Decision Making and Climate Change Uncertainty: Setting the Foundations for Informed and Consistent Strategic Decisions

This research paper, authored by Carolina Zambrano-Barragán, proposes a framework for public officials—particularly in low-income and tropical developing countries—to make strategic decisions under climate change uncertainty. The author argues that adaptation should be treated as a continuous, learning-based process rather than a set of static decisions, integrating climate resilience into national and local development plans.

• The author proposes a four-part framework for informed strategic decision-making under climate uncertainty: establishing a flexible socio-institutional framework, managing key information and knowledge, maintaining a portfolio of options, and implementing periodic monitoring and evaluation.
• Climate change adaptation is deeply linked to development; policies that reduce poverty and inequality simultaneously increase the adaptive capacity and resilience of communities.
• To institutionalize climate change management, governments should include adaptation and mitigation in annual operative plans and budget allocations, appoint official coordinating institutions, and create inter-sectoral mechanisms like national climate change committees involving finance and planning ministries.
• Governments should create enabling environments for autonomous adaptation by providing citizens with information, incentives, and resources, and by guaranteeing rights to land and resources.
• There is a critical need for climate research specifically tailored to tropical and mountainous countries, as existing research from lower latitudes often does not apply due to differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.
• Decision-makers should maintain a diverse portfolio of adaptation strategies, including 'no-regret' win-win strategies (such as poverty reduction), robust measures that perform across various scenarios, and a combination of traditional coping mechanisms and technological innovations.
• To manage limited resources and avoid premature commitment to dramatic strategies, governments can 'reserve the right to play' by making incremental investments or implementing initiatives progressively in public lands and flexible economic sectors.

APA

Zambrano-Barragán, C. (2010). Decision Making and Climate Change Uncertainty: Setting the Foundations for Informed and Consistent Strategic Decisions. World Resources Institute. https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2023-02/wrr-2010-11-question-2-response-3.pdf

Chicago

Zambrano-Barragán, Carolina. Decision Making and Climate Change Uncertainty: Setting the Foundations for Informed and Consistent Strategic Decisions. World Resources Institute, 2010. https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2023-02/wrr-2010-11-question-2-response-3.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Zambrano-Barragán |first1=Carolina |title=Decision Making and Climate Change Uncertainty: Setting the Foundations for Informed and Consistent Strategic Decisions |publisher=World Resources Institute |date=2010 |url=https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2023-02/wrr-2010-11-question-2-response-3.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{zambranobarragn2010decision, author = {Zambrano-Barragán, Carolina}, title = {{Decision Making and Climate Change Uncertainty: Setting the Foundations for Informed and Consistent Strategic Decisions}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, year = {2010}, url = {https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2023-02/wrr-2010-11-question-2-response-3.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }