URBANIZATION AND POLITICAL CHANGE IN AFRICA

The authors contend that African urbanization is a demographic megatrend that reshapes politics in diverse, context-specific ways. They reject a uniform 'urban effect,' proposing instead that political changes—such as shifts in citizen preferences, elite incentives, and forms of mobilization—are the direct result of territorially-situated power struggles and the specific social relations produced within built environments. The paper examines six domains: citizen preferences, elite interests, political mobilization, gender roles, civil society, and contentious collective action, highlighting how these are mediated by the unique histories and physical characteristics of different urban places.

• African urbanization is characterized as 'late urbanization,' occurring without the significant structural economic change seen in Europe and North America, which limits the relevance of early modernization theories.
• The authors propose a 'place-based' analytical lens, arguing that political outcomes are not generic urban effects but results of 'territorially-situated power struggles' linked to specific geographic locales and built environments.
• Urbanization may shift citizen preferences by reducing the influence of ethnic alignment in voting, though this varies by city; for example, 'ethnic pandering' is found to undermine candidate support in Nairobi.
• Political elites respond to urbanization by using administrative reforms, such as creating new districts or subnational units, to maintain legitimacy, distribute patronage, or thwart opposition strength.
• Political mobilization in African cities often relies on clientelism, which may become more entrenched as poor residents in dense slum neighborhoods depend on patrons for protection against evictions.
• Nativist and exclusionary rhetoric is intensifying in several African cities, including Cameroon, Ghana, Nigeria, and Côte d'Ivoire, often linked to disputes over land and 'autochthony'.
• Urbanization can increase women's political participation by improving access to education and the labor market, and by reducing fertility rates, which decreases the burden of household responsibilities.
• Civil society in African cities is non-monolithic, consisting of both emancipatory forces and 'pro-government CSOs' or 'GoNGOs' that may subvert progressive mandates.
• Digital spaces and social media have accelerated urban mobilization in response to shrinking civic spaces, as seen in movements like EndSARS in Nigeria and uprisings in Sudan and Uganda.
• Contentious collective action, such as riots and protests, is overwhelmingly concentrated in urban areas due to social proximity, population density, and the presence of large, disaffected youth cohorts.

APA

Hoelscher, K., Dorward, N., Fox, S., Lawanson, T., Paller, J. W., & Phillips, M. L. (n.d.). URBANIZATION AND POLITICAL CHANGE IN AFRICA. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/272aa1f7-d3fa-4753-88c0-29e86cc075d6/Hoelscher et al 2023 African Affairs accepted pre-typeset.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Hoelscher, Kristian, Nicholas Dorward, Sean Fox, Taibat Lawanson, Jeffrey W. Paller, and Melanie L. Phillips. URBANIZATION AND POLITICAL CHANGE IN AFRICA. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/272aa1f7-d3fa-4753-88c0-29e86cc075d6/Hoelscher et al 2023 African Affairs accepted pre-typeset.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{hoelscherndurbanization, author = {Hoelscher, Kristian and Dorward, Nicholas and Fox, Sean and Lawanson, Taibat and Paller, Jeffrey W. and Phillips, Melanie L.}, title = {{URBANIZATION AND POLITICAL CHANGE IN AFRICA}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/272aa1f7-d3fa-4753-88c0-29e86cc075d6/Hoelscher et al 2023 African Affairs accepted pre-typeset.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }