The New Geopolitics of Mineral Supply Chains: A Window of Opportunity for African Countries

The document examines the 'new geopolitics' of mineral supply chains, driven by the energy transition and geopolitical instability. It highlights the increasing demand for critical minerals—which the IEA expects to quadruple by 2040—and the resulting shift by industrialised states, such as the EU, to reduce dependencies on single sources like China. Given that significant deposits of these 'green' minerals are located in Africa, the text explores how African economies can leverage this shift to maximise their own benefits as the world moves away from fossil fuels.

• The transition to renewable energy and the goal of global climate neutrality are driving a massive increase in mineral demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that demand for minerals for green energy technologies will quadruple by 2040 to meet Paris Agreement targets, and could increase up to six times by 2040 to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.
• Industrialised states are revising their geopolitical perspectives to reduce dependencies on specific countries for raw materials. Specifically, the European Union's proposed Critical Raw Materials Act aims to diversify its sources of processed minerals, reducing its current heavy reliance on China.
• Despite improvements in recycling and research into renewable substitutes, these measures are not expected to satisfy global demand in the short to medium term, ensuring that the mining sector remains critical.
• There is a visible global shift in extraction focus from fossil fuels toward 'green' minerals, many of which are located in Africa, presenting a potential economic opportunity for the continent.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2023). The New Geopolitics of Mineral Supply Chains: A Window of Opportunity for African Countries. https://saiia.org.za/research/the-new-geopolitics-of-mineral-supply-chains-a-window-of-opportunity-for-african-countries/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. The New Geopolitics of Mineral Supply Chains: A Window of Opportunity for African Countries. 2023. https://saiia.org.za/research/the-new-geopolitics-of-mineral-supply-chains-a-window-of-opportunity-for-african-countries/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=The New Geopolitics of Mineral Supply Chains: A Window of Opportunity for African Countries |date=29 July 2023 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/the-new-geopolitics-of-mineral-supply-chains-a-window-of-opportunity-for-african-countries/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2023new, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{The New Geopolitics of Mineral Supply Chains: A Window of Opportunity for African Countries}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2023}, month = jul, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/the-new-geopolitics-of-mineral-supply-chains-a-window-of-opportunity-for-african-countries/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }