Search Climate Insights Directory

The report analyzes the IRA's transportation incentives, including tax credits for new and used EVs, commercial vehicle credits, and charging infrastructure support. Through three modeling scenarios (Low, Moderate, High), it estimates that the IRA can increase passenger EV sales shares to 34% (Moderate) or 39% (High) by 2030 compared to a 29% business-as-usual baseline. It highlights that while commercial and light-duty truck adoption will see significant boosts, passenger EV adoption may be limited in the near term by stringent eligibility requirements regarding North American assembly and sourcing from 'entities of concern'. The authors argue that the IRA is a foundational step but insufficient alone to meet 1.5°C climate goals, recommending complementary EPA tailpipe standards, state-level clean vehicle mandates, and strategic electric grid investments.

The report finds that strong methane standards in the U.S. oil and gas sector would create significant employment without negatively impacting drilling activity. The CATF 65% plan is projected to create nearly 220,000 total jobs (including 64,000 direct jobs), while the EPA proposal would create 92,000 total jobs (including 27,000 direct jobs). These jobs span manufacturing, installation, and ongoing operations and maintenance, with a significant portion being non-offshorable and potentially unionized.

The Clean Air Task Force advocates for increasing the 45Q tax credit to $85 per tonne for carbon capture and $180 per tonne for DAC, while indexing these values to inflation from 2020 to prevent economic erosion. The brief suggests that these enhancements, combined with the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, could lead to a 13-fold increase in carbon capture projects by 2031, sequestering between 72 and 125 million tonnes of CO2 annually.

The report highlights a 'double threat' in Northern Canada: inadequate existing infrastructure and a climate warming three times faster than the global average. Permafrost thaw is causing significant structural damage to runways, roads, and residential buildings, which threatens essential services like healthcare and food security. The authors argue that while incremental adaptation (e.g., thermosiphons) can delay costs, 'transformational adaptation'—repensuring how services are delivered and where infrastructure is located—is necessary to address systemic deficits rooted in colonial history. The report recommends federal funding restructuring, improved regional climate risk data, and updated building codes to ensure long-term resilience.

The report identifies four critical barriers to Canada's electricity transition: misaligned federal climate policies, lack of provincial institutional coordination, potential electricity rate increases, and insufficient interregional connectivity. To overcome these, it advocates for a combination of federal carbon pricing reform, the implementation of national performance standards, and the use of negotiated agreements where federal funding is tied to provincial governance reforms. Key recommendations include clarifying the mandates of provincial regulators to include climate goals, developing comprehensive energy plans, and utilizing the tax base rather than just electricity rates to fund infrastructure and support low-income households.

The Canadian Climate Institute concludes that the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan is credible and puts Canada on a path toward its 2050 net-zero goal, though a slight gap remains for the 2030 target. Independent modeling suggests that while the plan is transparent and ambitious, its success depends on the rapid implementation of five priority policies—carbon pricing, an oil and gas emissions cap, a clean electricity standard, a clean fuels standard, and land-use emission reductions—which together would account for 62% of the necessary reductions. The report emphasizes that the primary risk is no longer the plan's design but the speed and effectiveness of its execution.

The Biden administration's new emissions standards for model years 2023–2026 improve upon the previous SAFE rule, with fleet average emissions reductions rising up to 10 percent by model year 2026. While these rules are projected to reduce global warming emissions by 440 million metric tons and drive electric vehicle (EV) deployment to 14 percent by 2026, the Union of Concerned Scientists argues they are insufficient. The document highlights critical loopholes, such as the 'SUV Loophole' and 'off-cycle' credits, and asserts that all new vehicle sales must be electric by 2035 to prevent the worst impacts of global warming.

The document argues that Minnesota can meet its electricity needs with 100 percent renewable energy by 2035, leading to significant public health savings, job growth, and emissions reductions, provided the transition is managed equitably.

The report finds that USCA states can meet 100% of their electricity consumption with renewables by 2035, even with increased demand from electrification. This transition would significantly reduce air pollution, prevent 6,000 to 13,000 premature deaths, and lower average household energy burdens from 3.7% to 3.0% by 2040. While the transition creates substantial net jobs in renewable installation, the authors argue that proactive equity policies are necessary to ensure benefits reach marginalized communities and fossil fuel workers.

Research using the Oregon Energy Policy Simulator indicates that Oregon's current climate policies will reduce emissions by 25% below 1990 levels by 2035 and nearly 30% by 2050. However, implementing stronger policies across the economy, particularly in transportation and buildings, could achieve a 50% reduction by 2035 and 74% by 2050, while significantly increasing GDP and job creation.

The Canadian Climate Institute outlines a three-pillar framework for Canada's emission reduction plans: establishing net-zero aligned emission trajectories, implementing credible policies with concrete measures, and creating responsive governance processes for continuous improvement. The report emphasizes the need for transparent modeling, sector-specific trajectories, and independent annual monitoring to fill gaps in the current legislative framework. It includes modeling for various sectors, noting that the oil and gas sector exhibits the highest variability and significantly influences the emissions budget for other sectors.

The report analyzes the transition of California's medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (M/HDV) fleet to zero-emission vehicles under various policy scenarios. It finds that accelerating the 100 percent ZEV sales mandate from 2040 to 2036 would increase cumulative net societal benefits by $9.9 billion by 2050, primarily through reduced greenhouse gas emissions and improved public health. While ZEVs currently have higher purchase costs, the analysis projects they will reach lifetime cost parity with combustion vehicles by 2030, with average vehicles purchased in 2040 saving owners over $47,000. However, the report notes that out-of-state combination trucks will remain a significant emission source, accounting for 75 percent of M/HDV GHG emissions by 2050 under the most aggressive scenario.

The analysis finds that adopting a Federal Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) and NOx Omnibus policy would significantly reduce greenhouse gas and NOx emissions, create over 63,000 net jobs by 2035, and generate $487.7 billion in cumulative net societal benefits by 2050. It highlights that the EPA's baseline underestimates ZEV adoption, thereby overestimating the relative impact of NOx standards. The report projects that average Class 4-8 ZEVs will reach total cost of ownership parity with internal combustion engines by model year 2030, with significant lifetime savings by 2040.

The report analyzes the transition of Illinois's medium- and heavy-duty (M/HD) vehicle fleet to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) under three scenarios: the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) Rule, the ACT plus NOx Omnibus Rule, and a highly ambitious '100 x 40 ZEV + Clean Grid' scenario. The most aggressive scenario is projected to yield cumulative net societal benefits of over $44.6 billion by 2050, including 878 avoided premature deaths and 995 fewer hospital visits. While ZEVs currently have higher purchase costs, the analysis projects that the average ZEV will reach lifetime cost parity with combustion vehicles by 2030. The transition is expected to have positive macroeconomic effects, including net national job gains and increased GDP by 2035, although these gains depend on the development of U.S.-based component manufacturing. Significant infrastructure investment is required, with the 100 x 40 ZEV scenario requiring an average of $130 million annually for depot charging and $169 million for public charging networks through 2050.

The report analyzes the transition of New Mexico's medium- and heavy-duty (M/HD) vehicle fleet to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) under three policy scenarios: the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) Rule, the ACT Rule plus NOx Omnibus Rule, and a highly ambitious '100 x 40 ZEV + Clean Grid' scenario. The analysis finds that while ZEVs currently have higher purchase costs, they are projected to reach lifetime cost parity with combustion vehicles by 2030. The most aggressive scenario results in cumulative net societal benefits of over $6.7 billion by 2050, including 65 avoided premature deaths and 59 fewer hospital visits. Macroeconomic modeling suggests the transition would lead to national net job gains and increased GDP by 2035, with new jobs in electrical component manufacturing and infrastructure construction offering wages nearly twice as high as the jobs they replace. However, the report notes that increased electricity demand could potentially raise residential and commercial electricity rates in New Mexico by up to 2% by 2050 without effective utility planning.

The analysis examines the transition of Nevada's medium- and heavy-duty (M/HD) vehicle fleet to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) under three scenarios: the California Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) Rule, the ACT Rule plus the NOx Omnibus Rule, and a highly ambitious '100 x 40 ZEV + Clean Grid' scenario. The most aggressive scenario projects cumulative net societal benefits of over $9.6 billion by 2050, including 98 avoided premature deaths and 71 fewer hospital visits. While ZEVs currently have higher purchase costs, the report finds that average ZEVs in Nevada are projected to reach lifetime cost parity with combustion vehicles by 2030, eventually providing significant fuel and maintenance savings. The transition would reduce petroleum dependence, increase electricity demand, and potentially lower residential and commercial electricity rates due to increased utility net revenue. Macroeconomic modeling suggests national net job gains through 2035, with new jobs in electrical component manufacturing and infrastructure construction offering wages nearly twice as high as the jobs they replace.

The policy brief advocates for a specific amendment to the Build Back Better Act regarding tax normalization rules for clean energy infrastructure. While praising the bill's inclusion of direct pay and the option for solar developers to use the production tax credit (PTC), RMI argues that the investment tax credit (ITC) for storage and transmission is undermined by normalization requirements. These rules force utilities to retain some financial benefits for shareholders rather than passing them to customers. RMI estimates that allowing an opt-out from normalization would save approximately $150 million for every billion dollars spent on such infrastructure, potentially reducing carbon emissions by 50 million metric tons annually and saving customers over $1 billion per year by 2030.

The policy brief argues that the Build Back Better Act's EV incentives would accelerate market transformation, significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions and pollution-related deaths while boosting U.S. manufacturing. It details specific tax credits for passenger and heavy-duty vehicles, emphasizes the importance of income caps to reach moderate earners, and explains how BBB charging infrastructure complements the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act by focusing on community-level access.

The report analyzes 11 recent studies, concluding that a transition to 80% clean electricity by 2030 in the U.S. is feasible, affordable, and critical for meeting national climate goals. Key findings indicate that such a transition would be driven primarily by wind, solar, and battery storage, resulting in significant job growth, reduced premature deaths, and substantial avoided health and climate damages, with minimal impact on consumer electricity bills.

This policy brief by RMI argues that federal incentives are necessary to help electric cooperatives (co-ops) retire aging coal plants and transition to renewable energy, which would drive significant economic development in rural US communities.