Almost USD 1 billion in Europe-bound Brazilian soy exposed to river port disruption annually by mid-century

The report finds that by mid-century, between USD 300 million and almost USD 1 billion in annual soy trade bound for Europe could be exposed to disruption due to critically low river levels at the ports of Manaus and Santarém. This risk is driven by a combination of climate change and Amazon deforestation, which reduces rainfall and moisture cycling. The analysis highlights that major commodity traders like Cargill, Amaggi, and Bunge face significant financial exposure, and that EU importers are particularly vulnerable given their reliance on Brazilian soy for livestock feed. The document argues that protecting the Amazon forest is essential for maintaining the physical river infrastructure that compliant, deforestation-free supply chains depend on.

• By mid-century, annual soy trade bound for Europe transiting the ports of Manaus and Santarém during critically low river levels is projected to be between USD 300 million and almost USD 1 billion. At the higher estimate, this represents more than one-third of the USD 2.4 billion in annual Europe-bound soy passing through these ports.
• Major agricultural commodity traders face significant financial risk from port disruptions by the 2060s, with a combined exposure of up to USD 440 million. Cargill has the highest potential exposure at up to USD 346 million annually, followed by Amaggi (up to USD 60.5 million) and Bunge (up to USD 30 million).
• Specific European nations face varying levels of annual soy trade disruption by mid-century: Spain could see disruptions up to USD 146 million, the Netherlands up to USD 72 million, and the UK up to USD 50 million.
• Deforestation in the Amazon exacerbates drought and river flow decline by reducing moisture cycling and altering rainfall patterns. A 2026 Nature paper indicated that the southern basin saw an 8-11% decline in annual precipitation over 40 years, with up to 75% of this linked to deforestation.
• Recent extreme weather events have already caused severe economic losses in the region. In 2024, Hidrovias do Brasil reported a net loss exceeding USD 100 million (BRL 622 million) due to drought-disrupted navigation routes, while the Madeira River reached a record low that reduced cargo transport by 60%.
• There is a risk that river disruptions could accelerate deforestation if producers shift agricultural land closer to alternative transport corridors when river routes become unreliable.
• The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) targets deforestation at the point of production but does not address the resilience of the river infrastructure. Consequently, some of the most compliant supply chains—at least 41.6% of soy through these ports is already under zero-deforestation commitments—are also the most exposed to physical port disruption.

APA

Bentley-McKune, J. (2026). Almost USD 1 billion in Europe-bound Brazilian soy exposed to river port disruption annually by mid-century. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/nature/almost-usd-1-billion-in-europe-bound-brazilian-soy-exposed-to-river-port-disruption-annually-by-mid-century/

Chicago

Bentley-McKune, Joanne. Almost USD 1 billion in Europe-bound Brazilian soy exposed to river port disruption annually by mid-century. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2026. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/nature/almost-usd-1-billion-in-europe-bound-brazilian-soy-exposed-to-river-port-disruption-annually-by-mid-century/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bentley-McKune |first1=Joanne |title=Almost USD 1 billion in Europe-bound Brazilian soy exposed to river port disruption annually by mid-century |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=11 June 2026 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/nature/almost-usd-1-billion-in-europe-bound-brazilian-soy-exposed-to-river-port-disruption-annually-by-mid-century/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bentleymckune2026almost, author = {Bentley-McKune, Joanne}, title = {{Almost USD 1 billion in Europe-bound Brazilian soy exposed to river port disruption annually by mid-century}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/nature/almost-usd-1-billion-in-europe-bound-brazilian-soy-exposed-to-river-port-disruption-annually-by-mid-century/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }