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The document examines the increase in sovereign debt across Africa, specifically focusing on the role of Chinese financing and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It challenges the notion that China is 'trapping' African nations, noting that African governments actively seek these loans to address an annual infrastructure financing deficit of approximately $93 billion and to compensate for declining commodity prices. However, it highlights significant risks, including the opacity of loan terms, the potential for corruption, and the impact of debt servicing on public spending. The author recommends greater transparency from both China and African governments, and a stronger link between debt-funded projects and concrete local benefits.

The authors created the CACAO database, which uses a 110x110 km grid to map conflicts, climate data, and socio-economic variables across Africa. Initial descriptive analysis shows that conflicts often overlap with areas rich in natural resources and populated regions, while the relationship with temperature and precipitation changes is more complex and requires further spatial and temporal analysis.

The 31st AU summit introduced unprecedented budget scrutiny, reducing the 2019 budget by 12% to US$681 million through 'golden rules' of sustainability and predictability. While the AfCFTA saw five new signatories, ratification remains below the 22-country threshold required for implementation. Institutional reforms continue, including the proposed shift to merit-based appointments for the AU Commission and the integration of NEPAD and APRM into the AU core. Additionally, the report highlights an escalating armed conflict in Cameroon's anglophone regions and lists various Peace and Security Council (PSC) decisions from April to June 2018, including a new focus on the nexus between climate change and security.

The document examines Kenya's strategic shift toward an integrated Blue Economy, encompassing maritime sectors and inland water bodies. While highlighting growth in port capacity and aquaculture, it identifies critical risks including illegal fishing, environmental degradation from large infrastructure projects, and social exclusion. The author emphasizes the need for better coordination between government ministries and inclusive national dialogue to ensure sustainable development.

The report analyzes the remittance value chain in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), dividing it into the first, middle, and last miles. It identifies a high average remittance cost of 9.4%, driven by supply-side barriers including restrictive licensing for non-bank providers, stringent KYC/AML requirements, and outdated IT infrastructure. The study highlights a persistent consumer preference for cash and a significant shift toward informal remittance channels due to the high costs and documentation burdens of the formal sector. Key recommendations emphasize the need for regulatory harmonization, the adoption of a risk-based approach to KYC, and investment in interoperable national payment systems to reduce costs and increase financial inclusion.

The Innovations for Resilience Convening, co-hosted by the Global Resilience Partnership, WFP, UNDP, and 1BC, focused on the role of technology and cross-sector partnerships in building community resilience. The report identifies key barriers to scaling innovations—such as rigid funding cycles and risk aversion—and showcases specific projects including satellite-based credit in the Horn of Africa, drone mapping in the Maldives, and hydroponics in Algeria. It emphasizes the need for 'disruptive change' and a 'fail fast' mindset to move from gradual development improvements to exponential growth in resilience.

The report finds that while the number of state-based armed conflicts and total casualties declined in 2017, non-state conflicts increased significantly. Syria remained the deadliest conflict, and the Islamic State (IS) was involved in 31% of all conflicts. The authors note a long-term general decline in warfare since the 1950s, though they warn that internationalized intrastate conflicts and religious extremism continue to pose major threats to global peace.

The report finds that the threat of violent extremism among South Sudanese and Somalian refugees in Ethiopia is low, as refugees often possess a genuine disdain for the extremists who caused their displacement. While Ethiopia has effectively managed camp security through a collaborative approach involving refugees, the document warns that chronic underfunding and a lack of livelihood opportunities for youth create fertile ground for future radicalisation. It argues against the narrative that refugees are inherent security risks, suggesting instead that robust asylum processes and integration policies, such as Ethiopia's Nine Pledges, are the most effective ways to ensure security.

Ethiopia is piloting the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) to move away from a camp-based refugee model toward socio-economic integration. While the reform promises expanded access to work permits, education, and civil documentation, it faces significant hurdles including low industrial wages, coordination gaps between government agencies, and ethnic tensions in regions like Gambella. The document recommends a conflict-sensitive approach, a national minimum wage, and increased start-up capital for refugee entrepreneurs to ensure sustainable self-reliance.

The report proposes a definition of sustainable migration as movement that ensures a well-balanced distribution of costs and benefits for individuals, societies, and states, both now and in the future. It argues that migration is an integral part of social change and that its sustainability is inherently political, requiring a balance of empirical data and normative values. Through literature reviews and case studies of Somalia, Pakistan, Tunisia, and Norway, the authors examine how migration impacts development, social cohesion, and welfare state legitimacy, while cautioning that the term 'sustainable' can be co-opted for restrictionist political agendas.

The document analyzes climate change as a 'threat multiplier' that exacerbates global instability and poses direct risks to U.S. military infrastructure and operations. It details how the Department of Defense (DOD) and other agencies like the DHS and CIA integrate climate risk into planning, focusing on issues such as mass migration, water scarcity, and the opening of the Arctic. The brief also outlines specific energy and resilience initiatives across the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard, while noting the tension between military adaptation needs and Congressional fiscal priorities.

The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) views climate change as a "threat multiplier" that amplifies existing global instabilities such as poverty and political tension. The document outlines critical risks including mass population displacement, water scarcity leading to potential "weaponization of water," and shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Arctic due to sea ice loss. Domestically, climate change threatens the readiness of DOD's vast real estate portfolio, valued at approximately $850 billion. The briefing details adaptation and mitigation efforts across the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard, while noting the inconsistent nature of Congressional support for climate-security policies.

The report analyzes the ramifications of the EU's January 2016 decision to reduce AMISOM peacekeeper allowances by 20%, from US$1,028 to US$822 per month. This move triggered a rift between the African Union (AU), troop-contributing countries (TCCs), and donors, while accelerating the development of a concrete exit strategy for the mission. The EU's decision was driven by donor fatigue, shifting priorities toward the Sahel region, and internal regulations regarding the use of the African Peace Facility. TCCs, particularly Uganda and Kenya, initially threatened withdrawal, though national security interests and the desire for regional stability largely prevailed. The report highlights a critical gap between donor expectations for AMISOM to 'do more' against al-Shabaab and the TCCs' claims of severe under-resourcing and a lack of local Somali security capacity to hold liberated territory.

The research paper examines the persistent issue of sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) perpetrated by UN peacekeepers, particularly in conflict-affected regions of Africa. It highlights how power imbalances and poverty drive transactional sex and notes that legal hurdles, such as Status of Force Agreements (SOFAs), often shield perpetrators from prosecution by leaving jurisdiction with home countries. The paper details the UN's response through Resolution 1325 and Resolution 2272, the latter of which empowers the Secretary-General to repatriate troops and requires member states to report on investigations. It concludes that while reforms under Secretary-General António Guterres provide an opportunity for improvement, success depends on sustained political will and balancing troop deployment needs with stringent vetting.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the African Union's (AU) use of mediation as a conflict-prevention tool. It analyzes the institutional gaps, the tension between formal and informal approaches, and the need for a more structured, long-term strategy to address the root causes of conflict in Africa.

The report finds that while Kenyan women are rarely direct perpetrators of violent acts, they provide critical 'invisible infrastructure' for al-Shabaab through recruiting, intelligence gathering, and logistics. Involvement is driven by a complex interplay of poverty, socio-political marginalisation, and personal relationships. The study highlights severe impacts on women, including sexual violence in camps and psychological trauma from terror attacks and heavy-handed counter-terrorism (CT) operations. Current P/CVE responses are criticised for being gender-neutral and overly securitised, leading to mistrust between the state and affected communities.

The document challenges the narrative that water scarcity directly causes violent conflict, asserting instead that the 'politics of water'—including corruption, marginalization, and poor state management—increases conflict risks. While Africa faces significant physical water stress, with 65% of the population experiencing occasional stress and 82% of the continent being arid or semi-arid, empirical research suggests that scarcity often leads to cooperation rather than violence. Conflict typically emerges when water is treated as a 'club good' distributed based on political weight or social networks rather than need. This is particularly evident in the disparity between urban and rural access, the prioritization of cash crops for irrigation, and the rise of informal service providers, such as gangs and militias, who exploit water needs for profit in weak states.

The report analyzes the high stakes of the 2017 Somaliland presidential elections, noting that while the country has a strong democratic record, it faces significant institutional decay and increasing corruption. It highlights the role of clan alliances in determining the outcome between the Kulmiye and Waddani parties and discusses the security risks posed by territorial disputes with Puntland and the rise of al-Shabaab in the region.

The report argues that discriminatory state practices, often driven by a focus on state security over human security, are counterproductive to countering violent extremism. It examines how 'othering' specific religious or ethnic groups—particularly Muslims and certain African ethnic communities—creates grievances that extremist groups exploit for recruitment. The authors advocate for a 'whole of society' approach that prioritises the rule of law, human rights, and socio-economic drivers over identity-based risk assessments.

The report argues that while Mozambique possesses massive natural gas reserves that could drive significant GDP growth, such resource-led growth is unlikely to reduce absolute poverty without concerted investment in human capital and governance. Using the International Futures (IFs) model, the authors demonstrate that the 'Current Path' maintains high levels of extreme poverty due to rapid population growth and systemic failures in health and education. The report evaluates five sectoral scenarios—improving family planning, extending health and nutrition, advancing education, boosting agricultural production, and strengthening governance—concluding that an integrated development strategy is essential to avoid a 'vicious cycle of under-development' and to ensure that gas revenues translate into sustainable, inclusive progress.