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The report analyzes mixed migration in East Africa and the Horn, identifying a complex interplay of political instability, state fragility, poverty, and climate change as primary drivers. It highlights the challenges of protracted refugee situations, particularly the restrictive nature of encampment policies, and contrasts the progressive refugee framework in Uganda with more restrictive regimes in neighboring states. The document argues for a shift from dependency to self-reliance, the harmonization of regional and international laws, and the integration of climate adaptation into migration policies to achieve durable solutions.

The report examines the challenges in operationalizing the AU Peace Fund, specifically disagreements over contribution scales among member states. It warns against the increasing use of private military and security companies (PMSCs) like the Wagner Group in Africa, citing human rights risks. Additionally, it advocates for a revamp of the AU's PCRD approach to better address post-authoritarian transitions and the role of women in peacebuilding, using The Gambia as a model for small, expert-led deployments.

The document examines the role of foreign interventions in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province, highlighting the use of private military companies like the Wagner Group and Dyck Advisory Group, as well as the deployment of Rwandan and SADC (SAMIM) troops. It argues that while foreign forces have achieved rapid tactical successes, such as recapturing Mocímboa da Praia and consolidating control in Palma, these interventions often lack transparency and parliamentary oversight. The author emphasizes that military action alone cannot end the insurgency, recommending a comprehensive approach including deradicalization, inter-religious dialogue, and socio-economic development in the north.

The document investigates whether Russia exerts significant influence over African states in the UN Security Council (UNSC) by analyzing voting patterns between 2014 and 2020. It argues that Russia's influence over the A3 is often exaggerated, as statistical evidence shows that African member states remain more aligned with the P3 (US, UK, and France) and are largely independent of Russian vetoes and abstentions. While the A3 have increasingly sought to present unified positions on African peace and security issues, their voting behavior on non-African files shows a declining coincidence with Russian positions over time.

The document examines the failure of South Sudan to unify its armed groups into a single national force, noting that a militarised political culture and disputes within the opposition party—specifically involving Vice President Riek Machar—have stalled security sector reforms. It highlights that the mechanisms established under the 2018 Revitalised Agreement for the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) remain non-functional three years later, with troops deserting cantonment camps due to poor conditions. The author concludes that peace depends on the political commitment of leaders to the R-ARCSS and the full operationalization of the Joint Military Ceasefire Commission and Area Joint Military Ceasefire Committees.

The report examines gender inequality in the African maritime sector, highlighting that current frameworks often equate gender equality solely with women's inclusion. It advocates for an intersectional analysis—considering race, age, and class—to address the systemic exclusion of youth and other marginalised groups. The document reviews African Union maritime instruments, finds a lack of implementation and data, and provides examples of gender-sensitive initiatives in fisheries and coastal management.

The report assesses the development prospects of the Horn of Africa, highlighting how governance failure, insecurity, and climate-driven food instability hinder progress. It uses the International Futures platform to project that without intervention, no country in the region will eliminate extreme poverty by 2030. The analysis identifies a critical 'youth bulge' and severe infrastructure deficits in energy, transport, and water. To counter these trends, the authors propose an 'Integrated Development Push' scenario combining improved governance, agricultural modernisation, and investments in human capital and basic infrastructure to boost regional GDP and reduce poverty by 2040.

The report examines the political shift in the DRC following President Felix Tshisekedi's creation of the 'sacred union' coalition, which granted him a parliamentary majority. While this shift provides an opportunity for electoral reform and improved security in the east, the document highlights significant tensions over the content of these reforms, the independence of the electoral commission (CENI), and whether a proposed population census is a genuine development need or a strategy to delay the 2023 elections.

The report highlights the critical role of youth-led organisations, particularly the YoNeLCR, in fostering resilience and peacebuilding in communities affected by the Boko Haram insurgency in Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria. It finds that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly hindered these efforts by limiting face-to-face community interaction and reducing donor funding, with some programme implementation dropping to less than 20% of usual levels. The document argues against the narrative of youth as merely victims or perpetrators, showcasing their roles as peace messengers, ICT innovators, and CSO leaders. It recommends that the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) and African Union (AU) create formal plans to integrate youth-led organisations into regional stabilisation strategies.

The report finds that 41 of 54 African UN member states have subscribed to the HCoC, with the highest participation in ECOWAS (93%) and the lowest in SADC (56%). While ballistic missile threats within Africa are generally low—with only Algeria and Egypt maintaining active programmes—the report highlights the growing importance of the HCoC as African states expand their civilian space agencies and the AU aims to establish an African Space Agency by 2023. Key challenges include the exclusion of cruise missiles from the HCoC scope, administrative burdens for resource-constrained states, and a lack of institutional memory. The authors argue that the HCoC supports a 'nexus between security and development' by facilitating peaceful space exploration and improving a state's non-proliferation credentials for technology exports.

The 2018 peace agreement and subsequent trilateral alliance between Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia have resolved historical conflicts but introduced new instabilities. The alliance has exacerbated internal tensions in Ethiopia and Somalia, specifically fueling the conflict in Tigray and tensions in Jubaland. Furthermore, the exclusive nature of this bloc has created distrust among other regional actors like Kenya and Djibouti and threatens to undermine the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) by duplicating its integration efforts.

The report examines the crisis of missing persons in Africa, documenting nearly 44,000 cases through the ICRC as of 2020. It identifies armed conflict, other situations of violence, and migration as primary drivers, noting that men and children are disproportionately affected. Families face severe psychosocial trauma, economic hardship, and legal hurdles due to a lack of domestic frameworks for declaring absence. The document advocates for the establishment of national information bureaus, improved medico-legal capacity for body identification, and the integration of missing persons into transitional justice processes.

The Ethiopian Reconciliation Commission (ERC), established in 2019, faces significant operational and political hurdles that hinder its ability to implement substantive reconciliation activities. The report identifies a lack of clarity regarding the Commission's material and temporal mandates, an oversized and technically under-qualified membership, and a lack of independence and public trust. It recommends that the Ethiopian government revise the ERC's founding proclamation to specify its focus on gross human rights violations and recurrent conflicts, restructure the Commission to be leaner and more expert-led, and empower it to recommend reparations and conditional amnesties. Furthermore, the report emphasizes that the ERC's success depends on a conducive political environment fostered by an inclusive national dialogue.

The report argues that the Central African Republic remains trapped in a cycle of violence despite numerous peace agreements, most recently the 2019 Political Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation. It finds that the 2019 agreement is untenable because key provisions, such as the creation of mixed special security units (MSSUs) and an inclusive government, have failed to deter armed groups from continuing violence and controlling territory. The author highlights a 'war economy' where armed groups and some government officials benefit from instability and the illicit exploitation of resources. Furthermore, the report suggests that heavy reliance on international humanitarian aid has inadvertently reduced state responsibility and created local resentment. It recommends a comprehensive plan involving the African Union, ECCAS, and the UN that focuses on rebuilding the economic fabric, securing borders through regional cooperation with Chad, Sudan, and South Sudan, and establishing time-bound objectives for self-reliance.

The report finds that women associated with katiba Macina and Boko Haram provide strategic advantages through recruitment, logistics, and operational support. While association is often driven by marital ties, coercion, or the need for protection, the roles vary by group: Boko Haram utilizes women in combat and suicide missions, whereas katiba Macina relies more on women for community implantation and logistical supply, despite official denials of female combatant roles.

The report examines three community-based organisations (CBOs) in South Africa—Seven Passes Initiative, Net vir Pret, and Hantam Community Education Trust—to identify common elements for sustainable violence prevention. It argues that successful interventions must be aligned with local culture, prioritize the building of social capital, and manage the tension between immediate service delivery and long-term community transformation. The findings highlight that while these CBOs have fostered significant 'intangible' gains like trust and hope, they often operate in the absence of consistent government support and face challenges in overcoming deep-seated racial divisions.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) faces a 'paradox of plenty,' where immense natural resources coexist with extreme poverty and poor human development indicators. On its current trajectory, the DRC is projected to remain a low-income country with stagnant per capita income and high poverty rates through 2050. Key constraints include endemic corruption, a massive infrastructure deficit in electricity and transport, and a high fertility rate that hinders the demographic dividend. The report models several intervention scenarios, finding that while agricultural improvements offer short-term poverty relief, long-term prosperity depends on structural economic transformation and improved governance. A combined comprehensive scenario suggests that concerted action across governance, infrastructure, human capital, and agriculture could reduce the extreme poverty rate to 9.6% by 2050.

The report examines the Combined Exclusive Maritime Zone for Africa (CEMZA), a proposed 'maritime space without barriers' intended to enhance geostrategic, economic, and security benefits across the African Maritime Domain. While the author argues that CEMZA is compatible with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) if treated as a framework for cooperative governance rather than a replacement for national sovereignty, significant hurdles remain. These include the fact that less than half of Africa's coastal states have fully utilised UNCLOS to maximise their maritime zones, the existence of unresolved territorial and boundary disputes, and a historical gap between African Union norm-setting and actual treaty implementation. The report suggests that CEMZA should focus on joint enforcement jurisdiction and resource management, drawing on successful bilateral delimitation and joint-development examples from the continent.

The report examines the tension between Ethiopian nationalists and ethno-nationalists, noting that while most agree on federalism, they disagree on its purpose. It analyzes three primary constitutional frameworks—consociationalism, centripetalism, and integration—and proposes five hybrid models to balance inclusion, moderation, and national cohesion. The author concludes that no single design is sufficient and recommends a negotiated blend of these mechanisms to ensure stability and protect individual and minority rights.

The document argues that while Africa views migration as a demographic and development issue, the European Union has increasingly adopted a securitised approach. It identifies four key entry points for strengthening the Africa-EU partnership: remittances, legal labour migration pathways, international protection, and voluntary returns and readmissions.