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The report finds that by mid-century, between USD 300 million and almost USD 1 billion in annual soy trade bound for Europe could be exposed to disruption due to critically low river levels at the ports of Manaus and Santarém. This risk is driven by a combination of climate change and Amazon deforestation, which reduces rainfall and moisture cycling. The analysis highlights that major commodity traders like Cargill, Amaggi, and Bunge face significant financial exposure, and that EU importers are particularly vulnerable given their reliance on Brazilian soy for livestock feed. The document argues that protecting the Amazon forest is essential for maintaining the physical river infrastructure that compliant, deforestation-free supply chains depend on.

Germany's coffee industry, worth EUR 20 billion annually, faces significant risks as over 98% of its imports originate from countries highly or moderately vulnerable to climate change. Climate-induced supply shocks led to a 43% increase in roasted coffee prices for German consumers in 2025. To counter this, Germany utilizes climate finance through bodies like GIZ and BMZ to fund adaptation projects, such as agroforestry and regenerative techniques, in producing regions. Examples include the Yayu Forest Biosphere Reserve project in Ethiopia and the Coffee++ initiative in Asia and Africa, which aim to stabilize yields and diversify supply sources to reduce dependence on volatile markets like Brazil and Vietnam.

The report argues that Brazil's plan to increase oil and gas production by 20% by 2030, largely driven by Petrobras, carries significant economic and climate risks. It finds that a majority of Petrobras' new projects would be economically unviable in a 1.5°C warming scenario and recommends that the government curb expansion, redefine Petrobras' mandate toward a transition plan, and redirect investment to avoid potential stranded asset losses of USD 13 to 36 billion.

South Africa faces significant trade risks as its carbon-intensive export model clashes with global net zero targets and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs). Approximately 78% of its exports are sold to countries with net zero targets, and hundreds of thousands of jobs are exposed to CBAMs in the EU and UK. High embodied CO2 emissions in the basic metals and automotive sectors, combined with a carbon-intensive electricity grid, threaten competitiveness. However, the document notes South Africa's potential to pivot using its critical minerals and renewable energy resources, provided that international financial commitments like the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) are fulfilled.

Brazil is projected to increase oil and gas production by over 20% by 2030, with Petrobras driving more than half of this growth. However, analysis shows that up to 85% of Petrobrass new oil production would be economically unviable in a 1.5C world, creating significant stranded asset risks. Petrobras plans to invest USD 97 billion in oil and gas from 2025 to 2029, which is six times its spending on decarbonization and diversification. The report finds that Petrobras lags industry peers in target setting and business model diversification. To mitigate these risks, the authors recommend that the Brazilian government curb exploration licenses, redefine Petrobrass mandate toward a "harvest mode" strategy, and redirect financial flows toward clean energy, where an annual investment gap of USD 16 billion is projected by 2035.

The report finds that Canada is highly exposed to economic risks due to overinvestment in oil and gas relative to the global energy transition. Using IEA demand scenarios, it estimates that between 5% (Stated Policies Scenario) and 66% (Net Zero Emissions scenario) of projected capital investment from 2025 to 2040 could be stranded. The analysis indicates that Canadian oil is among the world's most expensive to produce, making it particularly vulnerable to price drops. The report argues that restricting the development of new fields and engaging in international diplomacy to reduce global supply could protect the industry's overall value and increase government revenues by preventing oversupply and price deflation. It also notes that U.S. tariffs on energy imports would likely amplify these risks by making Canadian production less competitive.

The document warns that Canada faces significant economic risks if it follows the United States' lead in rolling back climate policies, as the rest of the world continues to transition toward clean energy. It highlights the rapid growth of electric vehicles globally, the expansion of carbon markets in China and India, and the implementation of carbon tariffs in the EU and UK. To maintain competitiveness and diversify exports, the author urges the Canadian federal government to strengthen industrial carbon pricing, finalize methane regulations for oil and gas, complete clean electricity investment tax credits, and publish a domestic climate taxonomy.

The report argues that European oil and gas companies are pursuing LNG projects in Africa that expose host countries to significant financial and environmental risks. Due to delayed revenue-sharing structures and a predicted global LNG supply glut by the 2030s, African states face the prospect of stranded assets and debt traps. The document highlights a contradiction between Europe's domestic decarbonization goals and its promotion of fossil fuel infrastructure in Africa, while noting that high breakeven costs make African producers particularly vulnerable to price competition.

The document highlights a 73% decline in average wildlife populations since 1970 as a critical warning for the global economy. It asserts that nature loss threatens global GDP, with specific risks identified in the EU and Asia Pacific, and predicts a potential $2.7 trillion loss by 2030 due to the collapse of ecosystem services. The author calls on the business and finance sectors to transition toward net-zero, nature-positive markets using tools like the Biodiversity Risk Filter and Science-Based Targets for Nature.

The report evaluates Nigeria's strategy to expand LNG production to offset declining oil revenues, warning that such investments risk becoming stranded assets as global demand shifts toward clean energy after 2030. It highlights that while Nigeria is the world's sixth-largest LNG exporter, the sector has not significantly improved domestic energy access or reduced poverty, and continues to be linked to environmental degradation and social conflict in the Niger Delta.

The report asserts that limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires a drastic reduction in oil and gas production, potentially between 58% and 99% by 2050. It highlights a significant 'production gap,' noting that current government plans for 2030 exceed 1.5°C-consistent levels by 29% for oil and 82% for gas. The document advocates for a 'just transition' that prioritizes phase-outs in developed and low-dependency economies while providing financial and technical support to the Global South. Key recommendations include ending new field development, reforming fossil fuel subsidies, and transforming national oil companies into clean energy entities.

The document warns that Mozambique and Tanzania face significant risks of stranded gas infrastructure due to declining global markets, prices, and investor capital. It argues that both export-focused LNG projects and domestic gas-led industrialisation strategies are economically vulnerable, noting that using gas for power and industry is likely to remain an expensive option.

The brief argues that Colombia should not develop offshore gas fields that have been licensed but have not yet reached a final investment decision, as doing so would conflict with Paris-aligned energy scenarios and the government's commitment to avoid new oil and gas licenses.

Natural gas is the fastest growing source of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, with methane leakage potentially making its climate impact equivalent to coal. To align with the 1.5°C goal, global gas production and consumption must decrease by 30% by 2030 and 65% by 2050, with developed countries phasing out gas power by 2035. The document rejects the use of gas as a bridge fuel or a solution to the 2022 energy crisis, noting that expanding infrastructure creates stranded asset risks, particularly for non-OECD countries. It further argues that converting gas infrastructure to hydrogen is technically unproven and economically inefficient, and highlights severe public health risks associated with gas extraction, flaring, and domestic use.

The report warns African nations against relying on fossil fuel investments, citing the 'green paradox' and the risk of stranded assets in Mozambique and Tanzania. It advocates for a strategic shift toward clean energy value chains and the use of COP27 to mobilise funding for domestic energy needs, rather than focusing on gas extraction for the Global North.

A fact sheet by the NewClimate Institute arguing that natural gas cannot sustainably meet Africa's energy demands and that the continent should instead transition to renewable energy to avoid stranded assets and economic risks.

The report analyzes British Columbia's position in the global transition to carbon neutrality, highlighting a low overall proportion of workers in vulnerable sectors (3%) but significant localized risks in rural communities dependent on metallurgical coal and natural gas. It identifies strong competitive advantages, including the CleanBC roadmap and a low-carbon electricity grid, and notes the growth of 175 transition-supporting companies. However, it warns that policy misalignment and a focus on multinational firms over small-to-medium enterprises may hinder the province's ability to fully capitalize on clean tech opportunities.

Coal producers in the US and Canada plan to invest $4.8 billion USD in 15 new metallurgical coal mines to produce 38 million tonnes annually for export, primarily to Asia Pacific markets. However, Global Energy Monitor argues these projects face high risks of economic and regulatory stranding. The global steel industry is under pressure to shift from coal-based blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) processes to lower-emissions alternatives like electric arc furnaces (EAF) and direct reduced iron (DRI) to meet net-zero targets. Major importers such as China, Japan, South Korea, and India have committed to carbon reduction, while domestic steel production in the US and Canada is already declining or transitioning away from coal. Furthermore, existing reserves in North America are sufficient to sustain current production levels until at least 2032, making new capacity largely unnecessary.

This research paper examines the economic viability of the natural gas industry in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia, arguing that the region is vulnerable to low prices and a global shift toward low-carbon energy sources.

The report finds that global LNG terminal capacity under construction more than doubled between 2019 and 2020, increasing capital expenditure from $82.8 billion to $196.1 billion. This expansion is primarily driven by North American efforts to create new markets, but faces significant headwinds from the COVID-19 pandemic, falling gas prices, and intensifying opposition. The authors argue that the 'bridge fuel' narrative is undermined by high methane leakage rates, with some estimates suggesting LNG-powered electricity can have a global warming impact up to 16% higher than coal. Furthermore, the report highlights a high failure rate for proposed export projects (61% since 2014) and the risk of stranded assets as renewables become more cost-competitive.