Surviving and Thriving in the Face of Rising Seas

The document details a screening methodology to assess the joint vulnerability of 35 U.S. coastal counties by combining socioeconomic data and climate projections. It utilizes a linear scaling technique to normalize variables—including per-capita income, poverty rates, and projected sea level rise—into composite risk indicators. The analysis incorporates historical damage data from SHELDUS and storm surge modeling for specific case studies to identify areas of high vulnerability.

• The socioeconomic risk indicator for the 35 analyzed counties was constructed using four specific variables: per-capita income, poverty rate, the percentage of adults without a high school diploma, and the percentage of the minority population.
• The climate risk indicator is based on projected sea level rise and tidal flooding frequency for the year 2045, using NOAA's Intermediate-High scenario adjusted for local variation.
• For 10 of the 35 counties, reliable tidal-flood-frequency data were unavailable, meaning their climate risk indicators relied solely on sea level rise projections for 2045. These counties include Jefferson, Orleans, Plaquemines, St. Tammany, and St. Bernard parishes in Louisiana; Harrison and Jackson counties in Mississippi; Indian River and Lee counties in Florida; and Westmoreland County in Virginia.
• The study used the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS) to analyze historical climate damages between 1985 and 2014, focusing on four hazard types: Coastal, Flooding, Hurricane/Tropical Storm, and Wind.
• The researchers employed a linear scaling technique to normalize different variables into a common 0-1 scale, allowing them to be combined into composite percentage scores that compare counties relative to one another within the 35-county sample.
• Specific storm surge exposure mapping using NOAA's SLOSH model was conducted for four case study counties: Plaquemines Parish (Louisiana), Dorchester County (Maryland), Harrison County (Mississippi), and Charleston County (South Carolina).
• Miami-Dade County, Florida, was evaluated using a different approach via NOAA’s Coastal Flood Exposure Mapper because the underlying Biscayne aquifer prevents rapid drainage of flood waters.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (2015). Surviving and Thriving in the Face of Rising Seas. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/11/surviving-and-thriving-technical-appendix.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. Surviving and Thriving in the Face of Rising Seas. 2015. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/11/surviving-and-thriving-technical-appendix.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=Surviving and Thriving in the Face of Rising Seas |date=November 2015 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/11/surviving-and-thriving-technical-appendix.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientists2015surviving, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{Surviving and Thriving in the Face of Rising Seas}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2015}, month = nov, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/11/surviving-and-thriving-technical-appendix.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }