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The document critiques the traditional 'rescue paradigm' of humanitarian intervention, where external forces attempt to protect passive victims. Instead, it proposes a model based on 'self-reliance,' identifying four primary civilian survival strategies: avoidance, concession, collective action, and arming. The author suggests that international efforts, including military and aid operations, should be redesigned to support these local initiatives rather than imposing top-down solutions.

The document analyzes international mediation as a tool for peacemaking, noting that while it has become more common since the Cold War—particularly for interstate conflicts—it is underutilized in civil wars. It highlights a geographical bias toward Europe and the Middle East and a trend toward the regionalization of mediation through organizations like the African Union and ECOWAS. While mediation significantly increases the likelihood of short-term settlements, the authors find no evidence of consistent long-term positive effects on durable peace.

Friends of the Earth International celebrates the leadership of women in justice movements and emphasizes that dismantling the patriarchy is essential for a just world. The statement highlights the central role of women in agroecological production and the disproportionate violence faced by women human rights defenders, particularly those protecting land and natural resources.

The author contends that Germany's historical preference for non-military foreign policy and economic cooperation is no longer viable in a globalised world. Highlighting the paralysis of the UN Security Council and the rise of authoritarianism, the text calls for a more active European foreign policy. It specifically emphasizes the need for the EU to support Ukraine against Russian neo-imperialism and to maintain a value-based partnership with the United States to avoid security vacuums.

The document analyzes the ideological shift within European green parties—specifically in Belgium, France, and Germany—from a foundation of anti-militarism and nuclear disarmament in the 1980s toward a complex tension between pacifism and the 'responsibility to protect' human rights. It highlights how events such as the Kosovo conflict, the September 11 attacks, and the 2011 intervention in Libya created internal divisions between those advocating for absolute non-violence and those supporting legal military intervention to prevent massacres. The author argues that green parties must now address new complexities of modern warfare, including privatization and environmental consequences, to pursue their ultimate goals of world peace and global disarmament.

The document examines the ideological shift within European Green parties regarding the use of force, moving from 1980s antimilitarism and anti-nuclear activism toward a complex debate between strict pacifism and humanitarian interventionism based on international law.

The author critiques the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for focusing on income poverty and development aid rather than structural inequality and the link between social and environmental dimensions. While noting progress in poverty reduction and water access, the text highlights that global inequality is rising and environmental degradation is accelerating due to the consumption patterns of an expanding global middle class. The author asserts that industrialised countries, particularly the European Union, must assume global responsibility by meeting the 0.7% GNI official development assistance target and drastically reducing their per capita CO2 emissions to allow the Global South scope for sustainable development.

The document examines the challenges European Green parties face in reconciling non-violence with the need to protect human rights in conflict zones. It argues for a shift in EU foreign policy from reactive crisis management to a proactive, multilateral approach that prioritizes ecological justice, nuclear disarmament, and the empowerment of civil society. Specific analyses cover the conflicts in Ukraine, Syria, and the Maghreb, as well as the strategic importance of South East Asia.

The author contends that increasing security measures and restricting liberties in response to terrorist attacks in Paris and elsewhere is ineffective and risks further marginalizing religious groups. The text highlights the rise of far-right movements like Pegida in Germany and the AfD, as well as the growth of populist discourse in Austria, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark. It argues that structural issues—such as the 'apartheid' between French cities and banlieues, youth unemployment, and resource tensions—drive instability. The document advocates for a strategy based on education, equal rights for minorities, and the reinforcement of universal values of freedom and solidarity to combat extremism.

The author argues that the border fence at the Evros river, praised by Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, has not stopped migration but merely shifted flows toward the sea, leading to increased arrivals on Greek islands and more deaths at sea. The text frames this as part of a wider European trend where leaders in the UK, France, and Germany adopt right-wing rhetoric to counter populist parties, which the author claims ultimately strengthens the far-right.

The report challenges the 'jihadi bride' stereotype, arguing that Western women migrate to ISIS due to a complex mix of push factors (social isolation, perceived persecution of Muslims) and pull factors (religious duty, sisterhood, and romanticised adventure). While their primary roles are domestic, some women engage in propaganda and professional services. The document analyses de-radicalisation models in Germany, Denmark, Sweden, and the UK, concluding that there is a critical shortage of female mentors and gender-nuanced counter-narratives to effectively address this threat.

The policy brief examines the 'special partnership' between Russia and Turkey, noting that while they disagree on the Syrian civil war, they share autocratic political instincts and a mutual desire to curtail US interventionism. The author argues that Russia can boost its Middle Eastern role through joint initiatives with Turkey, leveraging the personal chemistry between Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. While energy ties—specifically natural gas pipelines and the Akkuyu nuclear power plant—provide a foundation, the document suggests that the leaders' shared 'contrarian' tendencies and need for foreign policy victories are primary drivers for potential cooperation in Northern Syria and the South Caucasus.

The author challenges the consensus in international relations that the field can explain but not predict political phenomena. He argues that there is little theoretical basis for distinguishing between explanation and prediction, and that modern data and machine learning make prediction empirically possible. The paper outlines three generations of conflict prediction, from early behavioralist ambitions to current sophisticated early warning systems used by entities like the UN and EU. The author contends that focusing on prediction improves theory testing by moving beyond statistical significance to evaluate whether models can actually reproduce data-generating mechanisms. While acknowledging the challenges of 'black swan' events and non-linear complex systems, he asserts that the alternative to scientific prediction is often reliance on unreliable expert intuition.

The document analyzes the African Group's engagement at the UN Human Rights Council, noting a tension between a desire for regional leadership and a tendency to grant accused governments veto power over resolutions. While some 'human rights-friendly' states consistently support country-specific resolutions, others systematically abstain or oppose them, leading to an uneven response to crises across the continent and globally.

The document evaluates South Africa's reintegration into global affairs and its role as a leader for the African agenda. While acknowledging South Africa's success in joining platforms like the G-20 and BRICS and its significant economic investments in Africa, the author identifies a 'twin deficit': a lack of consistency between diplomatic actions and constitutional values (democracy and human rights), and a 'lone-wolf' approach that alienates regional partners. The brief recommends that Pretoria move away from a pragmatic 'do no harm' approach toward issue-based partnerships and institutional reforms within the Department of International Relations and Co-operation (DIRCO) to regain credibility as a trusted interlocutor in African conflicts.

The emergence of the Islamic State represents a significant shift in global jihadism, offering a divisive alternative to al-Qaeda. Africa is particularly vulnerable due to the presence of established radical Islamist groups and the potential return of thousands of battle-hardened African fighters from Iraq and Syria. The document warns that the Islamic State's model of territorial occupation and its extreme ideology could destabilise several African regions, particularly North and West Africa. It argues that governments should avoid draconian counter-terrorism measures, which often fuel radicalisation, and instead pursue criminal justice-based approaches that address local drivers of discontent.

The policy brief examines the tension between national interests and human rights values in the foreign policies of emerging democracies like Brazil, India, Indonesia, and South Africa. While these states have collaborated with established democracies on specific crises in Myanmar, North Korea, and Libya, the author identifies significant cleavages driven by a preference for sovereignty, non-intervention, and economic interests. The document highlights how historical grievances against Northern hegemony and fear of reciprocal criticism of domestic records inhibit a consistent pro-human rights stance. However, it notes that transnational advocacy, the globalisation of media, and international mechanisms like the UN Human Rights Council provide pathways to pressure states toward greater accountability.

Following the 2014 removal of President Viktor Yanukovych, Russia intervened militarily in Ukraine, leading to the annexation of Crimea via a disputed referendum. The author argues that Russia's justification of protecting the 'Russian world' sets a dangerous precedent for further aggression against other former Soviet states.

The document argues that internal armed conflict acts as 'development in reverse,' creating a 'conflict trap' where low development leads to war, which further degrades socio-economic conditions. Research by PRIO indicates that conflict detrimentally affects most MDG indicators, including GDP per capita, infant mortality, and access to potable water. Notably, the indirect effects of conflict—such as the destruction of health infrastructure and diversion of resources to military spending—can be as severe as direct battlefield casualties. The authors advocate for the UN General Assembly to make conflict reduction an explicit goal in the post-2015 development agenda to break this cycle.

The report examines the 'technologization' of humanitarian work, highlighting how tools like crisis mapping, social media, and drones can improve efficiency but also threaten humanitarian principles of neutrality and impartiality. It warns that the lack of standardized guidelines for data collection and biometric registration creates significant privacy risks and potential for surveillance, urging Norway and international bodies like OCHA to lead in developing responsible technological standards.