‘Mtwara Will Be the New Dubai’: Dashed Expectations, Grievances and Civil Unrest in Tanzania

The research examines the link between horizontal inequalities and civil unrest in the Mtwara and Lindi regions of Tanzania. While these regions have faced long-term objective economic marginalization, the authors find that this structural inequality alone did not trigger conflict. Instead, the discovery of natural gas and subsequent government decisions—specifically the decision to pipe gas to Dar es Salaam instead of developing local industry—created frustrated expectations and perceptions of unfair treatment. Using survey data from 804 respondents and 35 interviews, the study demonstrates that the perception of being treated unfairly by the government is the strongest predictor of both support for and actual participation in protests and political violence.

• Objective structural inequalities are insufficient to trigger civil unrest; the population in Southern Tanzania remained peaceful despite decades of economic, political, and social marginalization.
• The discovery of natural gas and subsequent government policy decisions acted as a catalyst for unrest by creating frustrated collective expectations and a sense of injustice.
• Perceptions of unfair treatment by the government are the most significant predictors of both support for and actual participation in civil unrest, including the use of political violence.
• While perceived regional economic inequality and frustrated collective expectations are associated with support for protests, they do not significantly correlate with actual participation in unrest.
• Individual perceptions of inequality (vertical inequality) have no significant effect on the likelihood of supporting or participating in mobilization, reinforcing the importance of group-based identity.
• The decision to construct a 532-kilometre pipeline to transport gas from Mnazi Bay to Dar es Salaam was viewed by locals as a breach of presidential promises to develop local industries.
• Demographic analysis indicates that younger people are more likely to support and participate in civil unrest.

APA

Must, E., & Rustad, S. A. (n.d.). ‘Mtwara Will Be the New Dubai’: Dashed Expectations, Grievances and Civil Unrest in Tanzania. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/3861e967-f834-4fb6-8ebb-7dd2cfc3e333/Mtwara will be the new Dubai_manuscript_June2018.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Must, Elise, and Siri Aas Rustad. ‘Mtwara Will Be the New Dubai’: Dashed Expectations, Grievances and Civil Unrest in Tanzania. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/3861e967-f834-4fb6-8ebb-7dd2cfc3e333/Mtwara will be the new Dubai_manuscript_June2018.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Must |first1=Elise |last2=Rustad |first2=Siri Aas |title=‘Mtwara Will Be the New Dubai’: Dashed Expectations, Grievances and Civil Unrest in Tanzania |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/3861e967-f834-4fb6-8ebb-7dd2cfc3e333/Mtwara will be the new Dubai_manuscript_June2018.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mustndmtwara, author = {Must, Elise and Rustad, Siri Aas}, title = {{‘Mtwara Will Be the New Dubai’: Dashed Expectations, Grievances and Civil Unrest in Tanzania}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/3861e967-f834-4fb6-8ebb-7dd2cfc3e333/Mtwara will be the new Dubai_manuscript_June2018.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }