Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda

This case study assesses the economic impacts of climate change on malaria prevalence in the Tororo and Kabale districts of Uganda. It finds that while climate change (specifically rising temperatures) is expected to increase malaria incidence, population growth is the primary driver of future case increases. The report estimates that the economic burden of malaria in these districts could more than double by 2050, primarily due to mortality costs. It recommends a multi-sectoral approach to adaptation, including improved disease surveillance, early warning systems, and the continued use of Long Lasting Insecticide Nets (LLINs) and Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS).

• Malaria is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Uganda, with the disease being endemic in 95% of the country.
• Climate change is projected to increase temperatures in Tororo by 1.5°C to 3.5°C and in Kabale by 3.0°C to 4.5°C by 2095, depending on the RCP scenario. While average annual rainfall is not predicted to increase, there is an indication of more days with small amounts of rain and fewer days with heavy rain.
• The number of malaria cases is expected to more than double in both study districts by 2050. In Tororo, annual cases are projected to rise from 11,628 to between 26,938 and 29,527. In Kabale, cases are projected to rise from 3,366 to between 7,765 and 8,859.
• Population growth is the dominant driver of increased malaria cases compared to climate change. In Tororo, the climate effect by 2050 is estimated to cause between 383 and 3,473 additional cases, whereas the population effect is significantly larger.
• The economic cost of malaria is expected to more than double by 2050. In Tororo, annual costs may rise from a range of US$8.7 - 221 million to US$20.1 - 560.5 million. In Kabale, costs are expected to increase from US$0.7 - 15.8 million to US$1.55 - 41.7 million.
• Mortality dominates the economic costs of malaria. The study used a Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) range of US$81,256 to US$2.1 million, adjusted for child mortality, to estimate these costs.
• Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) and Long Lasting Insecticide Nets (LLINs) are considered cost-effective interventions. For every US$1 spent on IRS, the benefits in terms of mortality alone are estimated between US$232 and US$6,026.
• Adaptation strategies must be tailored to local prevalence; in low-prevalence areas like Kabale, a strategy based on surveillance and rapid treatment may be more cost-effective than blanket IRS or LLIN implementation.
• Significant barriers to adaptation include poverty, lack of awareness regarding the climate-health link, behavioral factors (such as not using bednets when hot), and institutional weaknesses including weak leadership and lack of resources.
• The report recommends several immediate and long-term actions: conducting sub-national vulnerability assessments, improving weather data and forecasting, developing early warning systems, and strengthening Village Health Teams.

APA

Taylor, T., Markandya, A., Zinszer, K., Wanzira, H., Mwebaze, T., & Rautenbach, H. (2015). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-economics_HEALTH_case-study2.pdf

Chicago

Taylor, Tim, Anil Markandya, Kate Zinszer, Humphrey Wanzira, Tom Mwebaze, and Hannes Rautenbach. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2015. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-economics_HEALTH_case-study2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Taylor |first1=Tim |last2=Markandya |first2=Anil |last3=Zinszer |first3=Kate |last4=Wanzira |first4=Humphrey |last5=Mwebaze |first5=Tom |last6=Rautenbach |first6=Hannes |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=October 2015 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-economics_HEALTH_case-study2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{taylor2015economic, author = {Taylor, Tim and Markandya, Anil and Zinszer, Kate and Wanzira, Humphrey and Mwebaze, Tom and Rautenbach, Hannes}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2015}, month = oct, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-economics_HEALTH_case-study2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }