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Fact Sheet: TotalEnergies, Shell, and PetroSA’s Proposed Offshore Oil and Gas Exploration Drilling in the Western Cape
The document outlines a proposal by TotalEnergies, Shell, and PetroSA to drill up to five exploration wells in Block 5/6/7 off the coast of the Western Cape, South Africa. It argues that the project is unnecessary for energy security, contradicts South Africa's climate commitments to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and poses significant risks to marine biodiversity and local industries like fishing and tourism. The text also highlights the poor environmental and ethical track records of TotalEnergies and Shell in other African nations.
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Document type: Fact sheet
REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL HANDBOOK FOR ENVIRONMENTAL AND LAND RIGHTS DEFENDERS
The handbook provides a comprehensive guide for African environmental and land rights defenders (ELRDs), detailing the threats they face—including SLAPP suits and gender-based violence—and the legal avenues available for redress. It outlines the roles of the African Commission and African Court on Human and Peoples' Rights, as well as sub-regional courts like the ECOWAS Community Court of Justice. The document emphasizes the vulnerability of women, youth, and Indigenous communities, and provides a directory of emergency funds and support organizations.
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Document type: Guide
Private Equity in Education: How Wall Street Profits from a Public Good
The report examines how private equity firms profit from the U.S. education market, which was estimated at $1.1 trillion in 2020. It details the consolidation of curriculum and testing services by firms like Veritas Capital, the rise of outsourced staffing through companies like Education Solutions Services, and the risks associated with student data management by firms such as Vista Equity Partners. The document also analyzes the negative outcomes associated with private equity-owned for-profit colleges, charter schools, and early childhood education centers, arguing that a profit-driven model often conflicts with student interests and public good.
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Document type: Report
Samfunnsgeografenes forskningsmetoder
The text outlines the methodological toolkit of human geographers, distinguishing between quantitative and qualitative approaches. It explains the use of text analysis (from social media to archives), quantitative data for causal inference and pattern recognition, GIS for spatial analysis, and qualitative tools such as semi-structured interviews and focus groups. Additionally, it covers the role of visual data (remote sensing and photography) and the importance of field presence through ethnography and observation.
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Document type: Report
The African Union and coercive diplomacy: The case of Burundi
The document examines the African Union's (AU) unprecedented attempt to use military compellence against the government of Burundi in December 2015. After diplomatic efforts and targeted sanctions failed to stop violence against civilians, the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) issued an ultimatum threatening a non-consensual military intervention under Article 4(h) of the AU Constitutive Act. The authors argue that this threat failed to materialise due to the Burundian government's strategic use of its status as a troop-contributing country, a lack of unity among AU member states, and a regional culture of autocracy where neighbouring leaders were reluctant to challenge the extension of presidential term limits.
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Document type: Research paper
Blocking Resolution: How External States can Prolong Civil Wars
The research argues that external states often intervene in civil wars to pursue objectives separate from those of internal combatants, which makes conflicts harder to resolve. Using Cox regressions on data from 1945 to 2004, the author finds that 'independent interventions' significantly increase war duration compared to 'non-independent' interventions. This is attributed to the introduction of additional demands that shrink the bargaining range, the difficulty of updating beliefs in multi-party conflicts, and the lower costs of fighting for external states compared to domestic actors.
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Document type: Research paper
Breaking the Conflict Trap
The report argues that civil war is 'development in reverse,' creating a 'conflict trap' where poverty and institutional failure increase the risk of war, and war further degrades development. It identifies three rings of adverse effects: internal civilian suffering, regional spillovers (such as arms races and disease), and global costs (including drug trafficking and terrorism). The authors find that civil war is increasingly concentrated in 'marginalized' low-income countries and those in the conflict trap. To combat this, the report proposes a policy package including improved aid timing, transparent natural resource governance, and coordinated military-development sequencing in postconflict decades.
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Document type: Report
Explaining External Support for Insurgent Groups
The research examines the determinants of external state support for rebel groups using a new dataset of 403 organizations. It argues that support is not merely a function of the civil war's general characteristics but depends on the specific attributes of the rebel group and the international relations of the target state. The findings indicate that moderately strong groups with transnational constituencies are most likely to receive aid, particularly when the target state is involved in an international rivalry or receives its own external support. Conversely, very strong or very weak groups, and those in democratic states, are less likely to be supported.
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Document type: Research paper
Fighting at Home, Fighting Abroad: How Civil Wars Lead to International Disputes
The research demonstrates that states experiencing civil wars are significantly more likely to be involved in militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). Using data from 1946 to 2001, the authors find that this 'civil peace' effect is comparable in magnitude to the 'democratic peace' effect. Analysis of over 400 MIDs reveals that the increased risk is driven by states attempting to influence the outcome of civil wars through direct intervention, externalization (such as cross-border counter-insurgency), and unintended spillovers, rather than by opportunistic attacks on weakened states or diversionary wars to consolidate domestic power.
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Document type: Research paper
Technologie humanitaire : pour un agenda de recherches critiques
The paper argues that while digital technologies offer opportunities for efficiency in crisis response, they are not neutral and can compromise fundamental humanitarian principles. It identifies key analytical prisms—humanitarian space, public-private partnerships, resource distribution (e.g., digital food/cash), human relations, and data-driven vulnerabilities—to guide future academic inquiry into the 'technological turn' of humanitarian action.
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Document type: Research paper
Food price increase and urban unrest: The role of societal organizations
The study argues that while rising food prices create economic grievances, these only translate into urban unrest if societal organizations—such as civil society organizations (CSOs) and political parties—are present to provide mobilization structures and frame grievances. Using data from 41 African countries, the author finds that state repression of these organizations generally decreases the probability of unrest. Interestingly, the highest risk of unrest occurs in moderately repressive regimes that still allow some organizational activity, rather than in completely open societies, where citizens may prefer voting over protesting or where organizations provide alternative coping mechanisms.
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Document type: Research paper
URBANIZATION AND POLITICAL CHANGE IN AFRICA
The authors contend that African urbanization is a demographic megatrend that reshapes politics in diverse, context-specific ways. They reject a uniform 'urban effect,' proposing instead that political changes—such as shifts in citizen preferences, elite incentives, and forms of mobilization—are the direct result of territorially-situated power struggles and the specific social relations produced within built environments. The paper examines six domains: citizen preferences, elite interests, political mobilization, gender roles, civil society, and contentious collective action, highlighting how these are mediated by the unique histories and physical characteristics of different urban places.
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Document type: Research paper
Humanitarian technology: a critical research agenda
The authors argue that while digital technologies offer opportunities for efficiency in crisis response, they are not neutral and can compromise core humanitarian principles. The paper identifies five analytical prisms for future research: the politics of humanitarian space, the rise of public-private partnerships, new methods of aid distribution (such as e-transfers), the reorganization of relationships between aid providers and recipients, and the emergence of new data-driven vulnerabilities. It concludes that the 'do no harm' imperative requires a more reflective approach to technology to ensure that digital divides do not marginalize the most vulnerable and that data collection does not create new security risks.
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Document type: Research paper
Inequality and political violence: A review of the literature
The author examines the 'quantitative-qualitative mismatch' in conflict studies, where large-N statistical analyses often find no link between income inequality and violence, while case studies suggest a strong connection. The paper posits that political violence is a group phenomenon and therefore driven by horizontal inequalities (HIs)—systematic disparities between ethnic, religious, or regional groups—rather than vertical inequalities (VI) between individuals. The author proposes a theoretical framework where HIs create both motives (grievances) and opportunities (resources and cohesion) for mobilization. The review concludes that while measuring HIs is challenging, evidence from survey-based data and disaggregated studies supports the link between HIs and various forms of political violence, including civil war and urban disorder.
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Document type: Research paper
Justice during armed conflict: A new dataset on government and rebel strategies
The authors present the During-Conflict Justice (DCJ) dataset, which catalogues 2,205 justice processes across 204 internal armed conflicts in 108 countries between 1946 and 2011. The research identifies that DCJ is a common tool, appearing in over 60% of conflicts since WWII, with governments being the primary adopters (70.4%). The study finds that democratic governments are more likely to use DCJ, particularly trials, truth commissions, and reparations, compared to autocracies. Rebel groups tend to use DCJ more frequently when fighting democracies and as their own relative military strength increases. Analysis suggests that government-initiated DCJ is correlated with a reduction in battle deaths in the following year and a higher likelihood of the conflict ending in a negotiated settlement rather than a military victory.
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Document type: Research paper
‘Mtwara Will Be the New Dubai’: Dashed Expectations, Grievances and Civil Unrest in Tanzania
The research examines the link between horizontal inequalities and civil unrest in the Mtwara and Lindi regions of Tanzania. While these regions have faced long-term objective economic marginalization, the authors find that this structural inequality alone did not trigger conflict. Instead, the discovery of natural gas and subsequent government decisions—specifically the decision to pipe gas to Dar es Salaam instead of developing local industry—created frustrated expectations and perceptions of unfair treatment. Using survey data from 804 respondents and 35 interviews, the study demonstrates that the perception of being treated unfairly by the government is the strongest predictor of both support for and actual participation in protests and political violence.
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Document type: Research paper
Non-State Actors in Civil Wars: A New Dataset
The authors present the Non-State Actors (NSA) in Civil Wars dataset, covering internal armed conflicts from 1945 to 2011. The dataset shifts the unit of analysis from country-years to state-rebel group dyad spells, allowing researchers to examine the specific characteristics of opposition forces rather than just macro-level state variables. Key indicators include rebel strength relative to the government, territorial control, organizational structure (such as the presence of political wings), and external support from states or non-state actors. Descriptive statistics from the dataset show that while over 85% of rebel groups are weaker than their governments, nearly half are at least equal in their specific capacities to mobilize support, procure arms, and fight. The dataset is designed to be compatible with the Uppsala Conflict Data Project (UCDP) Dyadic Dataset to facilitate data aggregation across different research projects.
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Document type: Research paper
Norm Appropriation through Policy Production: Rwanda’s Gender Policies
The author argues that the Government of Rwanda (GoR) is an active shaper of gender equality norms rather than a passive adopter. By analyzing national policy documents, the paper identifies two primary 'problem representations': gender inequality as a result of women's exclusion from the formal economy and as a consequence of citizens having the 'wrong mindset.' The author concludes that the GoR has repurposed these norms to serve a broader nationalist agenda, framing gender equality as a tool for sustainable economic development and the creation of a modern, loyal Rwandan citizen, thereby shifting the meaning of the norms away from the transformation of gendered power relations.
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Document type: Research paper
Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2019
The document provides a comprehensive overview of global conflict trends from 1989 to 2019, noting a record high of 54 state-based conflicts in 2019. It highlights the significant role of the Islamic State (IS) in driving recent conflict increases and the prevalence of internationalized civil conflicts. While battle-related deaths have generally decreased over the last 20 years, specific hotspots in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia remain deadly. The paper also analyzes the decline in peace agreements since 2015 and the persistence of non-state conflicts, particularly violent drug cartel activity in Latin America and communal violence in Africa.
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Document type: Research paper
Conflict Trends in Africa, 1989–2019
The paper analyzes conflict dynamics in Africa from 1989 to 2019, noting a record high of 25 state-based conflicts in 2019, many of which are low-intensity or involve the Islamic State. While Africa faces rising non-state conflicts and one-sided violence, it also leads other regions in the number of definitive ceasefires and peace agreements. The study further details the growth of UN peacekeeping operations in the region from 1994 to 2018, highlighting a significant increase in troop deployment peaking in 2010.
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Document type: Research paper