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1,285 documents from Union of Concerned Scientists
Front Lines: Rising Seas
The document projects that sea levels at NSB Kings Bay will rise between 3.7 and 6.1 feet by the end of the century, leading to more frequent tidal flooding and severe storm surge. Under a highest-scenario Category 4 storm in 2100, nearly 95 percent of the base could be flooded, with over half of that area under 20 feet of water. The author argues that there is a large gap in military preparedness and calls for Congress and the Department of Defense to provide high-resolution modeling, funding for tide gauge networks, and resources for detailed mapping and adaptive planning.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Naval Air Station Key West, Florida
NAS Key West, a 5,800-acre installation providing critical training and support for US military operations, faces significant risks from rising sea levels. Projections for the Florida Keys indicate sea levels could rise between 3.8 and 6.2 feet this century, threatening land that currently sits at elevations of three feet or less. The document argues that a large gap exists between current military preparedness and these threats, calling for increased funding for high-resolution flooding models, tide gauge networks, and detailed mapping to implement long-term adaptive measures.
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Document type: Case study
USCG Sandy Hook
USCG Station Sandy Hook, a critical life-saving and security installation in New Jersey, faces significant risks from rising seas. Projections indicate that by 2100, sea levels in the area could rise between four and 6.4 feet. Under a 'highest' scenario, nearly three-quarters of the station's land area could flood with daily high tides by 2100. Additionally, the area exposed to five feet or more of seawater during Category 1 storm surges is projected to increase from 30% today to roughly 80% by 2100 under an intermediate scenario. The document argues that there is a large gap in military preparedness and calls for increased funding for high-resolution modeling, tide gauge networks, and detailed mapping to implement adaptive measures.
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Document type: Case study
California’s Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) Program
California's Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) requires utilities to source 50 percent of retail electricity from renewables by 2030. As of 2015, the program has led to over 500 projects generating nearly 50,000 gigawatt-hours annually, accounting for roughly 25 percent of the state's electricity. The policy has driven significant investments in solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and biogas, while supporting over 79,000 jobs in the wind and solar sectors. The document highlights that the RPS has helped reduce electricity sector emissions by 14 percent between 2003 and 2013 and argues for the establishment of new policy signals to guide investments beyond 2030.
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Document type: Fact sheet
The Benefits of Clean Car Standards in the Northeast
The National Program for fuel efficiency and emissions standards is critical for the Northeast, where passenger vehicles account for over 25% of regional emissions. The program has already reduced oil consumption by 1.3 billion gallons since 2011 and is projected to lower global warming pollution by 75 million metric tons per year by 2030. Economically, it is estimated to save the average Northeast household over $2,400 annually by 2030 and create more than 125,000 regional jobs.
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Document type: Fact sheet
The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas
The Union of Concerned Scientists analyzed 18 strategic US military installations on the East and Gulf coasts, finding that most face significant risks from rising seas. Under a 'highest' scenario of sea level rise, some bases could lose between 75 and 95 percent of their land area by 2100. The report highlights that tidal flooding frequency will increase steeply, and storm surges will reach further inland and with greater depth. It emphasizes the need for high-resolution mapping and regional collaboration, noting that the vulnerability of surrounding low-income and minority communities can further compromise base operations.
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Document type: Executive summary
The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas
The document details the technical approach used by the Union of Concerned Scientists to evaluate coastal flooding risks for US military bases. It describes the use of the NOAA SLOSH model for storm surge, the NOAA Inundation Analysis tool for tidal flooding, and Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) levels for permanent inundation. The analysis utilizes localized sea level rise projections for 2050, 2070, and 2100 based on the 2013 National Climate Assessment. Key caveats include the exclusion of rainfall-induced flooding, the use of worst-case 'Maximum of the Maximum' storm surge scenarios, and the fact that the study provides illustrative snapshots rather than a comprehensive risk assessment of all bases.
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Document type: Report
Shielded from Oversight
The report details the technical specifications, deployment history, and systemic failures of the US Ground Based Interceptor (GBI) and its associated kill vehicles. It highlights a pattern of deploying hardware and software before adequate flight testing, resulting in numerous design flaws, manufacturing errors, and failed intercept tests across multiple versions of the kill vehicle (CE-I, CE-II, and CE-II Block 1). The document also outlines future development plans for the Redesigned Kill Vehicle (RKV) and Multi-Object Kill Vehicles (MOKV), while discussing the kinematics of SM-3 interceptors as potential alternatives.
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Document type: Report
Shielded from Oversight
The report analyzes the testing history of the Ground-based Midcourse (GMD) missile defense system, highlighting a low success rate and a lack of tests against realistic ICBM-range targets, salvo modes, and multiple targets. It notes that both CE-I and CE-II interceptors were deployed before successful intercept demonstrations and compares GMD's slow testing pace and high costs to the more rigorous testing of the Aegis BMD and THAAD systems.
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Document type: Report
Shielded from Oversight
The Union of Concerned Scientists reports that the US Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system, costing over $40 billion, lacks demonstrated real-world capability because it was exempted from standard military acquisition and oversight rules. The report finds that most interceptors were fielded before successful testing and that current tests are overly simplified, leading to a system that is not on a credible path to operational utility.
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Document type: Executive summary
Shielded from Oversight
The report argues that the US Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system is in a state of disarray due to a 'schedule-driven' development process that bypassed standard DOD5000 acquisition rules. This approach led to the fielding of interceptors before successful testing, systemic design flaws like the 'track gate anomaly', and a poor test record where only a third of intercept tests have succeeded since deployment began. The authors conclude that the system cannot reliably protect the US from nuclear attack and may increase security risks by encouraging adversaries to modernize their arsenals.
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Document type: Report
Los contaminantes tóxicos del aire y la salud en la comunidad de Manchester en Houston
The document details the exposure of the Manchester community in Houston to hazardous air pollutants emitted by nearby industrial facilities, including oil refineries and chemical plants. It identifies six specific toxic substances—1,3-Butadiene, Benzene, Ethylbenzene, Styrene, Toluene, and Xylene—and describes their potential short- and long-term health effects, such as cancer and respiratory issues. The report emphasizes that this 'front-line' community, characterized by high minority and low-income populations, faces disproportionate environmental burdens and lacks the resources to hold polluters accountable.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Air Toxics and Health in the Houston Community of Manchester
The document highlights the exposure of Manchester, Houston residents—a predominantly minority and low-income community—to toxic air pollutants from nineteen industrial facilities. It details the specific health risks associated with six hazardous air pollutants regulated under the Clean Air Act and argues for a shift in the burden of proof from the community to the polluters regarding health impacts.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Toward Climate Resilience
The Union of Concerned Scientists proposes a climate resilience framework based on narrowing the 'resilience gap' through combined mitigation and adaptation efforts. The report outlines 15 principles categorized by rigorous science, equitable outcomes, and ambitious common sense to ensure adaptation is scientifically sound and socially just.
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Document type: Report
Review of Light-duty Vehicle Fuel Economy and Emissions Standards
The document outlines the environmental, economic, and public health benefits of the fuel efficiency and global warming pollution standards for light-duty vehicles covering model years 2017 to 2025. It highlights significant reductions in oil consumption, consumer cost savings, job creation, and a substantial decrease in global warming emissions by 2030.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Review of Light-duty Vehicle Fuel Economy and Emissions Standards
The document examines the impact of the 2012 EPA and NHTSA fuel economy and emissions standards for light-duty vehicles (2017–2025). It highlights a market shift toward sport utility vehicles (SUVs), which use approximately 14 percent more fuel than similarly sized cars. The author argues that the current 'footprint-based' standards are effective because they set targets based on vehicle size, encouraging efficiency across all vehicle types rather than just a few models. While these standards are projected to reduce emissions by over 600 million metric tons by 2040, the document suggests that updating them to reflect recent technological advances is necessary to meet original projections due to the rising popularity of larger vehicles.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Review of Light-duty Vehicle Fuel Economy and Emissions Standards
The document outlines several automotive technologies—including high-compression engines, cylinder deactivation, advanced transmissions, lightweight materials, and 48V stop-start systems—that allow manufacturers to surpass federal fuel economy projections for 2025.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Air Toxics and Health in the Houston Community of Manchester
The community of Manchester in Houston, Texas, faces significant public health threats due to a dense concentration of industrial facilities, including oil refineries and chemical plants. Residents, who are 98 percent minority and 65 percent low-income, are exposed to hazardous air pollutants such as benzene and 1,3-butadiene. The document highlights the disproportionate burden of pollution on low-income communities of color and calls for local officials to prioritize public health and safety in fence-line communities.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Open Letter From Legal Scholars on the Climate Science Truth and Accountability Act (SB 1161, Allen)
A group of legal scholars supports California SB 1161, which would revive certain civil claims under the Unfair Competition Law (UCL) related to climate science misinformation. The authors argue that fossil fuel companies may have misled the public about climate risks as early as the 1950s and that the bill's time-limited revival of causes of action is a reasonable way to ensure these cases are decided on their merits rather than being barred by the statute of limitations.
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Document type: Statement
Accelerating Toward Clean Energy Economy
The analysis indicates that the Clean Power Plan and the extension of the Production Tax Credit (PTC) and Investment Tax Credit (ITC) will drive significant clean energy growth and consumer savings in the US. By 2030, these policies are projected to generate 204 GW of new wind and solar capacity, resulting in $30.5 billion in net consumer savings and $127 billion in cumulative health and economic benefits from reduced emissions.
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Document type: Executive summary