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COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE: A RISK ASSESSMENT FOR DAKAR
The report assesses coastal risks in the Dakar region, specifically within the departments of Dakar, Pikine, and Guédiawaye. It identifies high-risk areas for flooding, such as the canal of Ngor and the Port of Dakar, and high-risk areas for erosion, including the beach of Hanika. Projections indicate that without adaptation, the population at risk of coastal flooding will increase by 20-30% by 2050 and over 80% by 2100. Economic damages to buildings are expected to rise by 30% by 2050 and up to 180% by 2100 under the worst-case scenario.
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Document type: Policy brief
THE GAS INDEX
The Gas Index finds that methane leakage across the U.S. natural gas supply chain is significantly more extensive than EPA estimates, particularly within city distribution systems and buildings. The report argues that replacing gas heating with electric heat pumps would reduce emissions in every city evaluated, with the greatest benefits occurring where electricity grids are decarbonized.
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Document type: Report
INFORME FINAL EVALUACIÓN REGIONAL DEL AGUA - ERA
The report details a comprehensive water assessment for the CORPOCHIVOR region in Colombia, employing the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system to analyze the Garagoa, Lengupá, Guavio, and Upía sub-basins. It establishes a baseline of water availability and demand, identifies critical micro-basins such as those in Úmbita and Ciénaga, and projects impacts under climate change scenarios to 2040. Key findings highlight a general lack of water retention capacity, deteriorating water quality in main river channels, and a discrepancy between official water concessions and potential actual demand in agricultural areas.
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Document type: Report
Demand Under the Ban -- China Ivory Consumption Research 2019
The report finds that while the 2017 ivory ban significantly reduced purchase rates compared to pre-ban levels, demand remains persistent among 'Diehard Buyers' and regular overseas travelers. By 2019, self-reported ivory purchase in the past 12 months rose to 17% from 14% in 2018. The study identifies three consumer segments: Rejectors, Ban Influenced Citizens, and Diehard Buyers, noting that the latter are increasingly likely to purchase ivory in the future. Overseas travel to Thailand, Hong Kong SAR, and Cambodia is a primary channel for ivory acquisition. Awareness of the ban is high when prompted, and conservation campaigns are generally viewed positively, though they are less effective at persuading the most persistent buyers.
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Document type: Report
Solving Plastic pollution through accountability
The report identifies a systemic failure in the plastic life cycle where the cost of pollution is not borne by producers or converters, leading to a 'tragedy of the commons'. It projects that under a 'business as usual' scenario, plastic pollution will double by 2030, with ocean plastic potentially reaching 300 million metric tons. The document highlights that 37% of plastic waste is currently mismanaged, and carbon emissions from plastic incineration could triple by 2030. To counter this, WWF proposes a 'no plastic in nature' scenario that includes phasing out single-use plastics, achieving 100% waste collection, and establishing a multilateral agreement to hold all stakeholders accountable across the value chain.
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Document type: Report
Turning Soils Into Sponges
The Union of Concerned Scientists argues that shifting from conventional farming to practices that create 'spongelike' soils—such as using cover crops and perennial crops—can significantly reduce flood runoff and increase water availability during droughts. A meta-analysis of 126 experiments showed that 70 percent of cases using these practices saw increased water infiltration. Modeling for Iowa suggests that converting one-third of cropped acres (the least profitable and most erodible) to continuous cover could have reduced runoff by 20 percent during the 2011 Missouri River floods and increased crop water availability by up to 16 percent during the 1988 and 2012 droughts. The report calls for federal policy changes to the USDA and crop insurance programs to incentivize these soil management practices.
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Document type: Executive summary
When Rising Seas Hit Home
The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) defines 'chronic inundation' as tidal flooding affecting 10% or more of a community's usable land at least 26 times per year. Under a moderate (intermediate) scenario, nearly 170 communities will reach this threshold by 2035, increasing to over 270 by 2060 and nearly 490 by 2100. A high scenario projects up to 670 communities affected by 2100, including over 50 populous cities such as New York City (four boroughs), Boston, and Oakland. The report highlights that socioeconomically vulnerable neighborhoods are disproportionately affected and argues that aggressive emissions reductions aligned with the Paris Agreement could spare hundreds of communities from this fate. Adaptation options include defending (seawalls, levees), accommodating (elevating homes, pumps), and managed retreat.
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Document type: Report
ASSESSING CLIMATE RISK IN MYANMAR
The report finds that Myanmar is experiencing significant warming, with inland areas warming faster than coastal ones. Projections for the mid-21st century indicate temperature increases of 1.3°C to 2.7°C and sea level rise of 20 to 41 centimeters. While wet season precipitation is expected to increase, potentially exacerbating flooding, changes in the hot and cool seasons remain uncertain. The report emphasizes the high vulnerability of the Ayeyarwaddy Delta and Central Dry Zone, advocating for ecosystem-based adaptation and the integration of climate risk data into infrastructure and agricultural planning.
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Document type: Report
Jamaica: Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Cocoa and Tomato
The document examines how changing temperature and rainfall patterns will affect crop suitability in Jamaica by 2050, highlighting significant risks for tomato production and drought sensitivity for cocoa, while suggesting root crops as diversification alternatives.
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Document type: Policy brief
Final Report Modeled Impacts of Oil and Gas on air quality and human health
The report uses photochemical modeling to compare a 2025 'Baseline' scenario with a 'Zero-Oil&Gas' scenario to quantify the contribution of the oil and gas sector to ozone concentrations and associated health burdens across the continental United States.
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Document type: Report
Predicting the Decline of Ethnic Civil War: Was Gurr Right and For the Right Reasons?
The study finds that ethnic civil wars have indeed declined since the mid-1990s, supporting Ted Robert Gurr's projections. The authors demonstrate that this pacifying trend is associated with increased government accommodation, specifically through the granting of group rights, power-sharing, and democratization, which reduce the probability of conflict onset. Additionally, regional autonomy and peacekeeping operations are found to significantly increase the likelihood of conflict termination. Out-of-sample predictions show that a theory-driven model based on accommodative politics far outperforms a simple time-trend model in predicting the actual decline of ethnic conflict from 2000 to 2013.
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Document type: Research paper
Front Lines: Rising Seas - Naval Air Station Oceana Dam Neck Annex
The Naval Air Station Oceana Dam Neck Annex faces significant risks from sea level rise, with projections indicating that up to 75% of the installation could be underwater during daily high tides by 2100 under a high-emission scenario. The analysis warns that by the end of the century, a Category 1 storm would expose at least 95% of the station to storm surge flooding, and a Category 4 storm could result in nearly 60% of the installation flooding to depths of 20 feet or more. The document argues that there is a growing gap between current military preparedness and these threats, calling for increased funding for high-resolution modeling, tide gauge networks, and detailed mapping to implement adaptive measures.
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Document type: Case study
USCG Sandy Hook
USCG Station Sandy Hook, a critical life-saving and security installation in New Jersey, faces significant risks from rising seas. Projections indicate that by 2100, sea levels in the area could rise between four and 6.4 feet. Under a 'highest' scenario, nearly three-quarters of the station's land area could flood with daily high tides by 2100. Additionally, the area exposed to five feet or more of seawater during Category 1 storm surges is projected to increase from 30% today to roughly 80% by 2100 under an intermediate scenario. The document argues that there is a large gap in military preparedness and calls for increased funding for high-resolution modeling, tide gauge networks, and detailed mapping to implement adaptive measures.
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Document type: Case study
Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda
The report finds that malaria cases in Tororo and Kabale are projected to more than double by 2050, driven primarily by population growth and secondarily by rising temperatures. Economic costs are expected to at least double, with Tororo's annual costs potentially rising to between US$20.1 million and US$560.5 million, and Kabale's to between US$1.55 million and US$41.7 million. While the evidence base for climate-malaria linkages in Uganda is limited, the study suggests that temperature increases will be particularly significant in the highland region of Kabale. Recommended adaptation strategies include strengthening disease surveillance, improving drainage in infrastructure projects, and continuing the distribution of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), both of which are identified as cost-effective interventions.
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Document type: Case study
Irrigation demand and supply given projections of climate and land use change in Yolo County, California
The study uses the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system to model irrigation demand and supply in California's Cache Creek watershed. It finds that climate change will significantly increase irrigation demand, which cannot be fully met by reservoir releases due to legal limits, necessitating increased groundwater extraction. While changing cropping patterns alone are insufficient to offset climate-driven demand, combining diversified, water-efficient cropping with technology improvements can reduce demand to 12% below historical means and lower groundwater pumping.
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Document type: Research paper
Global water availability and requirements for future food production
The study uses the LPJmL model to evaluate green and blue water availability against the requirements for a balanced diet (3,000 kcal per person per day). It finds that while rising CO2 concentrations may improve crop water productivity, the combined effects of climate and population change are likely to diminish per capita water availability and increase water scarcity in many countries, potentially reducing their capacity to produce sufficient food for their populations.
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Document type: Research paper
Water management, Chinook salmon, California, climate change
Using WEAP and SALMOD models, the study finds that climate change leads to lower summer base flows and higher water temperatures in Butte Creek, increasing adult thermal mortality for spring-run Chinook salmon. While ceasing water diversion for power production improves survival time, the authors conclude that simple operational changes are unlikely to prevent the long-term extinction of the species in this location.
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Document type: Research paper
Climate Change and Your Health
The report analyzes the relationship between rising temperatures and ground-level ozone formation, projecting that climate change will increase ozone concentrations and exacerbate respiratory health issues. Using the EPA's BenMAP model, the authors estimate that by 2020, the 'climate penalty' could result in 2.8 million additional acute respiratory symptoms and $5.4 billion in health costs. By 2050, these impacts are projected to rise significantly, with 11.8 million additional respiratory symptom occurrences. The report emphasizes that while precursor emissions are declining, warming temperatures may offset these gains, particularly in California, the Midwest, and the Mid-Atlantic.
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Document type: Report
The Last Drop: Climate Change and the Southwest Water Crisis
The U.S. Southwest is currently relying on unsustainable groundwater extraction to meet water demands. Climate change is projected to exacerbate this crisis by increasing agricultural water needs and shifting snowmelt timing, leading to significant water shortfalls. The report finds that without adaptation, the region faces a cumulative water shortfall of up to 2,253 million acre feet over the next century under a severe climate scenario (A2). While desalination and imports are deemed non-viable due to cost and availability, planned reductions in urban and agricultural water use—particularly the elimination of low-value crops—could bring water use to sustainable levels. The economic cost of inaction is estimated between $2.3 trillion and $5 trillion over the next century.
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Document type: Report
Coastal Capital: Dominican Republic
The report provides economic valuations of coastal ecosystem services in the Dominican Republic, highlighting the financial risks of beach erosion to the hotel industry and the decline of reef-dependent fisheries. It argues that protecting coral reefs and mangroves is more cost-effective than temporary engineering solutions like beach nourishment. Case studies demonstrate the potential for dive tourism in La Caleta National Marine Park to provide alternative livelihoods for fishermen and the significant domestic spending generated by the Jaragua-Bahoruco-Enriquillo Biosphere Reserve.
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Document type: Research paper