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The document argues against the withdrawal of African states from the International Criminal Court (ICC), asserting that such a move would undermine human rights and the fight against impunity. It specifically addresses the situation in Kenya, noting that the ICC acted as a court of last resort after domestic efforts to prosecute post-election violence failed. The authors acknowledge global inconsistencies in international justice but argue that expanding ICC membership is the correct path to widening access to justice.

The analysis finds that South Africa's population is likely to be significantly higher by 2030 than the NDP 2030 forecasts, primarily due to differing assumptions regarding migration. While the NDP assumes migration rates decline toward zero, the IFs model suggests a range of 64.4 to 68.8 million people by 2030 depending on migration trends. The brief highlights that migration is the largest source of demographic uncertainty, with substantial implications for provincial service delivery, particularly in Gauteng and the Western Cape. It also notes a continuing decline in fertility rates and a recovery in life expectancy driven by the scale-up of antiretroviral therapies (ARTs), though it predicts a rising burden of non-communicable diseases by 2040.

The document analyzes state fragility in Africa as a self-reinforcing syndrome driven by poor governance, conflict, inequality, and poverty. Using the International Futures system, it forecasts that while 16 of the 26 identified fragile countries may transition toward resilience by 2050, ten are at risk of remaining in a 'fragility trap'. The authors emphasize that while Africa's overall economy is projected to grow significantly, the gap in extreme poverty between fragile and resilient states is expected to widen unless inclusive growth and improved governance are achieved.

The document evaluates South Africa's interventions in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) across sectors such as security sector reform, governance, and economic development. It finds that while South Africa possesses significant moral authority and technical expertise, its efforts have often been uncoordinated, short-term, and hampered by inadequate funding and strategic planning. The brief recommends the creation of a coherent national post-conflict strategy and the development of a specialized pool of peacebuilding experts to move beyond demand-driven, dispersed engagements.

The document argues that while South Africa was successful in peacemaking and peacekeeping in Burundi, it failed to maintain a substantive post-conflict presence after 2009, resulting in missed opportunities for development and peacebuilding. It recommends that South Africa develop a long-term, coordinated strategy for post-conflict engagement, leveraging its access to government authorities and building national skills in peacebuilding to avoid the ad hoc approach seen in Burundi.

The policy brief contends that offensive military intervention is frequently required to stop conflicts before peacekeeping can begin, noting that international bodies often fail to act promptly. It analyzes the increasing capabilities of opposing forces in Africa—including better training, equipment, and leadership—and the logistical challenges posed by vast strategic and operational distances. The author argues that South Africa, as a regional economic power, should develop an autonomous intervention capability within the SANDF, including enhanced special forces, airlift, and reconnaissance, potentially requiring a defense budget of approximately 2% of GDP, while still cooperating with SADC and the African Union.

The briefing analyzes violent clashes between the Konianké and Guerzé communities in Guinea's Forest Region, which resulted in at least 100 deaths in July 2013. It attributes the conflict to disputes over land and citizenship, exacerbated by historical political manipulation, religious differences, and the proliferation of weapons from neighboring conflicts in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Côte d’Ivoire. The author argues that these tensions could influence Guinea's national electoral politics and recommends independent judicial processes and local peacebuilding initiatives to mitigate future violence.

Following the successful 2013 presidential election of Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, Mali faces critical challenges including the resolution of security crises in the north, the implementation of the Preliminary Ouagadougou Agreement, and the reform of defence and security sectors. While the election saw high participation and legitimacy, the new administration must now navigate inclusive dialogues with armed groups, organize parliamentary elections amidst political division, and implement a €3.25 billion sustainable recovery plan to revive an economy damaged by institutional and security crises.

The report examines the threats of religious extremism and terrorism in Niger, analyzing the factors contributing to its vulnerability and resilience. It details the government's three-pillar response—military, socioeconomic, and legal—while highlighting the challenges of regional cooperation in the Sahel-Saharan region.

The report examines the 'land question' in Ghana, identifying a weak institutional base and the political manipulation of land as primary drivers of insecurity. It details how these issues lead to violent disputes, the rise of 'land guards', and economic instability. The document also addresses the impact of large-scale land grabbing by foreign corporations and the systemic marginalization of women and the poor in land access. It concludes that these problems are mirrored across other ECOWAS member states and calls for regional policy leadership and greater accountability for traditional chiefs.

The paper argues that South Africa's National Development Plan (NDP) 2030 target of 5.4% average annual GDP growth is 'very ambitious' and unlikely to be met under current trends. Using the International Futures (IFs) model, the authors find a 'Base Case' average growth of 3.4% for 2014-2030, significantly lower than the NDP target and regional peers. While the 'Highway' scenario shows that combining aggressive interventions—such as reducing corruption, curbing HIV/AIDS, and increasing foreign direct investment—could push growth above 5%, such a path requires systemic structural change. Conversely, the analysis suggests that targets for education and infrastructure are 'eminently achievable' even with lower economic growth, indicating a potential lack of integration in the NDP's sectoral planning.

The report examines the successful conclusion of Somalia's third transitional arrangement on 20 August 2012. It details the roadmap's four priority tasks—security stabilization, constitutional adoption, reconciliation, and good governance—and the role of the Technical Selection Committee (TSC) in nominating parliament members. Key success factors included international unity, clear task sequencing, and the political maturity of the outgoing leadership. However, the process faced challenges such as bribery, the marginalization of women, and perceptions of international interference. The author argues that sustaining peace requires investing in human resources, resolving constitutional ambiguities regarding sharia and federalism, and better synchronizing AU and UN operations.

The document examines Zimbabwe's transition toward the 2013 general elections following the successful March 2013 constitutional referendum. It highlights the risks of electoral violence due to the partisan nature of the security sector and the dysfunction of the coalition government. The author outlines five possible electoral outcomes and recommends a SADC-endorsed roadmap, a security sector code of conduct, and robust international monitoring to prevent a repeat of the 2008 crisis.

The report examines the challenges and mechanisms for attracting private capital to climate finance, noting that private funding is nearly three times larger than public funding but remains difficult to channel toward adaptation in developing countries. It identifies political, project-related, and financing barriers—particularly in Africa—and suggests a combination of policy reforms and financial instruments like loan guarantees and pledge funds to mitigate risk. The Green Climate Fund (GCF) is highlighted as a central vehicle for achieving the $100 billion annual target by 2020, though it must address the funding gap between mitigation and adaptation.

The briefing examines Senegal's vulnerability to religious radicalism following the crisis in Mali. It challenges the common perception that Sufi brotherhoods provide total immunity against extremism, highlighting risks such as youth unemployment, a dual education system, and the influence of Wahhabite and jihadist Salafism. The authors argue that the Senegalese government has not fully integrated the religious dimension into its security policy and recommends reforms to the educational system and increased regional intelligence cooperation.

The report examines the vulnerability of Senegal to religious radicalism and terrorism, particularly in the context of the conflict in Mali. While the majority of Senegalese citizens and traditional Sufi brotherhoods are viewed as a shield against extremism, the study identifies a growing minority of youth and 'reformist' movements influenced by Salafism and Wahhabism. These groups often express anti-Western sentiments and hostility toward traditional brotherhoods. The report highlights the risk posed by a dual educational system and the 'Islamisation of political contestation,' recommending a multidisciplinary approach to security and a national dialogue on education to mitigate the risk of radicalisation.

The document argues that the lack of a standardised police roster system hinders the African Standby Force's (ASF) ability to rapidly deploy qualified personnel for complex peacekeeping operations. It proposes a comprehensive data structure for capturing police competencies, a three-stage implementation process (design, pilot, and operationalisation), and a tiered management system involving national, regional, and continental authorities. The author suggests that an interlinked, web-based platform would allow for efficient screening and selection, though acknowledges that political concerns over data ownership may necessitate a fallback to sharing aggregated statistical data.

The August 2012 elections in Angola saw the ruling MPLA party retain power with 71 per cent of the vote, though this was a decrease from 82 per cent in 2008. The document describes the election as a 'procedural exercise in democracy' characterized by widespread irregularities, including the use of a 'parallel counting centre' and 'forced abstention' through the manipulation of voter lists. It highlights a rising tide of social unrest, specifically among youth and demobilised soldiers, and the emergence of a more consolidated opposition through UNITA and the new CASA-CE coalition. The report further details the consolidation of power by President Jose Eduardo dos Santos through constitutional amendments and the creation of a US$5 billion Sovereign Wealth Fund (FSDEA) managed by his son, while noting that the regime's failure to address poverty and corruption may lead to future instability.

The document examines the role of African states in the global nuclear security framework, specifically focusing on the transition from the Nuclear Security Summit process to the IAEA's leadership. It highlights the limited representation of African nations at summits but notes their substantive contributions through treaty ratification and regional cooperation. The brief recommends that African states develop a unified perspective for upcoming international conferences and strengthen domestic legislation to align with global safety and security standards.

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies provides analysis and recommendations for African states participating in the United Nations negotiations for the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) scheduled for March 2013. It argues that a legally binding international instrument is necessary to regulate the transfer of conventional arms, ammunition, and technology to preserve human security and prevent human suffering, particularly in Africa, which is heavily impacted by armed conflict.