Anticipatory Governance of Critical Minerals in SADC: Strategic Policy Pathways for 2035

The document advocates for 'anticipatory governance' in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to manage the surge in demand for critical minerals like cobalt, lithium, and graphite. It proposes moving away from extractive-centered development toward a 'Resource Balanced Economy' (RBE) that accounts for energy constraints and resource flow. Key recommendations include creating a new social contract for mining, innovating financial systems to reduce risk ratings and illicit flows, and adopting 'bioregionalism' to develop regional value chains and reduce dependence on external manufacturing centers.

• The World Bank anticipates a potential increase of nearly 500% in the extraction of metals and minerals such as cobalt, lithium, and graphite by 2050, driven by low-carbon energy technologies.
• Southern African countries are primary global suppliers of critical minerals, with the Democratic Republic of Congo producing approximately 70% of the world's cobalt, while Zimbabwe and Namibia hold some of the largest lithium deposits globally.
• The document proposes a 'Resource Balanced Economy' (RBE) as an evolution of the Circular Economy, arguing that the latter often ignores the energy costs of extraction and recycling. The RBE focuses on maximizing resource efficiency while considering logistical energy constraints through six components: resource accounting, management of dynamic equilibrium, strategic design, statistical entropy/material flow analysis, biophysical signatures, and the evolution of technology applications.
• Anticipatory governance is recommended as a proactive approach to decision-making that uses complex systems thinking and exploratory foresight scenarios to address uncertainties, mitigate risks, and avoid the pitfalls of traditional linear thinking in the critical minerals sector.
• To combat high-risk ratings, currency devaluation, and illicit financial flows, the authors suggest rethinking financial innovations, including the use of commodity-backed finance systems, diversifying currencies, and adopting stable digital currencies to ensure fair trade.
• The brief advocates for 'bioregionalism' and re-localisation in regional value chains to prevent SADC countries from remaining mere raw material suppliers and to protect local communities from the negative impacts of aggressive extraction.

APA

CLOETE, D., JENTEL, L., MZINYATI, L., WOLF, N., BENKENSTEIN, A., & JOSEPH, A. (2023). Anticipatory Governance of Critical Minerals in SADC: Strategic Policy Pathways for 2035. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/SAIIA_PB_279_AnticipatoryGovernanceCriticalMinerals.pdf

Chicago

CLOETE, DEON, LETITIA JENTEL, LITHA MZINYATI, NDEAPO WOLF, ALEX BENKENSTEIN, and ADRIAN JOSEPH. Anticipatory Governance of Critical Minerals in SADC: Strategic Policy Pathways for 2035. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2023. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/SAIIA_PB_279_AnticipatoryGovernanceCriticalMinerals.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=CLOETE |first1=DEON |last2=JENTEL |first2=LETITIA |last3=MZINYATI |first3=LITHA |last4=WOLF |first4=NDEAPO |last5=BENKENSTEIN |first5=ALEX |last6=JOSEPH |first6=ADRIAN |title=Anticipatory Governance of Critical Minerals in SADC: Strategic Policy Pathways for 2035 |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=August 2023 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/SAIIA_PB_279_AnticipatoryGovernanceCriticalMinerals.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cloete2023anticipatory, author = {CLOETE, DEON and JENTEL, LETITIA and MZINYATI, LITHA and WOLF, NDEAPO and BENKENSTEIN, ALEX and JOSEPH, ADRIAN}, title = {{Anticipatory Governance of Critical Minerals in SADC: Strategic Policy Pathways for 2035}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2023}, month = aug, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/SAIIA_PB_279_AnticipatoryGovernanceCriticalMinerals.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }