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The Republic of Cyprus joined the EU on 1 May 2004 and the eurozone on 1 January 2008. Unlike other 2004 enlargement states, its primary motivations were national security and gaining leverage to resolve the Cyprus dispute rather than economic development. While the political goal of resolving the island's division remains unfulfilled, membership provided critical financial stability during the 2012-2013 sovereign debt crisis via the European Stability Mechanism. The authors argue that Cyprus's 'partial' model of integration, where the EU acquis is suspended in areas without government control, serves as a potential blueprint for future EU enlargements involving divided territories.

The document analyzes Pakistan's reactive AI strategy, which is primarily driven by the need to counter India's military advancements. It details Pakistan's efforts to acquire AI-enabled tools through partnerships with China and potential ties with Russia, specifically in the domains of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), ground robots, and active cyber defense. The paper highlights the destabilizing effect of AI on the nuclear balance in South Asia, noting that AI-driven early warning and command systems could compress decision-making time and increase the risk of accidental escalation. It concludes that while Pakistan seeks to maintain a 'credible minimum deterrence,' it faces significant financial and technical limitations in developing indigenous high-tech AI weaponry.

The report examines the rise of 'algorithmic warfare,' characterized by the fusion of AI with small satellites, robotic systems, and mobile devices. It analyzes how AI enhances the OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) and situational awareness while warning of critical vulnerabilities such as 'brittleness,' lack of explainability, and the risks of relying on private-sector partnerships. The authors argue that ethical AI deployment is not only a moral necessity but a strategic advantage.

The document analyzes global conflict trends using Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) data. It finds that while battle-related deaths from state-based conflicts decreased in 2023 compared to 2022, 2023 remains the third most violent year since 1989, driven largely by wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The report notes a record high of 59 state-based conflicts in 2023, suggesting a more complex conflict landscape where fewer countries experience a higher number of simultaneous conflicts. Non-state conflicts have stabilized at a higher level than a decade ago, with the Americas now the most affected region due to cartel violence in Mexico and Brazil. One-sided violence continues to be driven primarily by non-state actors, though thirteen governments were still responsible for such violence in 2023.

The report examines how the rivalry between the US and China in the technological domain threatens Indonesia's economic growth and national security. It highlights vulnerabilities in investment flows, market access for electronics and critical minerals, and risks related to cyber-espionage and technological interoperability. The authors argue that Indonesia's current regulatory and institutional framework is inadequate, as it fails to integrate geopolitical and security considerations into its technology strategies. To address these gaps, the report recommends investing in national tech champions, formulating domestic technological norms, and establishing a dedicated office for critical minerals, emerging technologies, and cybersecurity.

The report analyzes the relationship between the diversion of firearms—the transfer of weapons from legal to illicit realms—and illicit trafficking. It details various diversion typologies, including 'leakage' from state stocks, straw purchases, and the misuse of export documentation. Through 12 case studies spanning Europe, Africa, the Americas, and Asia, the document demonstrates how the UN Firearms Protocol's requirements for marking, record-keeping, and international judicial cooperation are critical for dismantling trafficking networks. It emphasizes that while diversion can occur domestically, it often serves as a prerequisite for cross-border trafficking, which requires a coordinated international criminal justice response to be effectively countered.

The document examines India's military integration of AI, driven by the 'intelligentized warfare' capabilities of China and the acquisition of AI-enabled systems by Pakistan. It details India's shift toward 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' (self-reliance) in producing UAVs and robotics, while maintaining a defensive strategic posture rooted in the 'dharmayuddha' (just war) philosophy. The authors highlight a tension between official policies of restraint and military calls for offensive cyber capabilities, as well as an ethical consensus on maintaining human primacy over lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS).

The document examines the shift in global politics as emerging powers in the Global South contest universalist liberal gender norms. Through case studies of Turkey, Brazil, and China, it analyzes how local political contexts—ranging from the rise of political Islam and traditional family values to state-led prioritisation of national prosperity—shape women's rights and the implementation of the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda. The authors argue that a more diverse understanding of gender norms is necessary to avoid cultural relativism while effectively improving women's security and well-being globally.

The document examines how residents of Karachi define 'middleclassness' and the factors contributing to upward social mobility. Based on a 2023 survey of 508 residents and 25 family interviews, it finds that middle-class identity is strongly associated with private education and motorbike ownership. While most current residents were born in Karachi, generational data reveals a high history of in-migration, including rural-to-urban movement and migration following the 1947 Partition. The findings suggest that becoming middle class is perceived as a difficult struggle requiring the mobilization of multiple factors, including education, hard work, and remittances from family abroad.

The document examines what it means to be and become 'middle class' in Mumbai, highlighting the importance of education, salaried employment, and assets like home ownership. It finds that while internal migration to Mumbai is a primary driver of social mobility, international migration is perceived as less essential for improving living standards. The study reveals a complex view of upward mobility that combines hard work, formal education, and social connections.

The document argues that EU readmission agreements are often ineffective because they lack incentives aligned with the national interests of partner countries. Using Nigeria as a case study, it highlights how the decoupling of visa facilitation from readmission agreements has hindered negotiations. The authors recommend that the EU shift toward a 'responsibility sharing' framework that includes legal migration channels and reintegration support rather than focusing narrowly on returns.

The document argues that the contested legal status of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and the ambiguous nature of the UN buffer zone create significant precarities for asylum-seekers. It criticizes the UNHCR's use of 'Person of Concern' certificates as an insufficient workaround for formal refugee status and accuses the Republic of Cyprus (RoC) of shirking responsibility for refugees in the buffer zone. The authors call for structural, principled solutions over case-by-case pragmatic workarounds to protect universal human rights in these contested territories.

The report argues that the 'Cyprus problem' negatively impacts the environment by preventing the collection of island-wide data, isolating the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) from international oversight and funding, and causing political considerations to overshadow urgent ecological needs. While the UN-controlled buffer zone has inadvertently preserved some endemic species, the author warns that this 'green zone by default' is increasingly threatened by illegal dumping and development. The report recommends utilizing bicommunal Technical Committees and UNDP support to create shared environmental datasets and coordinated strategies for water scarcity and wildfire management.

The document explores how residents of Metro Manila define being and becoming middle class, highlighting a diversity of markers including employment, consumption, and values. It examines the intersection of social mobility and migration, noting that Metro Manila serves as a hub for internal migrants and a transit point for international migration, with remittances and family support networks playing key roles in achieving middle-class status.

The document examines how residents of Hanoi define 'middle-income' status, identifying key markers such as owning a motorbike and air-conditioner, and emphasizing hard work and salaried employment over business ownership. It highlights that while internal migration to Hanoi is a significant driver of upward social mobility for education and employment, international migration is generally not viewed as a primary pathway to achieving middle-class status, though it remains an aspiration for children's education.

The report identifies four 'pillars' of protest—demands, strategy, composition, and organization—that influence the size of a movement and the likelihood of regime loyalty shifts. It argues that non-violent, broad-based campaigns demanding regime change are most likely to succeed and lead to democratic consolidation. However, it notes a recent decline in the success rate of such movements and a rise in anti-liberal protests. For international democracy promoters, the report recommends investing in civil society infrastructure during stable periods rather than attempting to instigate regime shifts.

The document examines the role of 'civic humanitarians'—local actors embedded in society through faith, community, or ethnic ties—within Uganda's refugee response. It argues that while Uganda's progressive policies facilitate refugee-led organisations (RLOs), the localisation agenda is hindered by stringent national registration requirements and narrow, techno-managerial definitions of accountability. The authors highlight that refugees rely heavily on sociocultural support practices (such as 'saidu' and 'ubuntu' philosophy) that remain invisible in formal humanitarian debates. To improve localisation, the brief recommends creating separate registration tracks for RLOs, developing flexible funding mechanisms, and broadening the understanding of accountability to include community-driven and relational models.

The UNHCR launched the Refugee Zakat Fund in 2019 to tap into the significant potential of Islamic social finance, specifically zakat, to address rising humanitarian needs. While the fund assisted 1.1 million people across 20 countries by 2023 and has gained endorsements from 17 Islamic institutions, it faces scrutiny regarding Sharia compliance and the legitimacy of centralized zakat collection. To maintain trust, UNHCR has implemented specific measures such as using interest-free accounts and waiving indirect support costs. The brief highlights a broader trend of UN agencies, including UNICEF and UNRWA, integrating Islamic social finance to diversify funding streams.

The document examines how the technological rivalry between the United States and China impacts Indonesia's aspirations to become a regional subsea cable hub. It highlights Indonesia's current 'underdeveloped' hedging strategy, characterized by a preference for affordable Chinese hardware and U.S. software, while lacking a comprehensive national risk mitigation plan. The authors argue that Indonesia's pragmatic, agency-led procurement often overlooks foreign policy implications and risks dependency on single powers. To address this, the brief recommends mapping stakeholders, integrating the Ministry of Foreign Affairs into procurement decisions, collaborating with ASEAN on governance frameworks, and establishing a formal foreign technology investment review mechanism.

The document argues that a prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine increases the risk of nuclear and conventional escalation, necessitating flexible, region-specific arms control mechanisms. It identifies critical risks—including the security of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, potential Russian nuclear testing, and the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus—as catalysts for urgent multilateral risk reduction. The authors suggest that provisional 'inter-bellum' frameworks, such as no-fly zones in Eastern Europe or naval limits in the Black Sea, could eventually evolve into permanent treaties following a decisive Ukrainian victory.