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Monthly Attribution Overview – July 2026
In July 2026, the United States experienced widespread above-average temperatures, with an average anomaly of 1.5°F across 192 cities. The Northern Rockies and Plains were the warmest region, exceeding normals by more than 4.0°F. Long-term data indicates that 185 of the 192 analyzed cities have warmed since 1970, with Reno, Nevada, showing the most significant increase. Climate attribution analysis using the Climate Shift Index (CSI) showed that San Juan, Puerto Rico, had 31 days where temperatures were at least two times more likely due to climate change.
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Document type: Report
Monthly Attribution Overview – June 2026
In June 2026, the United States experienced slightly above-average temperatures, with an average anomaly of 0.7°F across 192 analyzed cities. The Southwest was the warmest region, with temperatures more than 2.9°F above normal, and Flagstaff, Arizona, recorded the most unusual warmth at 4.0°F above normal. Long-term trends show that 189 of the 192 cities have warmed since 1970, with Reno, Nevada, seeing the greatest increase of 10.6°F. Climate attribution analysis using the Climate Shift Index (CSI) indicates that San Juan, Puerto Rico, had 30 days where temperatures were at least two times more likely due to climate change.
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Document type: Report
Quem mais precisa menos acessa: recomendações para um Pronaf inclusivo e sustentável
The report finds that Pronaf exhibits a regressive distribution of credit, where the most capitalized producers receive the bulk of resources while the most vulnerable are excluded. It highlights that 79% of family farmers did not access Pronaf credit in 2024/25, and resources are heavily concentrated in the South and Southeast regions and in conventional crops like soy, corn, and coffee. The document argues that lines for bioeconomy and agroecology remain marginal, often representing less than 1% of total credit. It emphasizes the critical but underfunded role of Technical Assistance and Rural Extension (ATER), which received less than 0.3% of the total family agriculture budget in the 2025/26 Plan Safra. To address these failures, the report recommends establishing minimum allocation targets for smallholders and the North/Northeast regions, updating outdated fiscal modules for eligibility, integrating the Brazilian Sustainable Taxonomy, and blocking subsidized credit for properties with recent deforestation.
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Document type: Report
Closing the Rural Credit Divide: Pathways to Increase PRONAF Access for Smallholders
The research identifies significant regional and gender disparities in access to PRONAF credit in Brazil, finding that technical assistance (ATER) and cooperative membership are critical determinants of access. While the 2025/26 Agricultural Plan allocated R$ 78.2 billion to PRONAF, a previous study indicated that approximately 85% of smallholders lack credit access. Simulations show that expanding ATER would most effectively increase access in the North and Northeast, while strengthening cooperatives would be most impactful in the Southeast and Midwest. The report warns that declining federal investments in ATER—dropping to approximately R$ 26.48 million by October 2025—compromise the program's ability to build climate resilience among vulnerable smallholders.
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Document type: Research paper
Quem Fica de Fora do Pronaf?
The report analyzes inequalities in access to Pronaf credit among Brazilian family farmers, identifying technical assistance (ATER) and cooperatives as key drivers of access. It highlights a stark regional divide, with the South region having significantly higher access than the North and Northeast. The study argues that credit alone is insufficient for climate adaptation and calls for increased investment in ATER, which has seen a downward trend in federal spending, to ensure a just and sustainable agricultural transition.
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Document type: Report
Thunderstorm Straight-Line Winds
Severe storms in the U.S. have become significantly more costly, with billion-dollar events increasing more than five-fold between 2005–2024 compared to 1985–2004. While the overall frequency of severe and tornadic thunderstorms has not changed significantly since 1979, tornado activity is concentrating into more frequent and extreme outbreaks, and 'Tornado Alley' has shifted eastward. Projections suggest a 5-20% increase in conditions favorable to severe thunderstorms per 1.8°F of warming, with one study projecting a 6.6% increase in supercell frequency by the end of the century.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Longer Growing Season, Longer Allergy Season in 172 U.S. Cities
Climate Central's analysis of 198 U.S. cities shows that 87% have experienced longer freeze-free growing seasons since 1970, increasing by an average of 20 days. This trend, driven by carbon pollution and warming, extends the period plants release pollen, worsening seasonal allergies for millions, including approximately 19% of U.S. children. The report highlights that CO2 levels also boost pollen production, potentially increasing it by 200% by the end of the century, with disproportionate health impacts on Black and Puerto Rican children who face higher asthma risks.
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Document type: Report
2025 Spring Package
Climate Central's analysis of 241 U.S. cities shows that 97% experienced an increase in average spring temperatures between 1970 and 2024, with an average rise of 2.4°F. The Southwest saw the most significant warming, and 80% of analyzed locations now experience at least one additional week of warmer-than-normal spring days. These trends are linked to global warming and contribute to increased wildfire risk, prolonged allergy seasons, and stressed water supplies in the western U.S.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Electric School Buses
As of June 2024, the U.S. has 12,174 committed electric school buses, representing a 19-fold increase since June 2019. While these vehicles currently make up only about 3% of the national fleet, over 234,000 students now ride them, with the highest adoption rates in the West and South regions. The transition is largely driven by the EPA's Clean School Bus Program, which provides $5 billion from 2022 to 2026 to reduce the 8.4 million metric tons of carbon pollution emitted annually by school bus fleets and mitigate health risks associated with diesel exhaust.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Clean energy investment in every state
Clean energy investment in the U.S. more than tripled between 2018 and 2023, reaching nearly $248 billion annually. Investment is concentrated in the South and West, with zero-emission vehicles, solar power, and wind power serving as the primary drivers of growth across different regions and states.
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Document type: Briefing
Following the Money
Between 2021 and 2023, bioeconomy finance in Brazil averaged US$ 3.213 billion per year, heavily concentrated in the planted forest and bioenergy sectors. While domestic private sources provided 69% of the funding, biodiversity products and native forests remain significantly underfunded, with the Northern region receiving only 12% of biodiversity-related finance.
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Document type: Report
2024 Fall Package
Analysis of 242 U.S. cities shows that fall temperatures have increased by an average of 2.5°F since 1970, with the most intense warming occurring in the Southwest. This trend is characterized by a higher frequency of above-normal temperature days, which prolongs risks related to heat-related illness, wildfires, and allergies, while also affecting agricultural growing seasons and energy demand for cooling.
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Document type: Briefing
Rising Heat Risks for Workers
Climate Central reports that 89% of 242 analyzed U.S. locations have seen an increase in annual 'warning days' (heat index 80°F to 94°F) since 1979, with the most significant rises in the Ohio Valley and Upper Midwest. Between 1992 and 2022, 986 U.S. workers died from heat exposure, and from 1980 to 2016, an average of 421 million work hours were lost annually, costing $14 billion. The document highlights a lack of comprehensive federal heat standards, noting that only five states have such protections, while some states like Florida and Texas prohibit local municipalities from enacting their own heat safety laws.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate
Climate change is increasing the intensity of extreme precipitation across the U.S., with the Northeast and Midwest seeing the largest increases since 1958. Under 2°C of global warming, 85% of U.S. counties are projected to experience a 10% or higher increase in precipitation on the heaviest 1% of days. This intensification contributes to flash flooding and landslides, disproportionately affecting racial minorities and those in mobile homes, particularly in the South and rural areas. Between 1988 and 2021, warming-induced rainfall intensification caused an estimated $84 billion in inland flood damages.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Weather-related Power Outages Rising
Between 2000 and 2023, 80% of major U.S. power outages were caused by weather, with a significant increase in frequency during the last decade. Severe weather, winter storms, and tropical cyclones are the primary drivers, with Texas and the Southeast region among the most affected. The document highlights the vulnerability of aging infrastructure and the disproportionate impact on marginalized and medically vulnerable populations, while suggesting grid hardening, microgrids, and emissions reductions as paths toward resilience.
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Document type: Fact sheet
2024 Spring Package
Since 1970, spring temperatures in the contiguous U.S. have increased by an average of 2°F, with the most significant warming occurring in the Southwest. Analysis of 239 locations shows that 96% of cities experienced warming, with some locations in Nevada, Texas, and Arizona exceeding 6°F. This trend is characterized by an increase in warmer-than-normal spring days, which contributes to earlier snowmelt, prolonged allergy seasons, and extended agricultural growing seasons.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Billion-Dollar Disaster Seasons
The U.S. experienced a record 28 billion-dollar disasters in 2023, causing over $93 billion in damages. Since 1980, tropical cyclones have been the costliest events, while severe storms are the most frequent. The document details how warming temperatures intensify specific hazards—such as increasing rainfall intensity and fueling stronger tropical cyclones—and notes that the average time between such disasters has shrunk from 82 days in the 1980s to 12 days in 2023.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Family Farming in Brazil: Inequalities in Credit Access
The document reveals that only 15% of Brazilian family farmers access credit, with resources heavily concentrated in the South region, larger family properties, and grain production. It argues that the current eligibility criteria, particularly the outdated 'fiscal module' system, create distortions that exclude the most vulnerable producers. The brief recommends revising these criteria and integrating sustainability requirements to support a transition to low-carbon agriculture.
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Document type: Policy brief
Family Farming in Brazil: Inequalities in Credit Access
The report finds that only 15% of Brazilian family farmers access credit, with resources heavily concentrated in the South region, larger properties, and grain production. It argues that the current eligibility criteria, particularly the outdated 'fiscal module' system, create distortions that exclude the most vulnerable producers. The authors recommend revising these criteria and integrating sustainability requirements to support a transition to low-carbon agriculture.
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Document type: Policy brief
Challenges of Rural Insurance in the Context of Climate Change: The Case of Soybeans
The report examines the gap between soybean production distribution and rural insurance coverage in Brazil, highlighting how climate change—manifesting as severe droughts, hail, and frost—has led to unprecedented insurance claim payments. Using LASSO machine learning models, researchers found that while insurance data is insufficient to predict losses in the North and Northeast regions, agricultural yield data from PAM/IBGE can effectively identify climate variables (precipitation, fire risk, and wind) that correlate with losses. The authors recommend expanding insurance supply to vulnerable regions like MATOPIBA, utilizing production history for pricing in underserved areas, and strengthening the reinsurance market and public-private funds to ensure insurer liquidity.
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Document type: Report