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The paper evaluates Namibia's progress toward Vision 2030 and NDP4 targets using the International Futures (IFs) model. It identifies physical capital—specifically electricity, sanitation, and transportation—as the primary constraint on economic growth. Through three scenarios (Current Path, Infrastructure Access, and Leave No Namibian Out), the author demonstrates that while heavy infrastructure investment improves health and GDP, it can detract from education spending. The analysis concludes that Namibia is unlikely to meet its aggressive GDP growth and infant mortality targets by 2030, and that deep-seated structural issues like inequality and extreme poverty will persist across all modeled paths.

Somaliland is described as a rare success story of stability and democracy in the Horn of Africa, though this progress is considered fragile. The report highlights critical weaknesses in its political system, specifically the chronic delay of presidential and parliamentary elections, and the influence of clan politics on governance. It identifies the lack of international recognition as a primary internal tension and warns of the growing influence of Salafism. Externally, the report notes ongoing border disputes with Puntland and the existential threat posed by the Somali Federal Government's refusal to accept Somaliland's independence.

The report analyzes the political landscape of Tanzania ahead of the 2015 elections, highlighting the challenge to the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party's long-term dominance. It identifies key drivers of potential instability, including the failure to implement a three-tier federal government structure, high youth unemployment, and historical electoral violence in Zanzibar. While the overall risk of widespread insecurity is deemed low, the document warns of localized violence and the risk of radicalization among marginalized youth.

The document analyzes the strategic and economic relationship between South Africa and India, noting a significant increase in bilateral trade from US$2.5 billion in 2003/04 to US$13.18 billion in 2012/13. While relations are positive, the authors identify bottlenecks such as inadequate infrastructure, visa difficulties, and a lack of self-sustainable South African business structures. It highlights the role of platforms like the India-South Africa CEO Forum and the Focus Africa Programme, while arguing that civil society should be more actively engaged to ensure sustainable development and transparency in economic diplomacy.

The document analyzes conflict data from 1960 to 2015, noting that while global fatalities from armed conflict generally decline relative to population, Africa maintains a disproportionately high conflict burden. It distinguishes between the 'capacity deficit' in sub-Saharan Africa and the 'inclusion deficit' in the MENA region as primary drivers of instability. The author argues that while violent Islamist extremism receives significant media attention, it accounts for a smaller portion of total political fatalities compared to other forms of violence, such as riots and non-state conflict.

The document examines the challenges and necessity of resolving maritime boundary disputes in Africa, highlighting how these conflicts hinder the 'Blue Economy' and regional security. It discusses the role of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the 2050 Africa’s Integrated Maritime Strategy (2050 AIMS), while recommending a preference for bilateral and regional resolution mechanisms over international courts.

The African Union's African Standby Force (ASF) is unlikely to reach full operational capability by January 2016, but the AU has successfully demonstrated its ability to conduct peace operations using diverse models. The authors argue that the AU should move away from costly exercises and instead update the ASF's doctrine to reflect current conflict trends, such as counter-terrorism and asymmetric warfare, which differ from the original 2003 conceptualization.

The report evaluates the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) and its peace and security architecture, specifically the Central African Early Warning Mechanism (MARAC) and the Central African Multinational Force (FOMAC). It finds a significant gap between the organization's ambitions and its operational reality, noting that conflict prevention is hampered by a highly centralized, state-focused structure and a narrow military approach to security. The document highlights critical regional threats, including the Boko Haram insurgency, maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea, and the instability in the Central African Republic (CAR). It concludes that ECCAS lacks a credible regional lead nation and a shared vision, remaining heavily dependent on external funding, primarily from the European Union, which undermines regional ownership of the peace and security process.

The paper argues that South Africa is currently on a 'Bafana Bafana Redux' trajectory characterized by modest growth and structural unemployment due to an electricity supply crisis and poor governance. While a more positive 'Mandela Magic Lite' scenario is possible through improved leadership and policy coherence, the author suggests the country is likely to remain in a middle-income trap in the near term. The analysis highlights a critical generational shift as 'born-free' voters increase in number, potentially reducing the ANC's dominance and pushing the country toward a more competitive multiparty democracy.

The report finds that while religious radicalism in Côte d’Ivoire has not reached the scale seen elsewhere in West Africa, the country remains vulnerable due to political instability, regulatory gaps, and socio-economic marginalisation. It details how Pentecostalist 'prophets' influenced the hardline posture of former President Laurent Gbagbo during the 2010-11 crisis and notes the presence of Wahhabi Islam. Additionally, it examines the Lebanese diaspora, noting that while most view Hezbollah as a 'national resistance movement' and provide financial support, there is currently no direct threat to Ivorian national security from this community.

The report analyzes how the internal conflict in South Sudan has become an arena for regional power struggles. It details the competing interests of Uganda and Sudan, the security concerns of Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the economic and hydropolitical motivations of Kenya and Egypt. The author argues that these external interventions, particularly the military involvement of Uganda and the proxy interests of Sudan, have regionalized the crisis and undermined the mediation efforts of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

The report outlines the priorities for the June 2015 AU summit, noting that the official theme of women's empowerment is likely to be overshadowed by urgent crises. Key concerns include the high death toll of African migrants crossing the Mediterranean from Libya, xenophobic violence in South Africa, and the instability in Burundi caused by President Pierre Nkurunziza's third-term bid. It also examines the AU's role in mediating conflicts in South Sudan and Libya, the challenges of establishing an African Standby Force, and the broader struggle for continental economic and political integration.

The report identifies three primary categories of insecurity in Kenya: armed civilian groups, state-led violence, and jihadist activities. While al-Shabaab has increased its frequency and deadliness of attacks since the 2011 deployment of troops to Somalia, the report finds that non-al-Shabaab armed groups and state actions have historically caused more fatalities. The analysis highlights systemic drivers of instability, including the legacy of 'imperial presidents', pervasive marginalisation—particularly regarding land distribution at the coast and in the Rift Valley—and the politicisation of security for electoral gain. It also notes the influence of the regional war economy and porous borders with Somalia, Ethiopia, and Uganda.

The document is a comprehensive manual for South African MPs to navigate the national budget cycle, understand the legal frameworks like the PFMA, and apply quantitative tools to assess budget priority, progress, equity, and adequacy.

The document examines the diverse range of 'Sahel strategies' produced by multilateral actors, noting a general consensus on objectives—security, development, governance, and education—but significant variations in geographical scope and implementation capacity. It highlights that while some organisations possess substantial internal funding, others rely on external contributions, creating a risk that more powerful actors may dominate the region. The brief emphasizes the need for detailed action plans and transparent monitoring and evaluation mechanisms to avoid redundancy and ensure that interventions meet the needs of populations in core countries like Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger.

The report analyzes the power dynamics of Africa's five most influential states, using the Hillebrand-Herman-Moyer Index (HHMI) to forecast capabilities. It finds that while Nigeria and Ethiopia are expected to increase their power capabilities, Algeria, Egypt, and South Africa are likely to stagnate or decline. The authors distinguish between raw capabilities and 'power projection,' noting that Ethiopia and South Africa currently punch above their weight, while Nigeria and Algeria punch below theirs. The analysis emphasizes that governance deficits and domestic instability often hinder the translation of material capabilities into actual regional or global influence.

The report analyzes the relapse into violence in South Sudan following its 2011 independence, identifying the root causes as political power struggles and structural governance failures rather than purely ethnic conflict. It argues that the leadership of both President Salva Kiir and Riek Machar has failed to provide a strategic vision, resulting in a state characterized by corruption, patronage, and a lack of institutional capacity. The author evaluates three future scenarios: a transitional government of national unity, a neutral interim government, and the maintenance of the status quo. The report concludes that a neutral interim government is the most viable path to implement the systemic reforms necessary to move beyond short-term political fixes and address the country's legacy of injustice.

The briefing examines the precarious state of elections in West Africa in 2015, highlighting how insurgency in Nigeria, constitutional disputes in Togo, electoral list controversies in Benin, fragile security in Côte d’Ivoire, funding gaps in Burkina Faso, and the Ebola crisis in Guinea threaten the legitimacy and stability of the democratic process.

The paper critiques the 'liberal peace paradigm' in Africa, suggesting that external peacebuilding often reinforces autocratic governance by focusing on state-building and technical capacity rather than addressing systemic inequality and patronage networks. It argues that current conflicts are driven by the collective denial of individual rights to maintain power configurations, and that peacebuilding must shift toward a rights-based approach to be effective.

The document analyzes the 2013 Kenyan general elections, focusing on the performance of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). While a majority of voters viewed the elections as free and fair, trust in the IEBC was divided, with 49% of respondents stating they did not trust the body. The report highlights a gap between direct experiences of electoral malpractice—which were reported as low—and broader perceptions of unfairness, often shaped by ethnic and party affiliations. It recommends that the IEBC undertake a public audit of the 2013 elections and expand voter registration for marginalized groups.