The Shifting Turkish Agenda in Syria’s Evolving Conflict

The paper argues that Turkey's foreign policy in Syria is primarily driven by domestic considerations under the AKP's illiberal populist governance. Key internal drivers include the presence of 3.7 million Syrian refugees, economic downturn, and the 're-securitization' of the Kurdish issue, which has pushed the government toward a nationalist alliance with the MHP. This domestic shift has fueled anti-Westernism, straining relations with the US over Kurdish partnerships and the S-400 missile purchase, and with the EU over refugee management and Mediterranean hydrocarbon disputes. Consequently, Turkey has entered a transactional 'partnership of convenience' with Russia, though this relationship faces sustainability challenges due to conflicting goals in Idlib, Syria.

• Turkey's foreign policy in Syria is heavily influenced by domestic pressures, particularly the presence of 3.7 million Syrian refugees, which has led to widespread public discontent and the use of refugees as scapegoats during an economic downturn where the lira lost nearly 40% of its value against the US dollar between January 2018 and June 2019.
• A significant ideological shift toward nationalism occurred after 2013, driven by the AKP's breakdown with the Gülen movement and a subsequent alliance with the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). This shift utilizes the 'Sèvres syndrome' to frame Western support for Kurdish autonomy in Syria as a conspiracy against Turkey.
• Relations with the United States have deteriorated due to a lack of trust, specifically regarding the US partnership with the Syrian Kurdish YPG/YPJ, the US refusal to extradite Fetullah Gülen, and Turkey's purchase of the Russian S-400 Triumph missile system, which led to Turkey's suspension from the F-35 program.
• Turkey's relationship with the European Union has transitioned from a 'transformative' goal of membership to a 'transactional' one, exacerbated by the 2016 Turkey-EU migration deal and disputes over hydrocarbon exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean involving Cyprus.
• The pivot toward Russia is characterized as a 'partnership of convenience' rather than a replacement for NATO, based on mutual interests such as energy collaboration (e.g., the Turkstream gas pipeline) and Putin's support for Erdogan after the 2016 coup attempt.
• The sustainability of the Turkey-Russia alliance is threatened by the conflict in Idlib, Syria. While the 2018 Sochi Agreement established a demilitarized zone, subsequent failures to remove radical groups and Russian-backed Syrian offensives in January 2020 have created 'untenable' conditions.

APA

Tank, P. (n.d.). The Shifting Turkish Agenda in Syria’s Evolving Conflict. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fbe7a706-68a8-4658-900f-86e8ab36b2b9/Tank Pinar - The Shifting Turkish Agenda in Syrias Evolving Conflict - PRIO Paper 2020.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Tank, Pinar. The Shifting Turkish Agenda in Syria’s Evolving Conflict. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fbe7a706-68a8-4658-900f-86e8ab36b2b9/Tank Pinar - The Shifting Turkish Agenda in Syrias Evolving Conflict - PRIO Paper 2020.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{tankndshifting, author = {Tank, Pinar}, title = {{The Shifting Turkish Agenda in Syria’s Evolving Conflict}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fbe7a706-68a8-4658-900f-86e8ab36b2b9/Tank Pinar - The Shifting Turkish Agenda in Syrias Evolving Conflict - PRIO Paper 2020.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }