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The report indicates that while global coal capacity is nearing an end with one-third of the 580 GW fleet having set closure dates, the pace of exit is insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals. China is a major outlier, with its development-stage capacity increasing by 32% to 366 GW in 2022, while the rest of the world saw a 22% decrease. In the EU and UK, the energy crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine slowed retirements and led to the temporary restart of some units, though coal's share of electricity production only rose by 1%. Turkey ranks third globally in developing coal capacity with approximately 11 GW of announced projects, though many face financing and legal hurdles, and the government plans only 3.2 GW of new coal capacity by 2035.

The report finds that while the world outside China is nearing a 'no new coal' milestone, a massive surge in coal permitting and construction in China is offsetting global progress. In 2022, the global coal fleet grew by 19.5 GW, driven by China, which now accounts for 68% of global capacity under development. While the U.S. and EU continue to retire capacity, the pace of global retirements remains far below the levels required to meet a 1.5C pathway, which would necessitate an average of 117 GW of retirements per year. The report also highlights the role of private finance, noting that most financial institutions' coal policies remain insufficient to align with climate science.

The Middle East experienced a significant decline in battle-related deaths in 2022, primarily due to de-escalation in Syria and Yemen. While state-based conflicts remain the deadliest and most common, non-state conflicts proliferated in the 2010s before declining. One-sided violence increased in Iran in 2022 following protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini.

In 2022, solar and wind energy accounted for 92% of India's new power generation capacity, totaling 15.7 GW, while coal additions dropped by 78% compared to 2021. Solar energy was the primary driver, adding 13.9 GW in a single year. Rajasthan and Gujarat emerged as the leading states, together contributing 8.6 GW of solar capacity and accounting for one-third of India's national 2030 renewable energy capacity target of 450 GW. Rajasthan set a state-level record by adding 6.7 GW of combined solar and wind capacity in 2022.

In 2022, Türkiye's coal generation returned to its previous peak of 113.6 TWh, driven largely by imported coal, with Russia becoming the primary supplier and the import bill reaching a record $5.3 billion. While wind and solar combined for a 15.5% share of generation, solar deployment lags behind its potential and faces grid capacity barriers. Hydropower proved critical for energy security during a ten-day gas supply disruption from Iran in January 2022, demonstrating its flexibility as a complement to variable renewables.

The briefing examines the phenomenon of 'weaponized migration,' where states use vulnerable migrants as political pawns, as seen in Belarus's actions toward the EU. It argues that as climate change increases human displacement, this tactic is likely to become more common, necessitating a US policy shift that recognizes climate change as a driver of migration.

The document outlines a comprehensive framework of 101 sustainable finance policies categorized by three primary ambitions: speed, steer, and simplify. It provides specific recommendations across various government departments—including fiscal, trade, energy, and industrial policy—as well as for central banks and financial regulators. The guide emphasizes the need for science-based targets, the removal of fossil fuel subsidies, the use of green taxonomies, and the implementation of derisking mechanisms like blended finance to mobilize private capital for the 1.5°C transition.

The cement sector is a major industrial emitter, accounting for approximately 7% of global CO2 emissions and 4% of EU emissions. The report argues that the current decade is critical because 30% of EU cement kilns will reach the end of their life by 2030, presenting a window to avoid stranded assets by investing in low-carbon technologies. Key technical levers include reducing the clinker-to-cement ratio, implementing carbon capture and storage (CCS), and substituting fossil fuels with biomass and waste. To support this, the report recommends a comprehensive policy suite: upstream (accelerating renewable energy and CO2 infrastructure), midstream (implementing Carbon Contracts for Difference and phasing out ETS free allowances), and downstream (mandating green public procurement and scaling off-take agreements). It also highlights the role of sustainable finance, noting that while sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs) have been issued, their potential in the cement sector remains under-exploited due to a lack of sector-specific standards.

The Ukraine war has accelerated a shift toward transactional alliances in the Middle East, empowering states like Saudi Arabia and Turkey to pursue greater strategic autonomy while weakening others like Egypt. As US influence diminishes and Russia focuses on its war effort, China has expanded its role from an economic power to a diplomatic mediator, exemplified by brokering the March 2023 Saudi-Iran rapprochement. The document also notes that Vladimir Putin's authoritarian leadership style and anti-Western ideological framing resonate with regional strongmen, posing a challenge to the liberal democratic order and the normative foreign policy of states like Norway.

The report finds that five major Swiss financial institutions—UBS, Credit Suisse, Swiss Life AM, Zurich, and Pictet—continue to provide billions in financing and investments to companies expanding coal, oil, and gas production. Despite public net-zero pledges, the authors argue these institutions maintain weak policies with significant loopholes, engage in 'net-zero greenwashing,' and send mixed signals through inconsistent voting practices at shareholder meetings.

The Strategic Plan for Advancing Energy Efficiency Across Demand Sectors by 2030 outlines a framework for G20 countries to double the global annual rate of energy intensity improvement. It focuses on five pillars: buildings, industry, transport, financing, and behavioral change. The plan argues that energy efficiency is the 'first fuel' for the energy transition and proposes specific high-impact opportunities, such as rethinking building codes (RENEW), scaling motor efficiency for SMEs (SME²), and aggregating energy services (FAST). It emphasizes the need to triple annual energy efficiency investments to approximately USD 840 billion by 2030 and highlights the potential of the Indian 'Lifestyle for Environment' (LiFE) initiative to reduce global CO2 emissions by 2 billion tonnes by 2030.

The report analyzes the voluntary carbon market (VCM), focusing on the opaque role of intermediaries and the lifecycle of carbon credits from creation to retirement. It identifies a lack of transparency in transaction data and pricing, noting that while project creation and end-user claims are somewhat documented, the movements of credits between issuance and retirement remain largely hidden. The analysis details the costs associated with different project types—renewable energy, household devices, and forestry—and the various fees charged by registries and intermediaries. It concludes with recommendations for registries and corporations to increase disclosure of account holders and retirement details to improve market trust.

The document examines the link between environmental collapse and militarization in southern Iraq, specifically how water scarcity and agricultural failure have made militia recruitment an economic necessity for rural populations. It details a history of ecological trauma, state neglect, and the role of upstream damming in Turkey and Iran, which have collectively gutted the local economy and pushed residents toward either migration or armed groups.

The author argues that while the EU views the energy transition as a path to energy security and global leadership, it currently lacks a comprehensive strategic plan. Internally, the EU faces risks of redundant spending and political friction between Western and Eastern member states over the distribution of benefits. Externally, the transition shifts dependencies from fossil fuel imports to critical materials and clean technology competition with the US and China. The document suggests the EU must integrate energy, infrastructure, and industrial policy to secure its markets and maintain stability in its neighborhood.

The report finds that 40 financial institutions fund a combined methane footprint that could exceed 503 Mt CO2e. It highlights a significant gap between the climate commitments of the countries where these institutions are domiciled and the institutions' own internal policies, which are described as weak or non-existent regarding agri-methane.

Turkey has rapidly become a global exporter of military drones, specifically the Bayraktar TB2 and Akıncı models, using this technology to enhance its soft power and establish new geopolitical alliances. This shift is part of a broader quest for 'strategic autonomy'—the ability to make defense decisions independently—driven by past arms sanctions from the US and technical failures with Israeli technology. While the drone sector has provided a significant economic boost, with defense and aerospace exports exceeding $4 billion in 2022, the brief highlights critical concerns regarding the lack of parliamentary oversight, centralized decision-making in the President's office, and alleged human rights violations by end-users in conflict zones like Ethiopia and Libya.

The Healthy NDC Scorecard 2023 analyzes 58 NDCs to evaluate the integration of health into national climate policies. While 90% of analyzed NDCs mention health and climate linkages, the report finds a significant mismatch between health recognition and actual climate ambition, particularly in G20 nations. Low- and middle-income countries generally achieved the highest health scores, while several high-income nations scored zero. The report recommends enhanced intersectoral collaboration, the quantification of health co-benefits to secure financing, and the exclusion of the fossil fuel industry from climate policymaking.

The report analyzes how EU and G7 sanctions on Russian coal imports have disrupted the Kuzbass region, which produces over 55% of Russia's coal. It details the region's high economic dependency on coal, the logistical challenges of redirecting exports to Asia, and the risks of social unrest due to potential job losses. The document presents three future scenarios (Reference, Soft, and Hard) through 2030, projecting significant declines in production, revenue, and employment under the 'Hard' scenario, while noting that reduced coal activity may lower methane and CO2 emissions.

The report analyzes how the Russian War in Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions have disrupted decades of energy diplomacy. While Russian crude oil exports proved resilient by redirecting volumes to India and China, the gas sector faced a severe crisis due to its reliance on European pipelines. The document details the use of 'shadow fleets' and blending to circumvent oil price caps and the limited feasibility of redirecting pipeline gas. It concludes that Russia is becoming increasingly dependent on China and that the focus on survival and new fossil fuel markets has marginalized its domestic low-carbon agenda.

The report finds that majorities in all 73 surveyed low-emission areas have experienced extreme weather, with unusually hot weather being the most common hazard. Most respondents attribute these events to climate change, yet significant gaps in individual and household preparedness exist, particularly in South America and Europe. Recovery times vary widely, with some populations in Central Asia and the Balkans expecting recovery to take a year or more.