Almost USD 1 billion in Europe-bound Brazilian soy exposed to river port disruption annually by mid-century

A report by Zero Carbon Analytics quantifies the economic risk to Europe-bound Brazilian soy exports caused by declining river levels in the Amazon. The analysis indicates that by mid-century, up to USD 1 billion in annual soy trade passing through the ports of Manaus and Santarém could be exposed to disruption due to critically low river flows driven by climate change and deforestation.

• By mid-century, annual soy trade valued between USD 300 million and nearly USD 1 billion will transit the ports of Manaus and Santarém during periods of critically low river levels, which may constrain or delay vessel navigation.
• The projected risk represents more than one-third of the USD 2.4 billion in Europe-bound soy that annually passes through the Manaus and Santarém ports.
• Major agricultural commodity traders face significant financial exposure by the 2060s; Cargill, Amaggi, and Bunge could have a combined annual risk of up to USD 440 million, with Cargill alone facing up to USD 346 million.
• Specific European nations face varying levels of annual soy trade disruption by mid-century: Spain up to USD 146 million, the UK up to USD 50 million, and the Netherlands up to USD 72 million.
• Deforestation exacerbates drought intensity by reducing moisture cycling; a 2026 Nature paper noted that the southern Amazon basin saw an 8-11% drop in annual precipitation over 40 years, with up to 75% of this linked to deforestation.
• Recent climate events in 2023-2024 demonstrated the immediate impact of these risks: the Madeira River hit a record low, reducing cargo transport by 60% and doubling travel times, while river transport capacity in Amazonia fell by 40-50%.
• The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) targets deforestation at the point of production but does not address the resilience of the river infrastructure in Brazil, meaning compliant supply chains remain exposed to physical disruption.

APA

Bentley-McKune, J. (2026). Almost USD 1 billion in Europe-bound Brazilian soy exposed to river port disruption annually by mid-century. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/nature/almost-usd-1-billion-in-europe-bound-brazilian-soy-exposed-to-river-port-disruption-annually-by-mid-century/

Chicago

Bentley-McKune, Joanne. Almost USD 1 billion in Europe-bound Brazilian soy exposed to river port disruption annually by mid-century. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2026. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/nature/almost-usd-1-billion-in-europe-bound-brazilian-soy-exposed-to-river-port-disruption-annually-by-mid-century/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bentley-McKune |first1=Joanne |title=Almost USD 1 billion in Europe-bound Brazilian soy exposed to river port disruption annually by mid-century |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=11 June 2026 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/nature/almost-usd-1-billion-in-europe-bound-brazilian-soy-exposed-to-river-port-disruption-annually-by-mid-century/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bentleymckune2026almost, author = {Bentley-McKune, Joanne}, title = {{Almost USD 1 billion in Europe-bound Brazilian soy exposed to river port disruption annually by mid-century}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/nature/almost-usd-1-billion-in-europe-bound-brazilian-soy-exposed-to-river-port-disruption-annually-by-mid-century/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }