries |date=29 July 2023 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/the-new-geopolitics-of-mineral-supply-chains-a-window-of-opportunity-for-african-countries/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2023new, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{The New Geopolitics of Mineral Supply Chains: A Window of Opportunity for African Countries}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2023}, month = jul, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/the-new-geopolitics-of-mineral-supply-chains-a-window-of-opportunity-for-african-countries/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }