The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas

The document details the technical approach used by the Union of Concerned Scientists to evaluate coastal flooding risks for US military bases. It describes the use of the NOAA SLOSH model for storm surge, the NOAA Inundation Analysis tool for tidal flooding, and Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) levels for permanent inundation. The analysis utilizes localized sea level rise projections for 2050, 2070, and 2100 based on the 2013 National Climate Assessment. Key caveats include the exclusion of rainfall-induced flooding, the use of worst-case 'Maximum of the Maximum' storm surge scenarios, and the fact that the study provides illustrative snapshots rather than a comprehensive risk assessment of all bases.

• The analysis of storm surge inundation utilized the NOAA SLOSH model and specifically employed the 'Maximum of the Maximum Envelopes of Water' (MOM), which represents a worst-case scenario for each hurricane category.
• Sea level rise projections for the years 2050, 2070, and 2100 were based on the Intermediate-High and Highest scenarios from the 2013 National Climate Assessment, provided via Climate Central.
• Tidal flooding frequency was assessed using NOAA's online Inundation Analysis tool and a five-year baseline period from 2009-2013 to calculate annual averages of minor coastal flooding.
• Permanent inundation was determined by analyzing the changing extent of the Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) level, with future projections calculated as the percentage of 'currently dry land' that would be inundated.
• The study's results may underestimate actual flooding because the SLOSH model does not account for wave setup, run-up, riverine flooding, or rainfall-induced flooding.
• The analysis is illustrative and not comprehensive; it focuses on a selection of military sites chosen with expert consultation rather than all existing bases on the East and Gulf Coasts.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (2016). The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/07/front-lines-of-rising-seas-methodology.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas. 2016. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/07/front-lines-of-rising-seas-methodology.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas |date=July 2016 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/07/front-lines-of-rising-seas-methodology.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientists2016military, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2016}, month = jul, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/07/front-lines-of-rising-seas-methodology.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }