ASSESSING CLIMATE RISK IN MYANMAR

The report finds that Myanmar is experiencing significant warming, with inland areas warming faster than coastal ones. Projections for the mid-21st century indicate temperature increases of 1.3°C to 2.7°C and sea level rise of 20 to 41 centimeters. While wet season precipitation is expected to increase, potentially exacerbating flooding, changes in the hot and cool seasons remain uncertain. The report emphasizes the high vulnerability of the Ayeyarwaddy Delta and Central Dry Zone, advocating for ecosystem-based adaptation and the integration of climate risk data into infrastructure and agricultural planning.

• Between 1981 and 2010, Myanmar's national average daily temperatures increased by approximately 0.25°C per decade, while daily maximum temperatures rose faster at 0.4°C per decade.
• Observed warming from 1981 to 2010 was more pronounced in inland regions (0.35°C per decade for average temperature) compared to coastal regions (0.14°C per decade).
• By the mid-21st century (2041-2070), average temperatures across Myanmar are projected to rise by 1.3°C to 2.7°C above historical levels, with the most dramatic warming expected in the Eastern and Northern Hilly Regions.
• The frequency of extreme heat days is projected to increase significantly; while only about one extreme heat day per month was observed between 1981-2010, this could rise to between four and 17 days per month by mid-century.
• Precipitation projections indicate a likely increase in rainfall during the wet season (June to October) by mid-century, though trends for the hot and cool seasons remain uncertain.
• Sea levels along the Myanmar coastline are projected to rise by 20 to 41 centimeters by the 2050s, with potential increases of 37 to 83 centimeters by the 2080s.
• The Ayeyarwaddy Delta is identified as particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges; a 0.5 meter rise in sea levels could result in the coastline retreating by approximately 10 kilometers in the lowest lying areas.
• Analysis of historical extreme events, such as the May 2010 heat wave, shows that while temperature extremes are clearly detectable in weather data, reported droughts and floods do not always correspond to extreme precipitation shortages or surpluses in the records.
• Tropical cyclones reaching Myanmar have increased in number since 1990, with a rise in pre-monsoon events and a trend toward more hurricane-force storms (wind speeds of 119km/hour or greater) since 1980.
• The Myanmar Climate Change Alliance (MCCA) is applying this risk information to local adaptation planning in Labutta and Pakkoku townships, using vulnerability assessments to prioritize ecosystem health, economic resilience, and resilient infrastructure.

APA

Horton, R., De Mel, M., Peters, D., Lesk, C., Bartlett, R., Helsingen, H., Bader, D., Capizzi, P., Martin, S., & Rosenzweig, C. (2017). ASSESSING CLIMATE RISK IN MYANMAR. WWF International. https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/419/4d2f7581vl_Final_Technical_Report___Assessing_Climate_Risk_in_Myanmar.pdf

Chicago

Horton, Radley, Manishka De Mel, Danielle Peters, Corey Lesk, Ryan Bartlett, Hanna Helsingen, Daniel Bader, et al. ASSESSING CLIMATE RISK IN MYANMAR. WWF International, 2017. https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/419/4d2f7581vl_Final_Technical_Report___Assessing_Climate_Risk_in_Myanmar.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{horton2017assessing, author = {Horton, Radley and De Mel, Manishka and Peters, Danielle and Lesk, Corey and Bartlett, Ryan and Helsingen, Hanna and Bader, Daniel and Capizzi, Pasquale and Martin, Shaun and Rosenzweig, Cynthia}, title = {{ASSESSING CLIMATE RISK IN MYANMAR}}, institution = {WWF International}, year = {2017}, month = mar, url = {https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/419/4d2f7581vl_Final_Technical_Report___Assessing_Climate_Risk_in_Myanmar.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }