West Africa after Compaoré

The briefing examines the political vacuum created by the downfall of Burkina Faso's former president Blaise Compaoré in West Africa. Compaoré acted as both a regional peacemaker and a source of instability, playing critical roles in the political crises of Togo, Côte d’Ivoire, and Mali, as well as in Western hostage negotiations in the Sahel. The document suggests that while his personal networks are irreplaceable, his departure provides an opportunity for ECOWAS to strengthen its institutional role in conflict resolution.

• Blaise Compaoré's role in West Africa was contradictory; while external partners viewed him as a "pillar of stability" and a "peacemaker" due to his mediation in Togo, Côte d’Ivoire, and Mali, he was also accused of promoting instability in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Côte d'Ivoire.
• In Togo, Compaoré facilitated the 1993 inter-Togolese dialogue and mediated the 2005 post-election violence. His efforts led to the Global Political Agreement on 20 August 2006 and a 2010 consensus on the Independent National Electoral Commission and presidential eligibility conditions.
• Compaoré's downfall may increase political instability in Togo ahead of the 2015 elections, as it deprives President Faure Gnassingbé of a regional supporter. This occurs amid opposition demands for a two-round voting system and a limit of two five-year presidential terms.
• In Côte d’Ivoire, Compaoré is viewed polarisingly: supporters of Alassane Ouattara credit his mediation for the 2007 Ouagadougou Political Agreement and the 2010 elections, while supporters of Laurent Gbagbo accuse him of supporting the 2002 failed coup and northern rebels.
• The departure of Compaoré may influence the power struggle in Côte d’Ivoire between Guillaume Soro and Hamed Bakayoko over who will succeed President Ouattara, as Soro previously relied on Compaoré's "political and moral backing."
• In Mali, Compaoré's mediation helped restore constitutional order in April 2012 and secure a June 2013 peace agreement with northern armed groups. However, he was eventually marginalised in favour of Algeria because Malian authorities doubted his impartiality and suspected favouritism toward certain armed groups.
• Compaoré served as a key Western partner for hostage negotiations in the Sahel; his Special Adviser, Moustapha Ould Limam Chafi, helped liberate three Spanish aid workers and Canadian diplomat Robert Fowler and his assistant Louis Guay in 2009. While a loss to the West, the liberation of Serge Lazarevic via Niger and Mali shows Compaoré did not have exclusive control of these networks.
• The political vacuum left by Compaoré is unlikely to be filled by another head of state because his influence was based on personal networks built over 27 years. This creates an opportunity for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to become more assertive in conflict prevention and resolution.
• Following Compaoré's departure, Burkina Faso's transition is led by interim President Michel Kafando and Prime Minister Lieutenant-Colonel Isaac Yacouba Zida, with a focus on the 2015 elections.

APA

Diallo, O. A., Gnamke, E.-W., Maïga, I., & Ouédraogo, F. (2014). West Africa after Compaoré. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/west-africa-after-compaore

Chicago

Diallo, Ousmane Aly, Esso-Wèdeou Gnamke, Ibrahim Maïga, and Fatimata Ouédraogo. West Africa after Compaoré. Institute for Security Studies, 2014. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/west-africa-after-compaore.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Diallo |first1=Ousmane Aly |last2=Gnamke |first2=Esso-Wèdeou |last3=Maïga |first3=Ibrahim |last4=Ouédraogo |first4=Fatimata |title=West Africa after Compaoré |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=12 December 2014 |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/west-africa-after-compaore |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{diallo2014west, author = {Diallo, Ousmane Aly and Gnamke, Esso-Wèdeou and Maïga, Ibrahim and Ouédraogo, Fatimata}, title = {{West Africa after Compaoré}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2014}, month = dec, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/west-africa-after-compaore}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }