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Coal-to-gas switching threatens energy, security, and global climate goals
The document analyzes the global pipeline of coal-to-gas conversions, identifying approximately 89.6 GW of such projects in development. It argues that these projects risk locking in fossil fuel use for decades and creating stranded assets, especially as the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for renewables with storage becomes more competitive than gas. The report highlights East Asia, Europe, and North America as the regions with the most significant coal-to-gas activity and warns that methane leakage from gas infrastructure can make gas-fired power more damaging to the climate than coal if leakage exceeds 3%.
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Document type: Briefing
TOURISM SECTOR MASTER PLAN RESEARCH REPORT
The report assesses the South African tourism sector's employment landscape, highlighting the severe job losses caused by Covid-19 and the systemic barriers to inclusive growth. It argues that the sector is dominated by small, often informal businesses and white-owned enterprises, leading to precarious working conditions for the predominantly Black, female, and youth workforce. The document critiques the government's recovery efforts, such as the Tourism Relief Fund and the Tourism Sector Recovery Plan, for lacking a 'decent work' framing and insufficient fiscal support. It recommends a 'whole of government' approach, including visa reform, domestic market stimulation, and a just transition to a green economy, to ensure a more sustainable and inclusive recovery.
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Document type: Report
Consideration of funding proposals – Addendum I Funding proposal package for FP191
The project, 'Enhancing Adaptation and Community Resilience by Improving Water Security in Vanuatu,' is a climate adaptation investment requesting USD 23.3 million in GCF grants. It targets 85,650 direct beneficiaries across 750 communities. The initiative focuses on three outcomes: empowering communities to plan climate-resilient water resources through updated Drinking Water Safety and Security Planning (DWSSP), constructing and upgrading climate-resilient rural water infrastructure via the Capital Assistance Programme (CAP), and strengthening provincial and national institutions. The project addresses risks such as increased temperatures, extreme precipitation, and sea-level rise, which threaten water quality and availability. It specifically emphasizes gender equality by mandating 40% female representation in Rural Water Committees (RWCs) and designing infrastructure to meet the specific needs of women, children, and the elderly.
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Document type: Report
Carbon capture and storage: where are we at?
The document describes CCS as an integrated infrastructure for capturing, transporting, and storing CO2. It notes a history of failure, with only 10% of projects between 1995 and 2018 being completed, but highlights a recent surge in investment and project pipelines, particularly in North America and Europe. The author argues that CCS is currently only truly essential for the cement sector, as renewables outperform it in power generation and green hydrogen is expected to undercut blue hydrogen by 2030. It warns against carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) due to high energy requirements and the risk of increasing net emissions.
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Document type: Briefing
Why wait until 2050?
The report examines the potential for accelerating the phase-out of oil and gas production in the Danish North Sea, specifically questioning the economic impacts and the point at which these activities become unprofitable for the state.
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Document type: Report
A path out of the gas crisis
Ember's analysis argues that the UK can reduce gas power generation to 1% by 2030, avoiding £93 billion in costs. This would require adding 90 GW of wind and solar capacity and utilizing green hydrogen and carbon capture and storage (CCS) for system balancing. The report emphasizes that high global gas prices make this transition an economic and security imperative.
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Document type: Research paper
LET’S GET ORGANIZED! LONG-TERM MARKET DESIGN FOR A HIGH PENETRATION GRID
The document argues that current US electricity market designs—including energy-only, capacity, and hybrid models—fail to support the rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) because they lack a functional 'energy markets cascade' that connects long-term investment to real-time pricing. To resolve this, the author proposes Organized Long-Term Markets (OLTMs), which would standardize long-term energy delivery contracts, increase liquidity and transparency, and allow for the optimization of diversified resource portfolios. The paper details the design of OLTMs, including the roles of producers, consumers, and facilitators, and applies the concept to the specific challenges faced by ERCOT, CAISO, and ISO New England.
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Document type: Research paper
MANAGING INFLATION BY SUPERCHARGING A CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION
The report analyzes how 'climateflation', 'fossilflation', and 'greenflation' impact price stability and proposes that the ECB align its operations with EU climate goals, implement green lending facilities for building renovation, and coordinate with the EIB and European Commission to fund a just energy transition.
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Document type: Report
Is the AfCFTA the ‘Game Changer’ for Africa?
The AfCFTA aims to create a $3.4 billion economic bloc to foster structural transformation through agricultural upgrading, light manufacturing growth, and the deepening of regional value chains (RVCs). While initial tariff offers show potential for significant gains, the document notes that the liberalisation of services has lagged, with a new deadline of December 2023. Implementation is supported by mechanisms like the Afreximbank Adjustment Fund and the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, though the authors highlight a critical weakness in accountability: private parties cannot access the AfCFTA's dispute settlement mechanism. The brief concludes that while the project is long-term and potentially 'oversold' to the private sector, it remains a vital instrument for overcoming the limitations of smaller regional economic communities.
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Document type: Policy brief
Ouémé Basin Climate-Resilience Initiative (OCRI) Benin
The Ouémé Basin Climate-Resilience Initiative (OCRI) is a six-year project in Benin designed to reduce climate vulnerability for 330,000 direct beneficiaries and 6 million indirect beneficiaries. The initiative focuses on the Upper and Middle Ouémé Basin, implementing a mix of hard infrastructure (micro-dams, water harvesting) and soft measures (climate-resilient agriculture, agroforestry) across 95,000 hectares. It targets key value chains including maize, cashew, shea, and mango to diversify income and reduce poverty. The project also establishes a multi-stakeholder platform to institutionalize integrated basin management and strengthens the financial capacity of the Fonds National pour l’Environnement (FNEC) to provide long-term climate finance.
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Document type: Report
A macroeconomics policy fit for the energy transition
The author contends that high fossil-fuel prices are essential market drivers for energy efficiency and the shift to renewables. To prevent social instability and energy poverty, the document proposes that EU governments avoid capping fuel prices and instead provide direct, inflation-linked compensation for heating, cooling, and food costs. Long-term recommendations include removing fossil-fuel subsidies, implementing a common EU carbon tax, expanding mass public transport, and shifting toward mission-oriented budgeting and ecological tax reform.
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Document type: Statement
Developments in Africa’s Free Trade Area: Opportunities for Korean Investors
The document analyzes the AfCFTA's potential to industrialize Africa and create a market of 1.3 billion consumers. It highlights a decline in Korea-Africa trade since 2011 and suggests that Korea leverage its strengths in capital goods, specifically the automotive and shipping sectors, to integrate into emerging African regional value chains. The authors recommend that Korea pursue formal economic partnership agreements with African regional economic communities, focusing on asymmetric trade liberalization and supporting Africa's green energy transition.
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Document type: Research paper
A pro-employment macroeconomic policy framework for Africa
The text argues that traditional market-centric macroeconomic policies focused on stabilisation have failed to generate sufficient employment in Africa, despite periods of economic growth. It advocates for a shift toward a 'transformative' role for macroeconomic policy that coordinates with sectoral and labour market policies to drive structural transformation and decent employment.
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Document type: Executive summary
Cradle to grave: The health harms of fossil fuel dependence and the case for a just phase-out
The document details how fossil fuel extraction, production, and combustion cause severe health harms, including respiratory diseases, cancers, and cardiovascular issues, while contributing to the global climate crisis. It highlights the economic burden of these health impacts, the role of fossil fuel subsidies in perpetuating harm, and proposes sector-specific solutions and a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to ensure a just transition.
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Document type: Briefing
REVEALING INCENTIVES IMPLICATIONS OF THE DESIGN OF PUBLIC RURAL INSURANCE POLICIES IN BRAZIL
The report compares the Agricultural Activity Guarantee Program (PROAGRO) and the Rural Insurance Premium Subsidy Program (PSR) in Brazil. It finds that PROAGRO's design, where the government bears the risk while financial institutions operate the program, leads to severe information asymmetries, moral hazard, and higher claim rates. In contrast, the PSR, where insurers bear the risk, provides stronger incentives for monitoring and selection, resulting in lower claim rates and a more sustainable financial balance. The authors recommend migrating resources from PROAGRO to the PSR, improving the training of claims adjusters, and incorporating parametric insurance and sustainable management criteria into policy design.
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Document type: Policy brief
No Grain Left Behind
The study found that actual harvest losses for corn (4.7%) and soybeans (4.5%) significantly exceed industry goals (1% and 3% respectively). These losses are primarily driven by combine settings and operator error, with smaller farms using less sophisticated equipment experiencing the highest losses. The report argues that reducing these losses could significantly decrease the pressure to convert natural prairies to cropland in the Northern Great Plains.
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Document type: Report
Mining Royalties and Socioeconomic Development in Pará
The briefing analyzes the impact of the Financial Compensation for the Exploration of Mineral Resources (CFEM) in Pará, Brazil. It finds that mining royalties do not foster economic growth or improve local welfare, as funds are frequently diverted to wages and pensions despite regulations. The authors recommend stricter spending limits and the creation of financial instruments to manage revenue volatility.
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Document type: Briefing
Accessibility in the Legal Amazon: Digital Solutions
The document examines the potential of information and communication technologies (ICT) to improve economic accessibility in the Legal Amazon. It reviews global evidence showing that mobile and broadband services increase productivity, employment, and market access in developing regions. In the Legal Amazon, the brief identifies significant gaps in 3G/4G mobile internet access in rural areas and broadband access in both urban and rural sectors compared to the rest of Brazil, recommending targeted infrastructure investments to overcome these barriers.
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Document type: Policy brief
The Shaky Economics of Gas-fired Power Generation
The report finds that gas-fired power plants in MISO and SPP frequently operate at a loss, costing ratepayers an estimated $117 million in 2019. This uneconomic generation is most prevalent in steam turbines and gas turbines, often driven by practices like self-scheduling and self-commitment. The authors argue that these inefficiencies, combined with rising fuel costs and the growth of renewables, make gas-fired power an increasingly risky and expensive investment compared to clean energy portfolios.
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Document type: Report
Low-Carbon Fuels Have a Limited Role to Play in New York’s Buildings
The document assesses the viability of low-carbon fuels for New York's building sector, concluding that they are inefficient and costly compared to direct electrification. It highlights that green hydrogen requires significantly more clean electricity than heat pumps and poses infrastructure risks like pipeline embrittlement. Additionally, it notes that biomethane supplies are insufficient to meet demand and that both biomethane and synthetic methane introduce new methane emission risks. The brief advocates for prioritizing energy efficiency and electrification to meet the goals of the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act.
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Document type: Policy brief