Transitioning Away From Oil and Gas

The report asserts that limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires a drastic reduction in oil and gas production, potentially between 58% and 99% by 2050. It highlights a significant 'production gap,' noting that current government plans for 2030 exceed 1.5°C-consistent levels by 29% for oil and 82% for gas. The document advocates for a 'just transition' that prioritizes phase-outs in developed and low-dependency economies while providing financial and technical support to the Global South. Key recommendations include ending new field development, reforming fossil fuel subsidies, and transforming national oil companies into clean energy entities.

• To limit warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century, global oil and gas production must decrease by between 58% and 99% by 2050.
• Current government production plans are inconsistent with climate targets; by 2030, they expect to produce 29% more oil and 82% more gas than a 1.5°C pathway allows, with the gap widening to 260% for oil and 210% for gas by 2050.
• Analysis from the IEA and IPCC suggests that global energy needs aligned with the Paris Agreement can be met without the development of any new oil and gas fields.
• The report proposes five principles for an equitable phase-out: aligning pace with 1.5°C targets, enabling just transitions for workers/communities, stopping production that violates human rights, phasing out fastest in low-dependency countries, and sharing transition costs based on ability to pay.
• Existing oil and gas infrastructure poses a severe risk of stranded assets, with physical asset values estimated at over USD 1 trillion in 2022, and potential investor losses in the trillions of dollars.
• Investment treaties, specifically the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT), create legal barriers to phase-outs by allowing investors to sue governments for lost future profits, as seen in a case where Italy paid over EUR 205 million to Rockhopper Explorations.
• The report identifies a 'green paradox' where the expectation that fossil fuel demand will eventually end incentivizes producers to accelerate current production to exhaust reserves while demand still exists.
• National oil companies (NOCs) control half of global production and two-thirds of reserves, but their current decarbonization plans focus on operational (Scope 1 and 2) emissions rather than business model transformation.

APA

von Kursk, O. B., Culbert, V., Darby, M., Gerasimchuk, I., Jones, N., Kuehl, J., Muttitt, G., Picciariello, A., Ullah, F., & Parra, P. A. Y. (2024). Transitioning Away From Oil and Gas. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-05/transitioning-away-from-oil-gas.pdf

Chicago

von Kursk, Olivier Bois, Vance Culbert, Megan Darby, Ivetta Gerasimchuk, Natalie Jones, Jonas Kuehl, Greg Muttitt, et al. Transitioning Away From Oil and Gas. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2024. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-05/transitioning-away-from-oil-gas.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{vonkursk2024transitioning, author = {von Kursk, Olivier Bois and Culbert, Vance and Darby, Megan and Gerasimchuk, Ivetta and Jones, Natalie and Kuehl, Jonas and Muttitt, Greg and Picciariello, Angela and Ullah, Farooq and Parra, Paola Andrea Yanguas}, title = {{Transitioning Away From Oil and Gas}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2024}, month = may, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-05/transitioning-away-from-oil-gas.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }