California Clean Trucks Program

The report analyzes the transition of California's medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (M/HDV) fleet to zero-emission vehicles under various policy scenarios. It finds that accelerating the 100 percent ZEV sales mandate from 2040 to 2036 would increase cumulative net societal benefits by $9.9 billion by 2050, primarily through reduced greenhouse gas emissions and improved public health. While ZEVs currently have higher purchase costs, the analysis projects they will reach lifetime cost parity with combustion vehicles by 2030, with average vehicles purchased in 2040 saving owners over $47,000. However, the report notes that out-of-state combination trucks will remain a significant emission source, accounting for 75 percent of M/HDV GHG emissions by 2050 under the most aggressive scenario.

• Accelerating the 100 percent ZEV sales mandate from 2040 to 2036 increases the number of Class 2b to 8 ZEVs by more than 130,000 by 2050, resulting in an additional $9.9 billion in cumulative net societal benefits between 2022 and 2050.
• The '100% Sales by 2036' scenario is projected to reduce cumulative emissions from 2020 to 2050 by 24 million MT of CO2e, over 30,000 MT of NOx, and 1,040 MT of PM2.5 compared to the 2040 mandate scenario.
• Despite aggressive mandates, California will not meet the goal of 100 percent zero-emitting M/HDVs by 2045; under the 2036 sales mandate, over 750,000 non-ZEV M/HDVs (roughly one-third of the fleet) will still be on the road in 2045.
• Out-of-state (OOS) combination trucks present a major challenge for emission reductions, as they account for nearly 50 percent of all combination truck miles in California and are projected to cause 75 percent of all M/HDV GHG emissions by 2050 under the '100% Sales by 2036' scenario.
• M/HD ZEVs are expected to reach lifetime cost parity with combustion vehicles by 2030. By 2040, the average ZEV purchased is projected to provide over $47,000 in discounted lifetime net savings.
• The transition to M/HD EV charging could lower electricity rates for California residents and commercial customers by up to 2.5% by 2050 under the '100% Sales by 2036' scenario, potentially saving households $46 and commercial customers $426 annually.
• The '100% Sales by 2036' scenario is projected to result in 2,647 avoided premature deaths and 2,067 avoided hospital visits by 2050, with a monetized public health benefit value of $30.1 billion.

APA

Robo, E., Seamonds, D., Freeman, M., Saha, A., & MacNair, D. (2022). California Clean Trucks Program. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2022-08/ca-clean-trucks-report.pdf

Chicago

Robo, Ellen, David Seamonds, Miranda Freeman, Amlan Saha, and Doug MacNair. California Clean Trucks Program. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2022. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2022-08/ca-clean-trucks-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Robo |first1=Ellen |last2=Seamonds |first2=David |last3=Freeman |first3=Miranda |last4=Saha |first4=Amlan |last5=MacNair |first5=Doug |title=California Clean Trucks Program |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=2022 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2022-08/ca-clean-trucks-report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{robo2022california, author = {Robo, Ellen and Seamonds, David and Freeman, Miranda and Saha, Amlan and MacNair, Doug}, title = {{California Clean Trucks Program}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2022}, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2022-08/ca-clean-trucks-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }