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Front Lines: Rising Seas
The document projects that sea levels at NSB Kings Bay will rise between 3.7 and 6.1 feet by the end of the century, leading to more frequent tidal flooding and severe storm surge. Under a highest-scenario Category 4 storm in 2100, nearly 95 percent of the base could be flooded, with over half of that area under 20 feet of water. The author argues that there is a large gap in military preparedness and calls for Congress and the Department of Defense to provide high-resolution modeling, funding for tide gauge networks, and resources for detailed mapping and adaptive planning.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Naval Air Station Key West, Florida
NAS Key West, a 5,800-acre installation providing critical training and support for US military operations, faces significant risks from rising sea levels. Projections for the Florida Keys indicate sea levels could rise between 3.8 and 6.2 feet this century, threatening land that currently sits at elevations of three feet or less. The document argues that a large gap exists between current military preparedness and these threats, calling for increased funding for high-resolution flooding models, tide gauge networks, and detailed mapping to implement long-term adaptive measures.
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Document type: Case study
USCG Sandy Hook
USCG Station Sandy Hook, a critical life-saving and security installation in New Jersey, faces significant risks from rising seas. Projections indicate that by 2100, sea levels in the area could rise between four and 6.4 feet. Under a 'highest' scenario, nearly three-quarters of the station's land area could flood with daily high tides by 2100. Additionally, the area exposed to five feet or more of seawater during Category 1 storm surges is projected to increase from 30% today to roughly 80% by 2100 under an intermediate scenario. The document argues that there is a large gap in military preparedness and calls for increased funding for high-resolution modeling, tide gauge networks, and detailed mapping to implement adaptive measures.
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Document type: Case study
The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas
The Union of Concerned Scientists analyzed 18 strategic US military installations on the East and Gulf coasts, finding that most face significant risks from rising seas. Under a 'highest' scenario of sea level rise, some bases could lose between 75 and 95 percent of their land area by 2100. The report highlights that tidal flooding frequency will increase steeply, and storm surges will reach further inland and with greater depth. It emphasizes the need for high-resolution mapping and regional collaboration, noting that the vulnerability of surrounding low-income and minority communities can further compromise base operations.
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Document type: Executive summary
The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas
The document details the technical approach used by the Union of Concerned Scientists to evaluate coastal flooding risks for US military bases. It describes the use of the NOAA SLOSH model for storm surge, the NOAA Inundation Analysis tool for tidal flooding, and Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) levels for permanent inundation. The analysis utilizes localized sea level rise projections for 2050, 2070, and 2100 based on the 2013 National Climate Assessment. Key caveats include the exclusion of rainfall-induced flooding, the use of worst-case 'Maximum of the Maximum' storm surge scenarios, and the fact that the study provides illustrative snapshots rather than a comprehensive risk assessment of all bases.
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Document type: Report
Trouble in paradise: New initiative transforms tourism in Belize and its threat to the environment
The document highlights that 70% of Belize's tourism sector is vulnerable to climate change, specifically through coastal erosion, floods, and coral die-off. It details a multi-stakeholder initiative by WWF and partners that led to the adoption of an integrated coastal zone management plan in February 2016, which uses economic valuation of marine resources to justify coastal protection. Key recommendations include mainstreaming adaptation into national policy, tailoring climate information to different stakeholders, and ensuring inclusive consultation to secure private sector and community buy-in.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Toward Climate Resilience
The Union of Concerned Scientists proposes a climate resilience framework based on narrowing the 'resilience gap' through combined mitigation and adaptation efforts. The report outlines 15 principles categorized by rigorous science, equitable outcomes, and ambitious common sense to ensure adaptation is scientifically sound and socially just.
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Document type: Report
Sobrevivir y prosperar ante el crecimiento de los mares
The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) identifies a critical need for equitable climate resilience planning in the United States, specifically for frontline coastal communities. The report introduces a screening tool that combines climate risk indicators (sea-level rise and tidal flooding) with socioeconomic data (income, poverty, race, and education) to identify 'climate equity hotspots'. Applying this tool to 35 counties across nine states, the analysis finds that the Gulf Coast and Mid-Atlantic regions face the highest risks, with Orleans Parish, Louisiana, identified as the most vulnerable hotspot. The report argues that current disaster aid often fails marginalized groups due to bureaucratic hurdles and a focus on homeowners over renters. It recommends that federal and state agencies direct funding to high-risk communities, integrate the best available climate science into planning, and increase overall funding for climate resilience.
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Document type: Executive summary
Lights Out?
The report examines how rising sea levels and storm surges threaten critical electricity infrastructure, such as substations and power plants, in five major U.S. coastal regions. It finds that significant portions of the grid are already exposed to flooding, which can lead to widespread and prolonged power outages. The authors argue that current planning relies on outdated historical data and recommend a shift toward decentralized, resilient clean energy systems—including microgrids, energy storage, and combined heat and power plants—alongside infrastructure adaptation strategies like protection, accommodation, and retreat.
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Document type: Report
Storm Surge and Blackouts in Southeastern Virginia, and How Clean Energy Can Help
The report finds that significant portions of the U.S. East and Gulf Coast electricity grids are currently exposed to storm surge, with risks increasing as sea levels rise. In southeastern Virginia, 43 percent of major substations and four power plants are at risk today. The authors advocate for a shift from centralized grids to decentralized, resilient power systems—including microgrids and renewable energy with storage—to maintain critical services during outages and reduce the carbon emissions driving climate change.
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Document type: Report
Lights Out? Storm Surge, Blackouts, and How Clean Energy Can Help
The document describes the methodology for assessing the exposure of power plants and substations to flooding under a Category 3 hurricane scenario across five U.S. coastal regions. It utilizes the National Climate Assessment's Intermediate-High sea level rise scenario and the SLOSH model for storm surge, projecting risks through 2070. The analysis identifies a growing number of 'exposed' facilities, particularly in the Central Gulf Coast and Southeastern Florida, while noting limitations such as the exclusion of small distribution-level substations and the potential for local flood protection measures to mitigate risk.
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Document type: Report
Public Call from Scientists, Economists and Other Scholars Supporting Climate Change Objectives of SB 350 and SB 32
A group of Ph.D. researchers and scholars call upon Governor Brown and California legislators to pass SB 32 and SB 350. The signatories argue that human activity is the primary cause of global warming and that California is already experiencing climate impacts such as increased wildfires and extreme heat waves. They advocate for three specific targets: reducing heat-trapping emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, increasing renewable electricity to 50% by 2030, and reducing transportation petroleum use by 50% by 2030.
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Document type: Statement
‘SAVING FOR A RAINY DAY’: MICRO-INSURANCE AS CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR SIDS
The document examines the vulnerability of coastal sectors in SIDS to climate change and the inadequacy of current coping mechanisms. It proposes micro-insurance as a tool to protect low-income populations from specific perils, identifying barriers such as mistrust and cost, while suggesting policy options like state subsidies and public-private partnerships to implement these schemes.
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Document type: Policy brief
Hurricane Attitudes of Coastal Connecticut Residents: A Segmentation Analysis
The report identifies five segments of coastal Connecticut residents: the First Out, Constrained, Optimists, Reluctant, and Diehards. These groups vary significantly in their perceived risk, actual preparedness, and likelihood of evacuating. While the First Out are the most anxious and likely to leave, the Diehards are the most self-reliant and least likely to evacuate. The analysis highlights that official orders from local police or fire departments are the most effective triggers for evacuation across all groups, though barriers such as pets, health issues, and financial constraints significantly hinder the Constrained and Optimists.
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Document type: Report
Sea Level Rise and Tidal Flooding: Annapolis, Maryland
Annapolis, Maryland, has experienced a more than fourfold increase in tidal flooding since 1970, with the City Dock flooding approximately 50 times per year. Sea levels in Annapolis have risen by over a foot in the last century, more than twice the global average. Projections indicate that by 2045, the city could face over 360 flood events annually. In response, the city is collaborating with agencies such as NOAA, FEMA, and the Army Corps of Engineers to assess vulnerability and study at-risk structures, while the U.S. Naval Academy is coordinating with state and local officials to address sea level rise as a national security issue.
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Document type: Case study
WRI Response to the 2015 State of the Union Address
The World Resources Institute (WRI) responds to the 2015 State of the Union address by endorsing President Obama's science-based approach to climate change. WRI highlights the administration's recent achievements, including a joint emissions commitment with China and a $3 billion pledge to the Green Climate Fund, while urging a continued focus on ambitious power plant standards and renewable energy to drive economic growth and global cooperation.
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Document type: Statement
FACT SHEET How California Is Tackling Global Warming, Cutting Oil Use, and Saving Drivers Money
California's climate strategies, centered on the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, are reducing oil use and emissions from the transportation sector, which accounts for nearly 40% of the state's global warming emissions. Key mechanisms include a cap-and-trade program, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), and stringent vehicle emissions standards. These policies have led to a 12% drop in oil consumption between 2006 and 2012 and are projected to save drivers money through increased fuel efficiency. Additionally, the state is investing carbon permit proceeds into disadvantaged communities and seeing a boom in clean technology investment and patent registrations.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Integrating indigenous knowledge and scientific methods for flood risk analyses, responses and adaptation in rural coastal communities in Nigeria
The report examines the integration of indigenous flood forecasting with scientific tools in the Niger Delta of Nigeria. It details a project that deployed weather stations, flood gauges, and GIS-based risk maps across twenty villages to enhance local risk analysis and adaptation. Findings indicate that rural communities possess specific indigenous techniques for forecasting floods and are aware of the risks posed by sea level rise.
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Document type: Report
National Landmarks at Risk
The report highlights the vulnerability of iconic U.S. landmarks to climate-driven events. It details how sea level rise and storm surges threaten coastal sites like the Statue of Liberty and Jamestown, while increased heat and drought drive destructive wildfires in the West, affecting sites like Mesa Verde. The authors argue that climate resilience must become a national priority, requiring both resource allocation for site protection and a reduction in carbon emissions to mitigate future risks.
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Document type: Executive summary
Social Justice and Adaptation in the UK
The paper examines how climate vulnerability in the UK is concentrated among disadvantaged and socially marginalized groups, such as those on low incomes, particularly regarding high temperatures and flooding. It warns that adaptation efforts relying on market forces or ignoring social vulnerability may lead to maladaptation, reinforcing existing inequalities.
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Document type: Research paper