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The Climate Action Tracker reports that current pledges put the world on track for 2.8°C of warming by 2100, while real-world actions suggest 3°C. Despite a 75% shrinkage in the coal pipeline since 2015, coal capacity increased by 63 GW in that period, and natural gas demand continues to grow rapidly. Conversely, renewable capacity is projected to increase by 1,200 GW over the next five years, driven primarily by solar PV and onshore wind.

The NDC Update Report emphasizes the necessity of long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LTSs) to drive ambition in the 2020 NDC update cycle. Survey data indicates that while confidence in current NDC implementation remains high, over half of respondents are unclear if their governments will raise ambition in the next update, with discussions often focused on costs rather than social or environmental benefits. The report proposes eight key elements for robust LTS processes, noting that more than half of surveyed governments had not yet started the LTS process. It highlights that 13 LTSs had been submitted to the UNFCCC at the time of writing, often characterized as "living documents" with a focus on stakeholder engagement. Contributions from organizations such as the NDC Partnership, GIZ, UNDP, WRI, AFD/IDFC, LEDS-GP, and FAO underscore the need for whole-of-government scope, transparency, and sector-specific pathways—particularly in energy and agriculture—to align investments and ensure food security.

The report analyzes the potential for Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Japan, and the United States to strengthen their mitigation targets to align with the Paris Agreement's temperature goals. It evaluates these potentials by examining socioeconomic data, historical emissions, current policy projections, global least-cost pathways using marginal abatement cost curves, and 'fair share' equity principles. The analysis also considers the political feasibility of deploying available low-carbon technologies and phasing out fossil fuel subsidies.

The document outlines two methodologies—fairness-based and cost-effectiveness-based—for determining national GHG emission reductions required to meet the Paris Agreement's goals of limiting warming to well below 2°C and ideally 1.5°C. It notes that current commitments, including those of Germany and the EU, are insufficient. The analysis focuses on major emitters including Brazil, Canada, China, the EU, India, Japan, the USA, and specifically Germany, to identify gaps between current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the levels of ambition suggested by mitigation potentials or fair shares.

The document addresses the challenge of ensuring individual country contributions align with the collective goals of the Paris Agreement through the Global Stocktake (GST). It evaluates the potential and limits of the GST process and suggests specific improvements to maximize its effectiveness, including the use of a performance distributions approach and independent support from academia and civil society.

The document identifies critical knowledge gaps in the official Global Stocktake (GST) process, particularly regarding the definitions of equitable implementation, Paris-consistent financial flows, and adequate adaptation responses. It recommends that an independent Global Stocktake (iGST) focus on synthesizing existing data, fostering a common understanding of these ill-defined concepts, and providing forward-looking, country-specific recommendations to raise climate ambition.

The document argues that as countries set long-term decarbonisation targets, the use of international offsets must shift from offsetting continued emissions to supplementing rapid domestic reductions. It warns that misuse of offsets could allow developed countries to maintain 'business as usual' emissions patterns while claiming net-zero targets.

The study finds that geothermal energy is significantly more cost-effective and sustainable than coal for Kenya's electricity sector. It highlights that geothermal power has a lower Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of approximately USD 10 cents/kWh compared to USD 29.5 cents/kWh for coal. The report warns that planned coal plants in Lamu and Kitui could increase electricity costs by up to 50% due to surplus capacity and result in approximately 1,620 premature deaths by 2065 due to air pollution. Geothermal energy is also found to create three times more domestic employment per MW than coal and aligns better with Kenya's target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% below business as usual by 2030.

The report argues that renewable energy mini-grids are often the most cost-effective solution for rural electrification in Kenya compared to national grid extension. While Kenya's current strategy focuses on grid extension, the report suggests that integrating mini-grids into national planning could accelerate electrification, create local jobs, improve energy security, and reduce CO2 emissions by 0.14-0.48 MtCO2e per year.

The analysis finds that the potential supply of offset credits from the Clean Development Mechanism, Verified Carbon Standard, Gold Standard, and Climate Action Reserve is approximately 18 billion credits, exceeding anticipated CORSIA demand by more than six times. The authors argue that without robust eligibility restrictions, the scheme will fail to achieve significant additional emissions reductions because over 80 percent of the supply comes from projects likely to continue abatement regardless of credit sales.

The report argues that high perceived investor risks in South East Europe lead to inflated financing costs for renewables, making them less competitive than conventional power plants. It proposes specific de-risking measures—most notably the EU budget guarantee mechanism—that could reduce project costs by up to 20%, potentially bringing onshore wind costs down to 46 EUR/MWh in Greece and 54 EUR/MWh in Serbia.

The document introduces a qualitative assessment framework designed to guide policy makers through the phased process of decarbonising the electricity sector. It emphasizes that while the transition to variable renewable energy sources (vRES) like wind and solar presents universal technical challenges, the impact of these challenges is shaped by a country's specific geographic and socio-economic characteristics. The author argues that successful transformation requires timely planning and the embedding of technical solutions within country-specific regulatory frameworks to achieve Paris Agreement goals.

The study finds that the EU's 2050 target of 80% to 95% reduction from 1990 levels is outdated and insufficient. An 80% reduction is incompatible with the Paris Agreement's temperature limits, and even GHG neutrality by 2050 is deemed an unfair contribution given the EU's historical emissions. The report suggests the EU would need to reach zero emissions by 2030-2040 to allow other countries a fair share of the remaining carbon budget.

The report analyzes climate mitigation commitments from subnational and non-state actors, finding that while individual commitments from ten major emitting economies can reduce 2030 emissions by 1.2 to 2.0 GtCO2e, international cooperative initiatives (ICIs) offer a much larger potential reduction of 18 to 21 GtCO2e. If fully implemented, these ICIs could put the world on track to limit global warming to 2°C. The report also highlights the synergies between these climate actions and the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The document advises Energy Community Contracting Parties on integrating various climate and energy planning efforts, such as National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), NDCs, and sectoral strategies, to reduce resource burdens and ensure policy alignment.

The document argues that current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit and proposes a ten-point agenda to scale up mitigation ambition. It emphasizes the need for a whole-economy view to avoid detrimental social and economic consequences and argues that climate mitigation and sustainable development goals are synergistic rather than contradictory. The paper calls for a full transformation across all sectors to reach net zero CO2 emissions globally by 2050, requiring that all financial flows be made Paris-compatible and that countries with higher capacities support those with limited resources.

The report argues that to meet the Paris Agreement's long-term temperature goals, most countries must reach net-zero emissions by 2050 or shortly thereafter, requiring immediate sector-specific planning. It identifies five critical sectors—power, industry, transport, buildings, and agriculture, forestry and other land-use—and warns that delaying strategic choices until after 2030 risks 'carbon lock-in' and inefficient, costly infrastructure transitions. The document advocates for a multi-disciplinary approach to planning, combining scenario modelling to translate global goals into feasible policies, Political Economy Analysis (PEA) to navigate stakeholder interests and political feasibility, and a focus on transparency, finance, and governance to mobilise investment and ensure systemic implementation.

The report identifies about 50 policies from July 2018 to May 2019 in 25 countries, noting that the energy sector saw the most activity with 29 entries. While most policies aim to reduce emissions, the document highlights emissions-increasing policies in Argentina and the United States. Additionally, it notes that of the 25 countries, four have submitted long-term GHG strategies to the UNFCCC and five have developed drafts or domestic strategies.

The document applies a methodology to Canada's NDC, suggesting that since 2017, the falling costs of wind, solar PV, and batteries could enable a further reduction of the 2030 emissions target by 1 to 2 percentage points, or 4 to 9 MtCO2e.

The report identifies approximately 300 international cooperative initiatives (ICIs) under the Global Climate Action Agenda, noting that Nordic countries are highly active participants, with 62% of these initiatives involving at least one Nordic country. It argues that while these initiatives vary in scale and transparency, they are critical for bridging the estimated 32 Gigaton emissions gap by 2030 required to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The analysis highlights seven specific initiatives—including the Under2 Coalition and the New York Declaration on Forests—as high-potential areas for Nordic leadership and support, aligned with the 2019 Declaration on Nordic Carbon Neutrality.