Search Climate Insights Directory

Kenya faces a significant economic burden from fossil fuel imports and subsidies despite having a nearly 90 percent renewable electricity grid. The report argues that transitioning away from fossil fuels is an economic imperative, as revenues from potential oil and coal projects are insufficient to address the national debt. It proposes a three-step pathway: immediate integration of phase-out plans, short-to-medium term divestment and investment in high-growth sectors (renewable energy, e-mobility, climate-smart agriculture, green manufacturing, and the digital economy), and long-term decarbonisation of hard-to-abate sectors. The document also highlights the risks of stranded assets and 'debt trap diplomacy' and recommends joining a Fossil Fuel Treaty to unlock international finance and technical support.

The report argues that a just energy transition in Africa requires the concurrent development of non-fossil fuel revenue sources and employment to avoid destabilising public finances. Focusing on Angola, Senegal, and Tanzania, it identifies alternative sectors such as renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, mining of critical minerals, and tourism. It recommends the adoption of Just Transition Investment Plans (JTIPs), the implementation of 'sunset policies' to end new fossil fuel licensing, and the use of fossil revenues as a temporary financing mechanism for green industrialisation. The report specifically advocates for strict conditions on any remaining gas use, including a ban on export-oriented LNG and a requirement to ringfence 50% of revenues for renewable energy.

Nigeria's economy is heavily reliant on oil, which accounts for roughly 50% of the national budget and over 90% of foreign exchange earnings. This dependency has led to 'Dutch Disease', severe environmental degradation in the Niger Delta, and fiscal fragility due to oil price volatility. With global oil demand projected to peak by 2030, the report argues for an urgent transition. It recommends diversifying into solar and hydro power, agro-processing, green manufacturing, and the digital economy. Key policy proposals include establishing a National Economic Diversification Master Plan, redirecting fossil fuel subsidy savings toward green investment, and joining a Fossil Fuel Treaty to secure transition finance and debt resolution.

The report argues that reliance on fossil fuels creates unstable government revenues, locks countries into outdated infrastructure, and exposes them to stranded asset risks as global energy systems shift. It categorizes African economies into export-dominant, import-dependent, and dual-role types, noting that no single transition pathway fits all. To mitigate these risks, the document advocates for diversification into manufacturing, agro-processing, digital services, and the domestic processing of transition minerals. It outlines a phased transition timeline from 2026 to beyond 2045, emphasizing that domestic governance reforms must be supported by international cooperation to reduce the 'African premium' on borrowing costs and improve technology access.

A coalition of ecumenical, interfaith, and eco-spiritual organizations from the Global South calls for a Fossil Fuel Treaty to address the climate crisis. The coalition argues that the burning of coal, oil, and gas is the primary driver of climate change and demands an immediate end to new fossil fuel projects, the cancellation of debts for the Global South, and a transition centered on social justice and the rights of indigenous peoples and affected communities.

The Tassiriki Call, adopted in April 2026, outlines a vision for a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific based on 100% renewable energy and the 1.5°C temperature limit. It advocates for a global Fossil Fuel Treaty, scaled-up grant-based finance, and the creation of an Inter-Governmental Taskforce for a Just Transition to a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific. The statement emphasizes the need for a managed decline of fossil fuel production and warns against the use of carbon capture and geoengineering to justify continued production.

The document outlines three distinct 'tracks' for a just transition from fossil fuels. The UNFCCC and Paris Agreement provide a universal framework for emissions reduction but lack explicit obligations on fossil fuel production due to their consensus-based structure. The COP30 Presidency Roadmap, led by Brazil, serves as a non-binding, non-negotiated forum to facilitate political dialogue and identify barriers to transition. The proposed Fossil Fuel Treaty seeks to fill the governance gap by establishing binding, supply-side commitments through a coalition of high-ambition states, focusing on ending new project expansion, implementing a science-based phase-out, and providing just transition finance.

The report analyzes the limitations of the UNFCCC's consensus-based model and the non-binding nature of Brazil's COP30 Roadmap, arguing for a binding Fossil Fuel Treaty to regulate supply and ensure a just transition.

The briefing compares three pathways for a just transition from fossil fuels. It notes that while the UNFCCC provides a universal framework for emissions, it lacks explicit obligations for fossil fuel production. Brazil's COP30 'Roadmap' serves as a non-binding political dialogue to identify transition barriers. The proposed Fossil Fuel Treaty aims to fill governance gaps through binding commitments to end new project expansion, implement science-based phase-outs, and provide financial support for affected communities.

The report analyzes how high debt-service obligations and fossil fuel reliance create a structural trap for Global South nations, where fiscal pressures force governments to prioritize short-term liquidity and fossil fuel extraction over long-term renewable energy transitions. Through case studies of Colombia, Egypt, Guyana, Jordan, and Sri Lanka, it demonstrates that this nexus is systemic, often reinforced by the conditionalities of International Financial Institutions (IFIs) and the interests of multinational corporations. The document advocates for comprehensive debt cancellation, the end of fossil fuel finance, and a global transition framework based on 'extraction equity' to dismantle these structural barriers.

The Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative is calling for countries to participate in discussions to design a binding legal instrument for a global just transition from coal, oil, and gas. The proposed treaty is based on three pillars: resourcing and cooperation for a just transition, ending new fossil fuel projects, and an equitable phase-out of existing projects aligned with the 1.5°C goal. Joining the bloc creates no immediate legal or financial obligations for participating nations, but allows them to shape the treaty's form, scope, and timeliness. The initiative aims to establish a transition finance support framework to facilitate debt resolution, renewable energy investment, and economic diversification. Participating countries are asked to affirm support, appoint political and technical focal points, work collectively on the treaty mandate, use diplomatic channels to recruit other states, and support the adoption of a negotiating mandate.

The Kuala Lumpur Declaration demands that developed countries fulfill their climate debt through grant-based finance, including an estimated USD 5.1–6.8 trillion by 2030. It advocates for a global Fossil Fuel Treaty, the rejection of 'false solutions' like carbon removal and nuclear power, and the dismantling of restrictive intellectual property regimes to accelerate technology transfer. The declaration further calls for tripling adaptation finance by 2035 and scaling the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage to hundreds of billions of dollars annually.

Caribbean civil society representatives call for a just energy transition characterized by increased renewable energy affordability, infrastructure development, and workforce upskilling. They advocate for the reform of the international financial architecture to provide grants and loans suitable for small islands, the establishment of a Just Transition Fund, and the adoption of a Fossil Fuel Treaty to ensure a binding phase-out timeline and inclusive decision-making. The group urges the creation of a month-to-month Monitoring and Evaluation Mechanism to track the implementation of outcomes from the upcoming Santa Marta Conference.

The report examines how Africa is trapped in a cycle of debt and fossil fuel dependency, which disproportionately harms women and girls. It argues that the global financial architecture forces African nations into austerity and resource extraction, leading to 'petro-masculinity' and systemic gender-based violence. The authors advocate for a 'feminist decolonial green economy' and a Fossil Fuel Treaty to enable a just transition through debt cancellation and redistributive finance.

The document examines the 'climate-debt trap' facing low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where escalating external debt—reaching nearly US$6.5 trillion in 2023—crowds out climate investment. It analyzes existing financial mechanisms such as Climate Resilient Debt Clauses (CRDCs), Catastrophe (CAT) bonds, and debt swaps, while critiquing the G20 Common Framework for its inadequacy. The authors advocate for the cancellation of 'odious debt' linked to fossil fuel projects and propose that a Fossil Fuel Treaty could establish a Debt Resolution Facility to help member nations renegotiate debts in exchange for phasing out fossil fuels.

The report argues that Australia is a 'fossil fuel behemoth' whose exported emissions are projected to be 3.3 times larger than its domestic emissions within five years. It highlights that despite IEA warnings against new developments, Australia has approved 30 new coal and gas projects since 2021. The document asserts that a conservative selection of planned projects could consume 6.2% of the remaining global 1.5°C carbon budget. It further criticizes the Australian Safeguard Mechanism as insufficient because it does not manage exported emissions or prevent new project approvals. Finally, it contrasts Australia's fossil fuel expansion with its public commitments to Pacific nations and its bid to co-host COP31.

The document outlines how a proposed Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty would fill a regulatory void by focusing on the supply side of fossil fuels, which is not explicitly addressed in the Paris Agreement or UNFCCC. It proposes a 'coalition of the willing' approach to set high ambition standards, using majority decision-making to avoid the consensus-based deadlocks of the UNFCCC. The treaty aims to end new fossil fuel expansion, phase out existing projects in line with a 1.5°C limit, and provide financial and technical support for a just transition for dependent communities and workers.

The document proposes a new binding legal instrument, the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, to accelerate the phase-out of coal, oil, and gas. It argues that while the Paris Agreement and UNFCCC provide a general framework for climate action, they lack specific mechanisms to regulate the supply side of fossil fuels. The proposed treaty would focus on three pillars: ending new fossil fuel projects, phasing out existing infrastructure aligned with a 1.5 °C limit, and ensuring a just transition for dependent communities. Unlike the consensus-based decision-making of the UNFCCC, the treaty would employ a 'Coalition of the Willing' approach and majority voting to prevent a small number of states from blocking ambitious action.

The document details the severe health impacts of the fossil fuel lifecycle, emphasizing that air pollution linked to fossil fuels causes over 80% of pollution-related deaths. It highlights the disproportionate burden on vulnerable groups—including children, women, the elderly, and racialized communities—and advocates for a managed phase-out of oil, gas, and coal to save millions of lives and reduce healthcare costs. The brief provides case studies from Argentina, India, the USA, and China to illustrate these harms and the benefits of decommissioning coal plants. It concludes with specific policy recommendations for city and national governments to transition toward renewable energy and protect public health.

The report highlights a stark contrast between the $7 trillion in annual global fossil fuel subsidies and the limited funding for climate action. It proposes a $150 per tonne of CO2e levy on international shipping as a landmark mechanism to make polluters pay and fund a just energy transition. While supported by over 50 countries representing 66% of the global fleet, the levy is opposed by BRICS and Petro-States, who account for 68% of fossil fuel subsidies. The author contends that such a levy is legally viable and essential to keep global warming below 1.5°C.