Brazil at a Crossroads

The report argues that Brazil's plan to increase oil and gas production by 20% by 2030, largely driven by Petrobras, carries significant economic and climate risks. It finds that a majority of Petrobras' new projects would be economically unviable in a 1.5°C warming scenario and recommends that the government curb expansion, redefine Petrobras' mandate toward a transition plan, and redirect investment to avoid potential stranded asset losses of USD 13 to 36 billion.

• A significant portion of Petrobras' new oil projects are economically unviable under global climate goals; specifically, up to 85% of the oil in these projects cannot be profitably extracted if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, and the riskiest projects require warming to exceed 2.4°C to be profitable.
• Petrobras' financial priorities are heavily skewed toward fossil fuels, with plans to invest USD 97 billion in oil and gas activities from 2025 to 2029, while only 15% of its budget is allocated to clean energy diversification and decarbonizing operations.
• Petrobras underperforms compared to other leading oil and gas companies regarding climate performance, particularly in its diversification strategy, emissions targets, and the carbon intensity of its products.

APA

Erhan,, O. B. V. K. R. J. F. S. H. V. (2025). Brazil at a Crossroads. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/brazil-petrobras-oil-gas-expansion

Chicago

Erhan,, Olivier Bois von Kursk,Joachim Roth,Ricardo Junqueira Fujii,Carolyne Schiavo,Laura Hurtado Verazaín,Emir. Brazil at a Crossroads. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2025. https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/brazil-petrobras-oil-gas-expansion.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Erhan, |first1=Olivier Bois von Kursk,Joachim Roth,Ricardo Junqueira Fujii,Carolyne Schiavo,Laura Hurtado Verazaín,Emir |title=Brazil at a Crossroads |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=12 June 2025 |url=https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/brazil-petrobras-oil-gas-expansion |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{erhan2025brazil, author = {Erhan,, Olivier Bois von Kursk,Joachim Roth,Ricardo Junqueira Fujii,Carolyne Schiavo,Laura Hurtado Verazaín,Emir}, title = {{Brazil at a Crossroads}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/brazil-petrobras-oil-gas-expansion}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }