Brazil at a Crossroads

An executive summary by the International Institute for Sustainable Development, WWF-Brazil, and the World Benchmarking Alliance analyzing the economic risks of Brazil's planned oil and gas expansion and the climate performance of Petrobras.

• Brazil intends to increase oil and gas production by 20% by 2030, with the national oil company Petrobras responsible for over half of this growth. Petrobras intends to invest USD 97 billion in oil and gas exploration, production, transportation, and refining between 2025 and 2029, while only 15% of its budget is allocated to clean energy diversification and decarbonizing operations.
• A significant portion of Petrobras' new projects are economically risky under climate goals. Up to 85% of oil in these projects is not economically viable if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, and the riskiest ventures require global warming to exceed 2.4°C to be profitable. Redirecting investment away from new fields could save Petrobras between USD 13 billion and USD 36 billion in stranded asset losses.
• Petrobras underperforms compared to other leading oil and gas companies regarding climate performance, specifically in areas of diversification strategy, emissions targets, and the carbon intensity of its products.

APA

Erhan,, O. B. V. K. R. J. F. S. H. V. (2025). Brazil at a Crossroads. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/brazil-petrobras-oil-gas-expansion

Chicago

Erhan,, Olivier Bois von Kursk,Joachim Roth,Ricardo Junqueira Fujii,Carolyne Schiavo,Laura Hurtado Verazaín,Emir. Brazil at a Crossroads. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2025. https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/brazil-petrobras-oil-gas-expansion.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Erhan, |first1=Olivier Bois von Kursk,Joachim Roth,Ricardo Junqueira Fujii,Carolyne Schiavo,Laura Hurtado Verazaín,Emir |title=Brazil at a Crossroads |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=12 June 2025 |url=https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/brazil-petrobras-oil-gas-expansion |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{erhan2025brazil, author = {Erhan,, Olivier Bois von Kursk,Joachim Roth,Ricardo Junqueira Fujii,Carolyne Schiavo,Laura Hurtado Verazaín,Emir}, title = {{Brazil at a Crossroads}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/brazil-petrobras-oil-gas-expansion}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }