Elections in Mozambique

The document examines the precarious security environment leading up to Mozambique's 2014 elections, highlighting the need for a negotiated ceasefire and disarmament of Renamo to ensure long-term stability. It argues that while President Guebuza's commitment to the election timetable is a positive sign of democratic maturity, the risk of post-election violence remains high unless security guarantees and confidence-building measures are established.

• The October 2014 presidential election features three confirmed candidates: Filipe Nyusi of the ruling Frelimo party, Afonso Dhlakama of Renamo, and Daviz Simango of the Movimento Democrático de Moçambique (MDM).
• Tensions escalated in early 2013 when Renamo launched random armed attacks against government forces in the central provinces of Inhambane and Sofala, citing unfulfilled terms of the 1992 peace agreement.
• President Armando Guebuza has demonstrated democratic maturity by refusing to postpone the elections despite the security instability, contrasting with the actions of some other African leaders.
• A successful and peaceful election is viewed as a critical turning point for Mozambique's economic prospects, particularly following the recent discovery of large mineral deposits.
• There are significant concerns regarding post-election stability, specifically whether Renamo rebels will disarm in time and whether opposition parties will concede defeat without returning to armed conflict.
• To mitigate the risk of post-election violence, the author recommends implementing confidence-building measures (CBMs) and establishing security guarantees, potentially with the SADC secretariat acting as a guarantor.

APA

Alusala, N. (2014). Elections in Mozambique. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief67Eng.pdf

Chicago

Alusala, Nelson. Elections in Mozambique. Institute for Security Studies, 2014. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief67Eng.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Alusala |first1=Nelson |title=Elections in Mozambique |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=September 2014 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief67Eng.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{alusala2014elections, author = {Alusala, Nelson}, title = {{Elections in Mozambique}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2014}, month = sep, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief67Eng.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }