It Takes Two: A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome

The research argues that civil war dynamics are best understood as dyadic interactions between governments and specific rebel groups rather than through aggregate national characteristics. Using new data on non-state actors, the authors find that militarily strong rebels tend to fight shorter wars and are more likely to achieve decisive victories or concessions. Conversely, conflicts are prolonged when rebels are militarily weak but maintain territorial control in the periphery, as they can evade government repression without being strong enough to force a settlement. The study also indicates that the availability of legal political wings for rebels shortens conflict duration, and that the likelihood of government victory decreases significantly as a conflict persists.

• Rebel groups with stronger military capabilities, including high mobilization capacity and arms procurement, are associated with shorter conflict durations.
• The presence of a legally recognized political wing for rebel groups increases the likelihood of conflict termination, independent of the state's overall level of democracy.
• The probability of a government victory declines precipitously over time; after approximately 50 days, government victory becomes less likely than a 'low activity' outcome.
• Decisive outcomes—such as rebel victory, government victory, or formal agreements—are more frequent when rebels are militarily stronger than or at parity with the government.
• Conflicts involving multiple non-state actors (multiple dyads) tend to last longer than those with a single rebel group.
• Democratic institutions alone do not necessarily shorten civil wars; the data shows a negative effect of democracy on the hazard rate of conflict termination.
• Coup attempts are significantly shorter in duration than other types of civil conflicts.

APA

Peace Research Institute Oslo (n.d.). It Takes Two: A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/3ebe4aa1-fbe6-4e22-ab92-2145cd56abe4/It Takes Two A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Peace Research Institute Oslo. It Takes Two: A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome. n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/3ebe4aa1-fbe6-4e22-ab92-2145cd56abe4/It Takes Two A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Peace Research Institute Oslo |title=It Takes Two: A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/3ebe4aa1-fbe6-4e22-ab92-2145cd56abe4/It Takes Two A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{peaceresearchinstituteoslondtakes, author = {{Peace Research Institute Oslo}}, title = {{It Takes Two: A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/3ebe4aa1-fbe6-4e22-ab92-2145cd56abe4/It Takes Two A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }