Search Climate Insights Directory
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BEYOND PARIS: USING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS TO MANAGE RISK
The document analyzes how two climate scenarios, Radical Emissions Reduction (RER) and High-end Climate Change (HCC), impact four Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the stability of Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. Under RER, the transition to meet Paris Agreement targets may trigger food-versus-fuel conflicts, gender-based violence from biofuel-driven displacement, and geopolitical instability in oil-dependent states. Conversely, the HCC scenario suggests that climate-driven agricultural failure and water scarcity would exacerbate armed conflicts, global inequality, and the influence of extremist groups. The authors argue that the short-term geopolitical costs of rapid climate action must be integrated into national policy formulation to manage risks effectively.
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Document type: Policy brief
Investing in Preparedness to Manage the Impacts of Rising Seas
Miami-Dade County faces significant risks from sea level rise, including a projected increase in tidal flooding from six events per year currently to over 380 by 2045. The document highlights threats to real estate, drinking water via the Biscayne Aquifer, electricity infrastructure, and the Everglades ecosystem. It emphasizes that pre-disaster investments are fiscally responsible, potentially saving four dollars for every dollar spent on mitigation, and calls for federal support to protect disadvantaged communities and reduce global emissions.
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Document type: Fact sheet
No one is safe
The report by Eyes on the Forest (EoF) reveals systemic illegality in the Indonesian palm oil sector, specifically in Riau and Sumatra. Through chain-of-custody tracking, EoF demonstrated that FFB illegally grown in Tesso Nilo National Park and the ex Dalek area reached CPO mills and refineries operated by global giants including Wilmar, RGE (Asian Agri and Apical), Golden Agri-Resources (GAR), and Musim Mas. The findings suggest that current traceability efforts focusing on the mill level are insufficient to prevent the seepage of illegal products, as illegal FFB can travel up to 128 km to reach mills. The report argues that the high prevalence of illegal plantations—estimated by the Indonesian government at 50% in Riau—makes almost all CPO mills in the region high-risk, necessitating a shift toward full traceability to the plantation level.
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Document type: Report
The risky promise of ‘negative emissions’: Why we should not assume that land-based measures will save the climate
The document argues that relying on future negative emissions to offset current insufficient climate action is a high-risk strategy. It identifies three primary risks: technological and biophysical infeasibility, unacceptable social and ecological impacts, and the potential for these measures to be less effective than expected due to reversals or irreversible climate tipping points. The authors conclude that while some land-based sequestration is possible, it cannot reach the scales often assumed in climate models without severe trade-offs.
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Document type: Policy brief
THE PARIS AGREEMENT
The Paris Agreement establishes a global mandate to hold warming well below 2C and reach net zero emissions in the second half of the century. For businesses, this creates a structural shift in energy, land use, and urban systems, offering trillions of dollars in investment opportunities in renewables and energy efficiency. The report emphasizes the importance of internal carbon pricing for risk management and highlights specific vulnerabilities in sectors like textiles in Bangladesh and agriculture in Ethiopia. It argues that the agreement provides long-term policy certainty, making the transition to a clean economy inevitable and irresistible for the private sector.
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Document type: Report
Water-Energy Nexus: Business Risks and Rewards
The report examines the 'water-energy nexus,' where water scarcity threatens energy production and energy costs impact water provision. It analyzes three case studies: the Middle East and North Africa's reliance on energy-intensive desalination, China's coal-fired power plants facing high water stress, and the United States' water-intensive hydraulic fracturing for shale gas. The document argues that companies can mitigate these risks by shifting from expanding supply to reducing demand, scaling alternative water sources like reclaimed wastewater and brackish water, and adopting clean energy resources such as solar and wind.
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Document type: Report
Central Asia Climate Hotspot
Central Asia faces significant environmental, social, and political vulnerabilities due to the loss of common governance frameworks and the persistence of unsustainable agricultural and resource-based practices. These risks are compounded by the potential impacts of climate change, particularly indirect effects transmitted across borders through shared water resources, supply chains, and population movements.
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Document type: Report
Using nature to pardon environmental pollution
The document examines the risks of using agricultural soil carbon sequestration as carbon offsets. It highlights technical failures in measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV), the non-permanence of biological carbon compared to fossil carbon, and social risks such as land grabbing and the marginalization of small-scale farmers. The author argues that 'Climate Smart Agriculture' often serves as greenwashing for agribusiness corporations. Instead of carbon markets, the report recommends using National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) to prioritize food security, tenure rights, and sustainable rural livelihoods.
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Document type: Report
Surviving and Thriving in the Face of Rising Seas
The Union of Concerned Scientists developed a screening tool to identify coastal 'climate equity hotspots' where high climate risk overlaps with socioeconomic vulnerability. Applying this to 35 counties across the East and Gulf Coasts, the report finds that low-income and minority communities face disproportionate burdens from sea level rise and storm surges, often exacerbated by inadequate disaster recovery policies. It advocates for targeted federal funding, inclusive stakeholder engagement, and the use of actionable science to build resilience in frontline communities.
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Document type: Executive summary
Surviving and Thriving in the Face of Rising Seas
The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) report identifies coastal communities where socioeconomic vulnerability and climate risks overlap, creating 'climate equity hotspots.' Using a pilot study of 35 counties across nine U.S. states, the report demonstrates that African American, Latino, and Native American communities often face higher exposure to sea level rise and tidal flooding while possessing fewer resources to adapt. The authors propose a screening tool based on climate and socioeconomic indicators to guide more equitable distribution of federal and state resilience funding. The report concludes with policy recommendations to upgrade affordable housing, improve transportation for evacuations, and ensure inclusive stakeholder engagement in climate planning.
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Document type: Report
Sobrevivir y prosperar ante el crecimiento de los mares
The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) identifies a critical need for equitable climate resilience planning in the United States, specifically for frontline coastal communities. The report introduces a screening tool that combines climate risk indicators (sea-level rise and tidal flooding) with socioeconomic data (income, poverty, race, and education) to identify 'climate equity hotspots'. Applying this tool to 35 counties across nine states, the analysis finds that the Gulf Coast and Mid-Atlantic regions face the highest risks, with Orleans Parish, Louisiana, identified as the most vulnerable hotspot. The report argues that current disaster aid often fails marginalized groups due to bureaucratic hurdles and a focus on homeowners over renters. It recommends that federal and state agencies direct funding to high-risk communities, integrate the best available climate science into planning, and increase overall funding for climate resilience.
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Document type: Executive summary
Surviving and Thriving in the Face of Rising Seas
The document details a screening methodology to assess the joint vulnerability of 35 U.S. coastal counties by combining socioeconomic data and climate projections. It utilizes a linear scaling technique to normalize variables—including per-capita income, poverty rates, and projected sea level rise—into composite risk indicators. The analysis incorporates historical damage data from SHELDUS and storm surge modeling for specific case studies to identify areas of high vulnerability.
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Document type: Report
Lights Out?
The report examines how rising sea levels and storm surges threaten critical electricity infrastructure, such as substations and power plants, in five major U.S. coastal regions. It finds that significant portions of the grid are already exposed to flooding, which can lead to widespread and prolonged power outages. The authors argue that current planning relies on outdated historical data and recommend a shift toward decentralized, resilient clean energy systems—including microgrids, energy storage, and combined heat and power plants—alongside infrastructure adaptation strategies like protection, accommodation, and retreat.
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Document type: Report
Storm Surge and Blackouts in the South Carolina Lowcountry, and How Clean Energy Can Help
The Union of Concerned Scientists finds that significant electricity infrastructure along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts is currently exposed to storm surge, a risk that will increase with sea level rise. In the South Carolina Lowcountry, 54 major substations and seven power plants are currently at risk. The report advocates for adaptation strategies—protection, accommodation, and retreat—and the deployment of decentralized clean energy technologies like microgrids and energy storage to ensure community resilience and reduce carbon emissions.
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Document type: Report
Storm Surge and Blackouts in Southeastern Florida, and How Clean Energy Can Help
The Union of Concerned Scientists finds that significant portions of the U.S. East and Gulf Coast electricity grids are exposed to storm surge, a risk that will increase as sea levels rise. In southeastern Florida, the number of major substations at risk from a Category 3 storm is projected to triple by 2070. The report advocates for a shift from centralized grids to decentralized, resilient power systems—such as microgrids and renewable energy with storage—to protect critical facilities and reduce carbon emissions.
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Document type: Report
Storm Surge and Blackouts in Southeastern Virginia, and How Clean Energy Can Help
The report finds that significant portions of the U.S. East and Gulf Coast electricity grids are currently exposed to storm surge, with risks increasing as sea levels rise. In southeastern Virginia, 43 percent of major substations and four power plants are at risk today. The authors advocate for a shift from centralized grids to decentralized, resilient power systems—including microgrids and renewable energy with storage—to maintain critical services during outages and reduce the carbon emissions driving climate change.
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Document type: Report
Lights Out? Storm Surge, Blackouts, and How Clean Energy Can Help
The document describes the methodology for assessing the exposure of power plants and substations to flooding under a Category 3 hurricane scenario across five U.S. coastal regions. It utilizes the National Climate Assessment's Intermediate-High sea level rise scenario and the SLOSH model for storm surge, projecting risks through 2070. The analysis identifies a growing number of 'exposed' facilities, particularly in the Central Gulf Coast and Southeastern Florida, while noting limitations such as the exclusion of small distribution-level substations and the potential for local flood protection measures to mitigate risk.
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Document type: Report
Rating the States on Their Risk of Natural Gas Overreliance
The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) analysis finds that two-thirds of U.S. states may be exposing electricity consumers to financial risks due to overreliance on natural gas. These risks include price volatility, potential carbon pricing costs, and the possibility of stranded assets such as underused plants and pipelines. The report rates states across five categories, identifying Florida as the only state with a "High" risk rating in all five. To mitigate these risks, the report advocates for prioritizing renewable energy and energy efficiency over natural gas as a primary solution for carbon reduction under the federal Clean Power Plan.
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Document type: Report
Rating the States on Their Risk of Natural Gas Overreliance
The Union of Concerned Scientists analyzed 50 U.S. states to identify those at high risk of natural gas overreliance in the power sector. The analysis uses five metrics: the share of in-state electricity production from natural gas in 2014, the increase in that share from 2008 to 2014, the share of new capacity being built from natural gas (2014–2017), total projected natural gas capacity in 2017, and 2013 power sector carbon dioxide emissions. The report highlights that excessive reliance on natural gas exposes ratepayers to fuel price volatility and the risk of 'stranded assets' from infrastructure that may become underused or abandoned. It also notes that a shift from coal to gas is insufficient for long-term climate goals due to continued significant emissions upon combustion.
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Document type: Report
UK nuclear weapons catastrophe making
The report contends that the UK's Trident nuclear weapons system poses an unacceptable risk to human civilisation, arguing that its use would be 'both genocidal and suicidal'. It highlights that a single Trident submarine carries enough firepower to cause over 10 million civilian casualties and trigger a 'nuclear winter' that could threaten 2 billion people with starvation. The authors argue that the probability of unintentional use is 'not negligible' and that the system's cost—estimated up to £100bn over its lifetime—diverts essential funds from health, welfare, and climate change mitigation. The document concludes that the UK should cancel Trident replacement, remove weapons from continuous patrol, and support an international treaty to ban nuclear weapons.
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Document type: Report