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The report examines the impact of natural gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean on the geopolitics of Cyprus. It details the conflicting maritime claims between the Republic of Cyprus (RoC), Turkey, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), while analyzing the economic viability of various export options including LNG and pipelines. The authors conclude that the most likely future is a continuation of the status quo, where the RoC's ability to exploit gas remains heavily dependent on Israeli export decisions and the absence of a political settlement with Turkey.

The document argues that rebel groups provide a unique 'laboratory' for understanding governance because they operate outside the Westphalian state system. It examines how rebels implement rule-making, enforcement, and service provision, and how these activities relate to their legitimacy and capacity. The authors propose a multi-dimensional framework for rebel capacity—military, economic, personnel, administrative, and social—and argue that territorial control is not always a prerequisite for governance. By comparing rebel and state behaviors, the paper suggests that governance is often multi-layered and that the relationship between territorial control and legitimacy is complex and non-linear.

The authors examine the rise of Security Force Assistance (SFA)—the training and equipping of foreign armed forces—as a preferred alternative to large-scale combat deployments and expensive security sector reform. They argue that in fragile states, SFA often fails because providers misread local political dynamics, where ruling elites may manipulate security fragmentation for their own survival. The paper critiques the standard principal-agent theory of SFA, suggesting it lacks the nuance to account for the heterogeneity of programs and the lack of cohesiveness among multiple providers and recipients. Through various case studies, the authors highlight unintended consequences, such as the creation of elite units that serve as instruments for regime protection rather than national security.

The document analyzes Israel's systematic effort to delegitimize and dismantle UNRWA through a 'shadow war' involving physical attacks, legal prohibitions, and an information campaign. It argues that Israel uses accusations of terrorism and antisemitism—specifically targeting school textbooks—as a proxy to undermine the agency's existence and, by extension, the Palestinian right of return. The authors detail the severe humanitarian impact of these actions in Gaza and the West Bank, noting that the culmination of this process was the passage of laws in October 2024 to ban UNRWA's operations in Israel and the occupied territories.

The paper argues that Turkey's foreign policy in Syria is primarily driven by domestic considerations under the AKP's illiberal populist governance. Key internal drivers include the presence of 3.7 million Syrian refugees, economic downturn, and the 're-securitization' of the Kurdish issue, which has pushed the government toward a nationalist alliance with the MHP. This domestic shift has fueled anti-Westernism, straining relations with the US over Kurdish partnerships and the S-400 missile purchase, and with the EU over refugee management and Mediterranean hydrocarbon disputes. Consequently, Turkey has entered a transactional 'partnership of convenience' with Russia, though this relationship faces sustainability challenges due to conflicting goals in Idlib, Syria.

The authors examine the morality of coercive diplomacy, distinguishing between deterrent and compellent threats. They argue that while threats are less harmful than actual force, they are not morally neutral and must be assessed via just war principles including just cause, proportionality, legitimate authority, and right intention.

The research paper analyzes the strategic motivations for terrorism in civil wars using a new dataset linking the Uppsala/PRIO Armed Conflict Data and the Global Terrorism Database. It argues that terrorism serves to coerce governments and communicate resolve, particularly for militarily weaker groups. The study finds that the frequency of attacks increases with government repression and press freedom. Furthermore, it identifies a correlation between group ideology and targeting: groups with universalist ideologies (e.g., Marxist-socialist) predominantly target 'hard' official targets, while those with sectarian or religious ideologies are more likely to target 'soft' civilian targets due to stronger 'othering' of out-groups.

The Astana process, initiated by Russia and co-sponsored by Turkey and Iran, emerged in 2017 as a parallel track to UN-led peace talks in Syria. While it achieved some tangible results in ceasefire and de-escalation, the document argues that it has been heavily instrumentalized by its sponsors to serve their own geopolitical interests. This has led to significant deficits in representation, as participants were selected based on political preferences rather than inclusivity, and a lack of Syrian ownership, effectively transforming the Syrian crisis into a negotiation among three external 'guarantor powers'.

The author argues that World Refugee Day (WRD) functions as a tool for the UNHCR to recast refugee agency as an extension of its own humanitarian efforts, effectively acting as a 'surrogate state' for displaced people. By analyzing the 'World Pays Tribute' news story, the paper highlights a tension between the celebratory, de-politicized imagery of WRD—which often uses 'utopian representations' of joyful refugees—and the 'extra-democratic' realities of UNHCR governance, such as the 'warehousing' of refugees in camps and procedural gaps in refugee status determination.

The report '80 Gigawatts of Change' presents seven modeled scenarios for Egypt's electricity sector from 2015 to 2035. It compares a 'Business as Usual' (BAU) baseline against pathways focusing on decarbonization, energy independence, and decentralization. The analysis highlights that while centralized fossil-fuel-based models are cheaper in the short term, they risk 'carbon lock-in' and exacerbate energy access inequities. Conversely, decentralized and renewable-heavy pathways offer higher job creation and lower emissions but require significant initial investment and institutional reform. The report specifically warns against coal and nuclear power due to high water consumption, environmental risks, and low job creation relative to renewables.

The paper proposes a green-blue water approach to watershed management, emphasizing that managing soil moisture (green water) can increase water productivity and reduce downstream scarcity. It examines the hydrological impacts of land-use changes, such as deforestation and afforestation, and discusses the use of Payments for Environmental Services (PES) to incentivize sustainable upland management. Case studies from the Jordan and Tana River basins illustrate the challenges of transboundary cooperation and the potential for 'soft-path' interventions over large-scale infrastructure.

The document presents two tables detailing the use of chemical weapons. The first table covers World War I (1914-1918), listing agents such as chlorine, phosgene, and mustard gas, with total casualties estimated at 1,240,000 and approximately 88,500 deaths. The second table lists more recent uses of nerve agents like sarin and tabun in Iraq and Syria, including the 1984-onwards Iran-Iraq conflict and the 2013 Ghouta attack.

Post-disaster rebuilding often creates a massive spike in demand for construction materials, sometimes equivalent to 15 years of typical demand, which can lead to unregulated resource extraction and increased greenhouse gas emissions. The document highlights how the demand for cement and sand contributes to global CO2 emissions and ecosystem degradation, respectively. It advocates for the strategic recycling and reuse of disaster debris—such as concrete, metals, and wood—to reduce pressure on natural resources, lower costs, and create local jobs, thereby strengthening long-term community resilience.