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The document examines the intersection of global climate goals, EU energy security, and the emergence of the Eastern Mediterranean as a potential gas hub. It analyzes the role of natural gas as a 'bridging fuel' for the EU, the geopolitical use of energy by Russia and Iran, and the commercial and political obstacles facing gas development in Israel, Cyprus, and Egypt, particularly following the discovery of the Zohr field.

The document examines the complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East through a series of expert perspectives. Key themes include the failure of Western 'exceptionalism' in diplomacy, the systemic human rights abuses in countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and the critical role of water scarcity as a driver of intra-state conflict. It provides detailed analysis of the 'bottom-up' stabilization efforts in Iraq via local ceasefires, the strategic threat of Iranian nuclear proliferation, and the use of public diplomacy by non-state actors like Hizbollah. Additionally, it addresses the stalled peace process between Israel and Palestine and the specific challenges of the Cyprus division.

The report examines the 'post-Annan generation' of students in Cyprus, comparing the attitudes of 332 Greek Cypriots and 232 Turkish Cypriots. It finds that Turkish Cypriot students are generally more open to reconciliation and a federal solution, crossing checkpoints more frequently for leisure and shopping. In contrast, Greek Cypriot students are more hesitant to cross, often citing personal conviction or emotional reasons, and are more likely to be undecided or opposed to a potential referendum on a solution. The study establishes a statistically significant link between the quantity of inter-group contact and more reconciliatory political stances, particularly for Greek Cypriots. It also notes that political ideology, specifically a left-wing orientation, correlates with pro-solution attitudes on both sides.

The research argues that civil war dynamics are best understood as dyadic interactions between governments and specific rebel groups rather than through aggregate national characteristics. Using new data on non-state actors, the authors find that militarily strong rebels tend to fight shorter wars and are more likely to achieve decisive victories or concessions. Conversely, conflicts are prolonged when rebels are militarily weak but maintain territorial control in the periphery, as they can evade government repression without being strong enough to force a settlement. The study also indicates that the availability of legal political wings for rebels shortens conflict duration, and that the likelihood of government victory decreases significantly as a conflict persists.

The author argues that mediation is not merely a tool for conflict resolution but a strategic foreign policy instrument that allows middle powers to create 'extra political power space'. By engaging in mediation, these states can build stronger Best Alternatives to a Negotiated Agreement (BATNA), create issue linkages for 'logrolling' with senior allies, and establish network ties. The paper illustrates this through an analysis of Turkey's mediation efforts under the AK Party government between 2002 and 2011, suggesting that Turkey leveraged its role as a peace broker to secure alliance benefits from the US and consolidate domestic political power.

The report examines the intersection of the Cyprus conflict and migration, highlighting how the island's territorial division and communal citizenship regime create systemic barriers for refugees and migrants. It analyzes the securitization of the Green Line, the lack of a formal asylum system in northern Cyprus, and the discriminatory nature of the Republic of Cyprus's citizenship laws, which assign individuals to ethnic communities. The author argues that these conflict-driven structures exacerbate the vulnerability of migrants and recommends revising the citizenship regime as part of peace negotiations.

The document argues that treating nonstate actors as unitary entities in civil conflict analysis creates a gap between conceptual frames and empirical reality. It proposes a 'disaggregation' approach to examine how internal divisions, factionalism, and shifting coalitions influence the initiation, escalation, and termination of violence. The authors highlight that fragmentation can either increase violence through in-group competition or facilitate peace through state co-optation of specific factions. The text calls for more disaggregated data to better understand the dynamics of nonstate actors, including the role of external state intervention in precipitating or exacerbating internal splits.

The scoping review identifies a critical shortage of robust quantitative evidence regarding refugee education interventions. Out of 1,873 screened articles, only eight met the strict methodological criteria for impact evaluation. Findings suggest that while cash transfers can increase the time children spend in school, they do not necessarily increase overall enrolment. Promising results for learning quality were found in early childhood development programmes, online game-based solutions, and language-enhanced physical education for second-language acquisition, as well as child and youth learning centres for literacy and numeracy in camp settings. The authors highlight significant gaps in research concerning the Global South, long-term impacts, and gender-specific needs for girls.

The document provides a comprehensive overview of global conflict trends from 1989 to 2019, noting a record high of 54 state-based conflicts in 2019. It highlights the significant role of the Islamic State (IS) in driving recent conflict increases and the prevalence of internationalized civil conflicts. While battle-related deaths have generally decreased over the last 20 years, specific hotspots in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia remain deadly. The paper also analyzes the decline in peace agreements since 2015 and the persistence of non-state conflicts, particularly violent drug cartel activity in Latin America and communal violence in Africa.

The report estimates that a reunification of Cyprus would provide Turkey with an annual peace dividend of EUR 17.4 billion (3.5% of 2009 GDP), comprising EUR 5.1 billion in savings and EUR 12.3 billion in additional export revenue. Key gains for Turkey include the potential for EUR 7 billion from financial and business services, EUR 1.7 billion from transport, and EUR 1.6 billion from tourism. Additionally, Turkey could see foreign direct investment (FDI) rise to EUR 33 billion per year. Greece is projected to benefit from EUR 2.3 billion in annual military savings, EUR 19.8 billion in FDI, and various gains in tourism and energy transit. The document highlights energy as the greatest opportunity, noting that a settlement would unblock Turkey's EU accession energy chapter and facilitate projects like Blue Stream-2.

The report examines the impact of natural gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean on the geopolitics of Cyprus. It details the conflicting maritime claims between the Republic of Cyprus (RoC), Turkey, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), while analyzing the economic viability of various export options including LNG and pipelines. The authors conclude that the most likely future is a continuation of the status quo, where the RoC's ability to exploit gas remains heavily dependent on Israeli export decisions and the absence of a political settlement with Turkey.

The research examines the Central Asia Regional Security Complex (CA RSC), comprising Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. It argues that while these states share concerns regarding trans-border terrorism, extremism, and narcotics trafficking from Afghanistan, their primary security drivers are internal rivalries and the strategic balancing of global powers—specifically Russia, China, and the USA. The author contends that the 'Heart of Asia' concept fails because it underestimates inter-state non-cooperation and ignores the distinct security dynamics of sub-regions. Central Asian states employ a 'multi-vector' foreign policy to maximize benefits from competing external interests while guarding their sovereignty. Consequently, their engagement with Afghanistan is fragmented and unilateral, focused on extracting economic rent or preventing security 'bleed-out' rather than a unified regional strategy.

The paper argues that Turkey's foreign policy in Syria is primarily driven by domestic considerations under the AKP's illiberal populist governance. Key internal drivers include the presence of 3.7 million Syrian refugees, economic downturn, and the 're-securitization' of the Kurdish issue, which has pushed the government toward a nationalist alliance with the MHP. This domestic shift has fueled anti-Westernism, straining relations with the US over Kurdish partnerships and the S-400 missile purchase, and with the EU over refugee management and Mediterranean hydrocarbon disputes. Consequently, Turkey has entered a transactional 'partnership of convenience' with Russia, though this relationship faces sustainability challenges due to conflicting goals in Idlib, Syria.

The report examines the water crisis in North Cyprus, driven by climate change and poor management, and evaluates the 'Project of the Century'—a pipeline transporting water from Turkey's Toros Mountains to North Cyprus. It highlights the risks of over-reliance on Turkey, the failure of current decentralized water management, and the lack of coordination between the island's divided administrations. The authors recommend transitioning to a centralized, transparent governance model based on OECD principles, diversifying water sources through renewable-energy-powered desalination, and fostering bi-communal cooperation to ensure long-term environmental sustainability.

The research paper analyzes the strategic motivations for terrorism in civil wars using a new dataset linking the Uppsala/PRIO Armed Conflict Data and the Global Terrorism Database. It argues that terrorism serves to coerce governments and communicate resolve, particularly for militarily weaker groups. The study finds that the frequency of attacks increases with government repression and press freedom. Furthermore, it identifies a correlation between group ideology and targeting: groups with universalist ideologies (e.g., Marxist-socialist) predominantly target 'hard' official targets, while those with sectarian or religious ideologies are more likely to target 'soft' civilian targets due to stronger 'othering' of out-groups.

The Astana process, initiated by Russia and co-sponsored by Turkey and Iran, emerged in 2017 as a parallel track to UN-led peace talks in Syria. While it achieved some tangible results in ceasefire and de-escalation, the document argues that it has been heavily instrumentalized by its sponsors to serve their own geopolitical interests. This has led to significant deficits in representation, as participants were selected based on political preferences rather than inclusivity, and a lack of Syrian ownership, effectively transforming the Syrian crisis into a negotiation among three external 'guarantor powers'.

The research examines why self-determination groups adopt different strategies to achieve greater self-rule. By analyzing 146 groups across 77 states from 1960 to 2005, the author finds that while some factors like economic discrimination and independence demands increase the likelihood of both non-violent and violent irregular politics, others—such as group size and internal fragmentation—differentially drive groups toward either civil war or non-violent campaigns.

The report examines the impact of the Turkey-North Cyprus water pipeline, an innovative project pumping water from the Taurus Mountains to North Cyprus, within the context of increasing water scarcity in the Eastern Mediterranean. It highlights a systemic failure in water governance in North Cyprus, characterized by short-term political tactics, lack of coordination, and unsustainable groundwater extraction leading to salinisation. While the pipeline provides a significant new resource, the authors argue that without comprehensive reform—including the creation of an independent regulatory board, better data collection, and bi-communal cooperation—the project may not ensure long-term climate resilience. The report suggests adopting OECD principles of water governance to improve effectiveness, efficiency, and trust.

The document outlines the environmental and economic dangers of expanding liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure. It highlights that the LNG process is energy-intensive and prone to methane leaks, with US-sourced LNG potentially having a carbon footprint 28% higher than coal. Financially, the report warns of severe overcapacity in Europe, where import capacity may reach 400 billion m3 by 2030 despite a projected demand of only 150-190 billion m3, leading to a high risk of stranded assets in countries such as France, Germany, and Italy. It concludes that conversion to hydrogen or biomethane is largely technically and economically unfeasible, urging financial actors to cease all support for gas expansion.

The document outlines the high energy consumption and methane leakage associated with the LNG value chain, highlighting that US-produced LNG can have a carbon footprint 28% higher than coal. It warns of significant financial risks, including the potential for LNG infrastructure to become stranded assets due to overcapacity, particularly in Europe where utilization rates are forecast to drop to 36% by 2030.