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The paper argues that the World Bank's target of reducing extreme poverty to below 3% by 2030 is unrealistic for most African nations. Using a revised extreme poverty line of US$1.75 (2011 PPP), the authors propose a more achievable continental goal of reducing extreme poverty to below 15% by 2030 and below 4% by 2045. The analysis emphasizes that while pro-poor economic growth provides the most immediate impact, a combined approach including social assistance, human development, and progressive social change is necessary to address chronic poverty and structural inequalities.

The document analyzes how Kenyan voters accessed information during the 2013 elections, finding that while media is highly trusted, personal discussions with close associates are the most powerful drivers of political persuasion. It highlights the limited impact of social media and the role of televised presidential debates in forming opinions, while noting that most voters' choices are based on long-standing party identification tied to specific leaders rather than party platforms.

The February 2015 Peace & Security Council Report details the AU's efforts to manage continental security crises. Key outcomes include the authorization of a 7,500-strong Multinational Joint Task Force (MJTF) to combat Boko Haram and a new tiered funding model for the AU budget. However, the report notes significant setbacks, such as the deferral of the Commission of Inquiry report on South Sudan and deep divisions within the International Contact Group on Libya. It also highlights the high risk of election-related violence across 18 African states in 2015 and the ongoing struggle to defeat al-Shabaab in Somalia.

The document assesses the capacity of SADC to implement post-conflict reconstruction and development (PCRD), arguing that the organisation is currently constrained by a state-centric security model and structural silos. It examines South Africa's role as a regional power, noting that while South Africa has significant capacity, its efforts are often hindered by perceptions of hegemony and inconsistent diplomacy. By comparing SADC with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the paper highlights the benefits of a human-security approach and suggests that South Africa should move from bilateral to multilateral PCRD implementation via SADC and the South African Development Partnership Agency (SADPA).

The report assesses the UNAMID Police component, consisting of formed police units (FPUs), individual police officers (IPOs), and senior leadership. It highlights the mission's struggle to implement its protection of civilians (PoC) mandate due to severe obstructions by the Sudanese government, budgetary constraints, and personnel shortages. Key findings include the success of new tailored recruitment and performance management systems, but significant gaps in pre-deployment training and gender mainstreaming. The document recommends improved communication of the mission's mandate to internally displaced persons (IDPs) and enhanced training for language assistants and government police.

The document evaluates the implementation of UNSC Resolution 1540, focusing on the tools of the 1540 Committee, the role of the group of experts, and the challenges faced by developing regions, particularly Africa. It argues for a shift toward strategic, intra-governmental processes, increased engagement with the private sector and civil society, and the adoption of a 'CBRN security culture' to complement legal obligations.

The document examines the political vacuum created by the departure of Blaise Compaoré, who served as both a mediator and a source of instability in West Africa for 27 years. It analyzes his specific influence in Togo, Côte d’Ivoire, and Mali, as well as his role in negotiating the release of Western hostages from Islamist groups in the Sahel. The author suggests that while no single leader can replace Compaoré's personal networks, his exit provides an opportunity for ECOWAS to strengthen its institutional conflict resolution mechanisms.

The report analyzes the tense pre-election environment in Benin as it approaches a critical electoral cycle in 2015 and 2016. It highlights the failure to update the permanent computerized electoral list (LEPI) as a primary technical bottleneck, while noting that political calculations by various actors have contributed to the postponement of local elections. The document examines the risk of President Thomas Boni Yayi attempting to extend his term through constitutional review, though it concludes that legal barriers from the Constitutional Court and public sentiment make a third term unlikely. It also notes the decline in the credibility of Beninese civil society and recommends that ECOWAS and international partners provide technical assistance and diplomatic pressure to ensure a peaceful transition of power.

The document analyzes the roles of Zimbabwe as SADC chair and South Africa as chair of the Organ on Politics, Defence and Security Cooperation (OPDSC) for 20142015. It argues that while these roles provide opportunities for leadership, the impact is constrained by SADC's consensus-based decision-making and institutional weaknesses. Key challenges include high dependency on donor funding, political instability in Lesotho, and the influence of domestic political struggles in Zimbabwe and South Africa.

The paper applies second-generation social network analysis to map a criminal network centered on security racketeering in Cape Town's central business district. By analyzing 112 nodes and 224 interactions based on media reports from 2010 to 2013, the study identifies a highly centralized network where a small number of 'grey' agents—individuals operating across both lawful and unlawful sectors—exercise significant control. The analysis highlights that the network's operation relies more on lawful economic interactions, such as business investments and employment, than on overt violence, posing significant challenges for traditional law enforcement.

The study applies second-generation social network analysis to a court case involving 'The Americans' gang in Cape Town, identifying a network of 46 nodes and 179 interactions. It finds that the network is characterized by high levels of violence and a low level of resilience, as a small number of key actors control a majority of the interactions and information flows. The authors argue that law enforcement often has an oversimplified view of such structures by focusing on violent 'dark nodes' while overlooking the 'grey nodes' that provide economic and political support.

The paper identifies a rise in conflict events and fatalities in Africa since 2010, concentrated in five countries: Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, CAR, and Somalia. It uses the International Futures modelling system to project three scenarios to 2063: a 'Base Case' of continued moderate growth, an 'African Renaissance' of inclusive growth and stability, and 'Politics of the Belly' characterized by elite exploitation and instability. The authors argue that governance is the primary driver of stability and that while democratisation is a general trend, the transition period often increases the risk of violence.

The document examines the systemic marginalisation of police components within the African Union's (AU) security architecture, which is dominated by military perspectives. It identifies critical gaps in police-specific doctrine, training, and resourcing, while highlighting the operational difficulties of managing diverse police contingents in high-risk environments. The paper argues that for African-led PSOs to be effective, the AU must develop a distinct police identity, harmonise ranking systems, and reduce reliance on external donor funding.

The report examines the political impasse in Togo ahead of the 2015 elections, highlighting the failure to implement the 2006 Global Political Agreement. It details the dominance of the Union for the Republic (UNIR) party, the fragmentation of the opposition, and the perceived bias of electoral institutions. Additionally, it addresses underlying socio-economic tensions and the role of the international community in attempting to mediate the crisis.

The paper advocates for the use of strategic foresight and integrated policy analysis to help African governments navigate complex development trade-offs and set realistic targets. It highlights the International Futures (IFs) model as a tool for scenario analysis and evidence-based planning, using it to critique the feasibility of certain Agenda 2063 goals, such as the eradication of extreme poverty by 2030 and the 'silencing the guns' initiative by 2020. The author emphasizes that such foresight is dependent on improving the quality and availability of reliable data across the continent.

The document argues that while engaging the private sector in post-conflict settings carries reputational and political risks, it is essential for sustainable economic recovery. It suggests that SADPA should move beyond a purely militaristic or diplomatic approach to PCRD by coordinating with businesses to create jobs and stimulate growth. The author proposes six specific modalities for engagement, including risk guarantees, governance reform, and the creation of public-private dialogue platforms, while cautioning against a purely mercantilist approach that could damage South Africa's image in Africa.

The analysis finds that armed conflict in Africa generally follows a global pattern of decline when measured relative to population growth, though this was disrupted by the Cold War and has seen a recent uptick since 2010. Africa is uniquely characterized by high levels of 'non-state conflict'—violence between armed groups not involving the government—which the author attributes to weak governance. While terrorism is rising globally, the Middle East is currently experiencing faster growth than Africa. The paper also highlights that internal conflicts now dominate globally over interstate wars, and warns that climate change may increase local conflicts over resources in northern and southern Africa.

The document examines the increasing visibility of organised crime in Dakar, specifically drug trafficking, counterfeit pharmaceuticals, and cybercrime. It highlights the risk of 'criminal governance' where illicit networks provide services and authority parallel to the state, often aided by the corruption of law enforcement officials. The authors argue that Dakar's cash-intensive economy and real estate market are highly vulnerable to money laundering. To combat this, the brief recommends improving law enforcement capacity, adapting the Penal Code, and enhancing international cooperation, particularly with France and South American countries.

The document examines the precarious security environment leading up to Mozambique's 2014 elections, highlighting the need for a negotiated ceasefire and disarmament of Renamo to ensure long-term stability. It argues that while President Guebuza's commitment to the election timetable is a positive sign of democratic maturity, the risk of post-election violence remains high unless security guarantees and confidence-building measures are established.

South Africa is over-exploiting its freshwater resources, with a projected widening gap between supply and demand by 2035. The authors find that the National Water Resource Strategy 2013 (NWRS2) lacks the aggressive measures needed to close this gap, which is driven by urban migration, industrial growth, and agricultural expansion. Proposed solutions include significant reductions in municipal non-revenue water, increased wastewater reuse, and expanded groundwater extraction.