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Decision-Making for Uncertainty: Making Governance Systems "Fit for Purpose"
The author contends that climate change is frequently misclassified as a narrow environmental issue, leading to siloed governance and ineffective decision-making. To address the uncertainty and scale of climate impacts, the document advocates for framing climate change as a central strategic risk, establishing statutory duties for action, creating a Cabinet-level Office of Country Risk, and retraining civil service bureaucracies in systems thinking. It highlights examples of progress, such as the UK's Climate Change Act and the US national security community's view of climate change as a "threat multiplier."
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Document type: Briefing
Decision Making and Climate Change Uncertainty: Setting the Foundations for Informed and Consistent Strategic Decisions
The author argues that climate change adaptation should be treated as a continuous, learning-based process rather than a set of static decisions. The proposed framework rests on four pillars: establishing flexible socio-institutional frameworks, managing knowledge and information, maintaining a portfolio of diverse adaptation options, and implementing continuous monitoring and evaluation. The paper emphasizes the deep interconnection between adaptation and development, suggesting that policies addressing poverty and inequality simultaneously build adaptive capacity. It highlights the need for 'bottom-up' participatory processes and the creation of enabling environments that allow citizens to adapt autonomously. Using Quito, Ecuador, as an example, the text illustrates the importance of bridging the gap between scientific research and policy through dedicated bodies like the Quito's Climate Change Panel.
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Document type: Research paper
Decision Making in a Changing Climate
The document argues that the ability of developing countries to integrate climate risks into their decision-making processes is a key determinant of their success in mitigating future impacts. It emphasizes that development agencies must move beyond supporting individual adaptation interventions to strengthening the institutional frameworks and policies that allow national governments to make robust, flexible, and durable decisions in the face of climate uncertainty and long-term variability.
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Document type: Briefing
Putting Vulnerable People at the Center of Communication for Adaptation: Knowledge Sharing through Participatory Games and Video Tools
The document examines how participatory communication tools, specifically video and games, can bridge the information gap for the most vulnerable people affected by climate change. It highlights that treating end-users as partners in co-learning rather than target audiences improves the adoption of adaptation strategies. Case studies demonstrate that participatory video in Malawi, Nepal, and Ethiopia helped farmers and children advocate for and implement adaptation measures. Additionally, the paper discusses how games can simplify complex systems, such as probabilistic forecasts for humanitarian action in Senegal or micro-insurance concepts for farmers in Ethiopia and Malawi, to build trust and facilitate better decision-making.
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Document type: Research paper
Information Needs for Climate Risk Management
The author argues that while information needs for climate adaptation are context-specific, responsive, proactive, and robust planning strategies overlap in their reliance on identifying vulnerabilities, hazards, and risks. The paper details the necessity of integrating historical observations, real-time data, and probabilistic forecasts to manage climate variability and long-term change, while emphasizing that 'no regrets' strategies can improve efficiency but may overlook critical trade-offs. It highlights the importance of participatory approaches and the need to plan for 'surprises'—low-probability, high-impact events—by moving beyond a sole reliance on historical records.
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Document type: Research paper
Question Seven: Thought Leaders Explore How to Meet Both Today's Development Challenges and Tomorrow's Climate Risks
The document outlines the tension between addressing current global development challenges—such as hunger and water scarcity—and preparing for future climate-related disruptions. It highlights projected temperature increases and specific risks to Asia's water and food security, posing a central policy question on how to allocate limited resources between present needs and future resilience.
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Document type: Report
World Resources 2010-2011
The report identifies five critical elements for effective climate adaptation decision-making: public engagement, decision-relevant information, institutional design, planning tools, and resources. It argues that governments must move from reactive disaster relief to proactive risk management, accounting for extremes, heightened variability, and long-term change. The document emphasizes that vulnerability—shaped by social, economic, and geographic factors—determines the impact of climate change, necessitating targeted interventions for the most disadvantaged. Through various case studies and research, it recommends integrating climate risks into existing sectoral policies and utilizing flexible, robust, and durable decision-making frameworks to manage uncertainty.
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Document type: Report
Question Two: How Can We Balance Today's Pressing Needs with Long Term Risks?
The document examines the 'balancing act' required by national decision makers to address current socio-economic challenges while preparing for future climate impacts. It highlights that waiting for certainty before acting may lead to missed opportunities for risk management, especially in vulnerable nations where long-term climate risks threaten the achievement of development goals. The text provides illustrative dilemmas, such as managing sea level rise in coastal areas and rainfall uncertainty in the Sahel, to prompt further discussion on interventions, economic incentives, and public engagement strategies for long-term planning.
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Document type: Briefing
Civil Society and the Integration of Climate Change Risks into Planning and Policy-making
The author identifies five key functions for CSOs to promote the inclusion of climate risks in policy: improving public access to climate information, advocating for vulnerable groups, promoting accountability, supporting inclusive disaster risk reduction, and participating in inter-institutional coordination. The paper highlights that in developing countries, particularly Andean nations, local-level climate data is often scarce or inaccessible, and policy tends to favor high-GDP sectors over the most vulnerable small-scale producers. It argues that CSOs can bridge the gap between research institutions and the public and use community monitoring to ensure adaptation resources are distributed equitably.
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Document type: Research paper
Minutas de la 28ª reunión del Comité Asesor Científico del IAI
The 28th SAC meeting in Miami reviewed the status of IAI's Cooperative Research Networks (CRN II) and Small Grants Programme for Human Dimensions (SGP-HD), emphasizing the need for better scientific integration across projects and increased institutional visibility. Key discussions included the development of a Latin American optical phenology network, the creation of science-society interaction proposals, and the importance of translating scientific achievements into policy briefs.
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Document type: Report
Vulnerability & Adaptation Work Program
The IISD's Vulnerability & Adaptation Work Program focuses on integrating climate risk reduction into development decision-making through a holistic, ecosystem-based approach. The program is organized around seven themes, including the development of adaptive policies, the design of a post-2012 international adaptation regime, and the study of socio-economic impacts such as forced migration and violent conflict. The work is implemented through partnerships with international organizations and Canadian entities, utilizing tools like the Sustainable Livelihoods approach and exploring innovative financing mechanisms such as micro-finance and payments for ecosystem services.
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Document type: Briefing
FACT SHEET Country/region: Selected Least Developed Countries in Asia and Africa
The document describes a scoping phase (January to November 2008) for a programme aimed at building long-term capacity in universities, research institutes, government, industry, and NGOs to manage climate change risks. The initiative focuses on developing research capacity, enhancing science-technology-policy networks, and stimulating science-policy dialogue to integrate climate risk management into national development policies. Proposed activities include forming national advisory groups, providing short courses on adaptation and vulnerability, hosting international experts, developing curricula, and establishing joint research fellowships. The programme is designed to support the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Nairobi Work Programme and National Adaptation Programmes of Action.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Report of the External Review Committee Assessment of the Inter American Institute for Global Change Research
The External Review Committee (ERC) found that the IAI produces high-quality natural science and has successfully built scientific capacity across the Americas. However, it struggles to translate science into policy action, suffers from a narrow funding base heavily dependent on the United States, and lacks a comprehensive communication strategy and long-term strategic plan.
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Document type: Report
Sharing Climate Adaptation Tools: Improving decision-making for development
The report details a workshop where 40 participants discussed a variety of climate adaptation tools, ranging from information databases to computer-based decision tools and qualitative risk management processes. It identifies a general trend of integrating climate impacts as additional stressors into existing decision-making structures and highlights a gap in tools targeting the middle ground between grassroots communities and senior officials. The document also lists specific tools such as PRECIS, CRiSTAL, and ADAPT, comparing their audiences, spatial scales, and data types.
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Document type: Report
THE CONSEQUENCES OF POST-SOCIALIST TRANSITION AND DECENTRALIZATION FOR RURAL LIVELIHOODS AND PASTURE LAND MANAGEMENT IN MONGOLIA
The document analyzes the gap between Mongolia's formal decentralization policies and the 'de facto' decentralization occurring in pasture land management. It argues that an institutional vacuum, characterized by high political decentralization but negligible fiscal and administrative autonomy, has led to rising social inequality and environmental degradation. The author highlights how the retreat of the state from regulating land use has empowered wealthy herders while marginalizing poorer ones, resulting in decreased pastoral mobility and increased grazing pressure near settlements.
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Document type: Research paper
CCORAL Caribbean Climate Online Risk and Adaptation TooL Fact Sheet
The Caribbean Climate Online Risk and Adaptation TooL (CCORAL) is a web-based system developed by the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre to help government officials and other organisations embed climate resilience into their decision-making. Part of the Caribbean Risk Management Project, the tool supports the goals of the Regional Framework for Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change and the associated Implementation Plan. It aims to promote 'no-regret' actions and flexible solutions to protect sustainable development and the Millennium Development Goals from climate change impacts. The tool's development involved consultations in Belize, Suriname, Barbados, and Jamaica, with a primary focus on anchoring the system within ministries of finance and planning.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change: A SOURCEBOOK FOR THE CARIBBEAN WATER SECTOR
The document describes the 'Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change: A Sourcebook for the Caribbean Water Sector', which supports the implementation of the Regional Framework for Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change and Implementation Plan. It is intended for water resources managers, utilities, and sector agencies to help them manage current climate risks and adapt to future changes through a four-phase decision-making cycle.
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Document type: Briefing
Resilience Interventions
The document outlines a two-exercise process for selecting climate resilience interventions. First, interventions are scored based on five resilience indicators: redundancy, flexibility and diversity, re-organisation and responsiveness, access to documentation and learning, and energy saving/GHG mitigation potential. Second, high-scoring interventions are evaluated for feasibility (technical, political, social, cost-benefit, and responsibility) and impact (timeframe and overall effect), with a strong emphasis on gender equality and the empowerment of women and girls.
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Document type: Guide
Building capacity for risk management in a changing climate
The Raising Risk Awareness (RRA) project focused on applying extreme event attribution to understand the role of climate change in specific weather events in Ethiopia, India, and Kenya, while using the Surging Seas tool to assess coastal flooding risk in Bangladesh. The project sought to bridge the gap between science, communication, and policy to improve disaster risk management in developing countries.
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Document type: Report
Investing in water security for climate resilient growth and development
The document advocates for Robust Decision Making (RDM) to manage climate uncertainty in water sector investments. It proposes a screening process to categorize investments into no/low regret, climate change risky, and climate change justified options, prioritizing those that provide benefits regardless of the climate scenario. It emphasizes addressing the 'adaptation deficit'—the backlog of investments needed to protect against existing climatic fluctuations—and suggests using sensitivity analysis and benefit-cost appraisals to refine development portfolios.
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Document type: Policy brief