Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda

The report finds that malaria cases in Tororo and Kabale are projected to more than double by 2050, driven primarily by population growth and secondarily by rising temperatures. Economic costs are expected to at least double, with Tororo's annual costs potentially rising to between US$20.1 million and US$560.5 million, and Kabale's to between US$1.55 million and US$41.7 million. While the evidence base for climate-malaria linkages in Uganda is limited, the study suggests that temperature increases will be particularly significant in the highland region of Kabale. Recommended adaptation strategies include strengthening disease surveillance, improving drainage in infrastructure projects, and continuing the distribution of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), both of which are identified as cost-effective interventions.

• Malaria cases in the study districts are projected to more than double by 2050, with population growth identified as the primary driver over climate change. In Tororo, annual cases are expected to rise from 11,628 to between 26,938 and 29,527; in Kabale, cases are projected to increase from 3,366 to between 7,765 and 8,859.
• The economic burden of malaria is expected to at least double by 2050. In Tororo, annual costs may increase from a current range of US$8.7 million to US$221 million to a range of US$20.1 million to US$560.5 million. In Kabale, costs are projected to rise from US$0.7 million to US$15.8 million to between US$1.55 million and US$41.7 million.
• Climate change is projected to increase temperatures in both districts by 2095, with a more significant increase expected in Kabale (3.0°C to 4.5°C) than in Tororo (1.5°C to 3.5°C). Average annual rainfall is not predicted to increase, though daily patterns may shift toward more days with light rain and fewer days with heavy rain.
• Indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) are considered cost-effective, with IRS benefits in terms of mortality alone estimated at US$232 to US$6,026 for every US$1 spent. However, in low-prevalence areas like Kabale, these measures may not be cost-beneficial under all current conditions, though climate change may increase their viability.
• The study identifies several barriers to adaptation, including high poverty levels, lack of awareness regarding the climate-health link, and behavioral factors such as the refusal of some men to use bednets or the selling of nets for other purposes.
• To avoid maladaptation and maximize health co-benefits, the report recommends cross-sectoral collaboration, specifically integrating appropriate drainage systems into new road construction to eliminate mosquito breeding grounds.

APA

Taylor, T., Markandya, A., Zinszer, K., Wanzira, H., Mwebaze, T., & Rautenbach, H. (2015). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-economics_HEALTH_case-study2.pdf

Chicago

Taylor, Tim, Anil Markandya, Kate Zinszer, Humphrey Wanzira, Tom Mwebaze, and Hannes Rautenbach. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2015. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-economics_HEALTH_case-study2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Taylor |first1=Tim |last2=Markandya |first2=Anil |last3=Zinszer |first3=Kate |last4=Wanzira |first4=Humphrey |last5=Mwebaze |first5=Tom |last6=Rautenbach |first6=Hannes |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=October 2015 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-economics_HEALTH_case-study2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{taylor2015economic, author = {Taylor, Tim and Markandya, Anil and Zinszer, Kate and Wanzira, Humphrey and Mwebaze, Tom and Rautenbach, Hannes}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2015}, month = oct, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-economics_HEALTH_case-study2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }