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The document examines the challenges facing ECOWAS in its peacekeeping efforts, particularly the lack of formal integration with the AU and UN. It highlights how the ambiguous application of the AU's subsidiarity principle and the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have strained regional security. To address these issues and access UN-assessed funding under Resolution 2719, the paper recommends formalising the division of labour between ECOWAS and the AU and increasing ECOWAS's direct engagement in global peace operations planning.

Nigeria's climate agenda is hampered by overlapping institutions and a lack of elite consensus, which diminishes its bargaining power internationally. While the Tinubu administration has attempted to centralize governance through the Office of the Special Presidential Envoy on Climate (OSPEC) and the Presidential Climate Action Committee (PCAC), these moves risk further fragmentation by sidelining statutory bodies like the National Council on Climate Change (NCCC). Externally, Nigeria faces declining oil exports to China and India and increased competition from the US in European markets, intensifying the need for a successful energy transition. The report highlights a trend of International Oil Companies (IOCs) divesting from onshore assets due to regulatory instability, while noting that agile local firms are better positioned to navigate domestic complexities.

The paper examines the geopolitical and economic landscape of mining in West Africa, highlighting a shift toward resource nationalism in countries like Burkina Faso and Ghana. It discusses the influence of foreign powers such as France, Russia, and China, and identifies critical barriers to growth, including mineral smuggling, illegal artisanal mining, and a lack of processing infrastructure. While ECOWAS has attempted to harmonize mining regulations through directives and policies, the document notes that poor coordination and political instability have hindered their effectiveness.

The document argues that the AfCFTA can mitigate Africa's youth unemployment crisis by fostering a regional market for greentech goods and services. It highlights a significant trade deficit in green goods and suggests that localising production—supported by tax incentives, digital skills training, and the revitalisation of Indigenous environmental practices—can create millions of jobs. While carbon-intensive sectors may lose up to 4.2 million jobs by 2050, the energy transition could create up to 12 million jobs in the same period, provided that regulatory barriers are removed and investment is facilitated.

The paper examines the impact of global powers and internal fragmentation on ECOWAS, noting that while external partnerships can support infrastructure and security, they often exacerbate divisions. It highlights the critical blow dealt by the January 2025 exit of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, and recommends institutional reforms, including the creation of a High Representative for Foreign Affairs and a revamped communications strategy, to strengthen regional solidarity.

The policy brief examines the role of Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI)—comprising digital identity, payments, and data-sharing systems—in addressing the shadow economy in Africa, which is estimated by the IMF to represent roughly 35% of GDP (approximately $1–1.2 trillion). It distinguishes between the general informal economy and the 'shadow economy,' focusing on high-value transactions deliberately structured to evade taxes. The document highlights that cash transactions enable this opacity, while digitalisation can increase visibility and audit trails. Drawing on lessons from South Korea's Tax Incentive for Electronically Traceable Payments (TIETP) and India's 'India Stack' and demonetisation, the brief suggests that incentivising consumers to use digital payments is more effective than solely targeting sellers. It notes that while Uganda has used DPI to register over 350,000 informal participants, revenue gains were limited by weak enforcement and data-sharing obstacles. The brief recommends that South Africa, during its 2025 G20 presidency, advocate for an 'Africa Stack' of open APIs and modular technology to spur private sector innovation and improve tax administration across the continent.

The document analyzes the operational resurgence of IS-WAP, highlighting its use of surveillance and combat drones, its 'Burning of the camps' campaign targeting military bases, and its logistical ties with IS-SP. It argues that a deteriorating regional security architecture, exacerbated by political instability in Niger and the withdrawal of foreign troops, is facilitating the expansion of militant Islamist groups across the Sahel and towards coastal West African states.

The report details the disclosure of environmental and social impact assessments and management plans for the Kwama-Ilute Solar PV subproject in the Sesheke District of Zambia. It confirms that required documents, including the ESIA, ESMP, and Livelihood Restoration Plan, were disclosed on September 4, 2025, in both English and Lozi to ensure accessibility for affected populations. The subproject is classified as GCF Category B, while the overarching REPP 2 programme is Category I-2 and covers ten target countries across Africa.

The report finds that while 100% of reviewed NAP documents acknowledge the importance of MEL, significant gaps remain in institutional capacity and financial resources. Only 18% of countries have dedicated MEL units and 29% mention dedicated financing. While output-level indicators are common (55%), impact-level indicators are used by only 31% of countries. The report also highlights a lack of structured implementation, with only 39% of documents including a roadmap or timeline for MEL rollout. Integration of gender-responsive indicators is emerging (45%), but disaggregation by age, disability, and geography remains low.

The document examines the evolution of National Youth Policies (NYPs) in Africa, noting a steep increase in adoption that peaked in 2020. While these policies frequently address education, employment, and health, they often neglect youth political participation and face significant implementation gaps. Adoption is driven more by political and institutional factors, such as democracy and administrative capacity, than by demographic needs.

The report analyzes the first round of Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs) under the Paris Agreement's Enhanced Transparency Framework, focusing on the voluntary adaptation sections (A-BTR). By reviewing 10 diverse countries, the authors find that while there is strong commitment to reporting, most countries lack comprehensive monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) systems, leading to a gap in evidence regarding the actual effectiveness of adaptation actions. The report highlights significant reporting gaps for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs), a lack of gender equity and social inclusion (GESI) integration, and insufficient transparency regarding financial flows.

The document argues that digital public infrastructure (DPI)—comprising digital identity, payments, and data-sharing systems—can increase the visibility of economic activities in Africa's shadow economy, which accounts for roughly 35% of GDP. It contrasts the approach of some African nations, which tax digital financial services (DFS) transactions directly, with the strategies of South Korea and India, which used digital systems to create audit trails and improve broader tax compliance. The brief recommends that African governments adopt a multi-layered DPI ecosystem, prioritize strategic compliance targeting of high-value non-compliant actors, and leverage South Africa's 2025 G20 presidency to foster an 'Africa stack' for scalable deployment.

The document examines the threats to Africa's development financing, including trade fragmentation, the 'securitisation' of economic policy, and high debt burdens. It proposes five ring-fencing mechanisms—public expenditure reviews, medium-term expenditure frameworks, independent funds, statutory protections, and debt-relief linkages—to ensure continuity in funding for education, infrastructure, and climate resilience. It further suggests that African governments frame development as complementary to security to leverage international financing and calls for reforms in the international financial architecture to support these protections.

The document examines the evolution of humanitarian communication, focusing on the tension between emotional storytelling and technical data. It analyzes the impact of generative AI on the authenticity of testimonies and images, the risks of 'infoglut' and fake news in conflict zones, and the intersectional vulnerabilities of women and LGBTQIA+ individuals facing climate change, specifically in Kenya.

The report confirms that the FP211 Hardest-to-Reach programme is classified as ESS Category I-2 and has established an Environmental and Social Management System (ESMS). This system, which includes a Land Acquisition and Resettlement Policy and Guidance on Indigenous Peoples, is disclosed in English, French, Portuguese, and Arabic. The ESMS is available at Acumen's offices in Kenya and Nigeria, as well as at the Nationally Designated Authority offices in the target countries. An updated version of the ESMS was released on June 30, 2025, to provide more detail on investing strategy and safeguarding roles, and to include Liberia in the programme scope.

Turkey is aggressively expanding its presence in Africa's critical minerals sector to support its domestic defence, electric vehicle, and renewable energy industries. While Turkey employs a pragmatic, commercially driven approach—often coupling mining with defence cooperation in volatile regions like the Sahel—the paper argues that aligning Turkish commercial agility with EU financial instruments and ESG standards through the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) could create more sustainable, trilateral value chains that benefit African host nations.

The document analyzes the resurgence of military coups in West Africa between 2020 and 2023, specifically in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Gabon. It argues that these events are not a uniform trend but are driven by a 'crisis of the democracy norm' initiated by 'pouvoiristes'—politicians who manipulate democratic systems to maintain power, such as by transgressing presidential term limits. The author distinguishes between the 'junta building' model seen in the Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger), which leverages sovereigntist ideology and Russian alignment, and a 'supervisory junta' model in Guinea and Gabon. The paper concludes that geopolitical polarization has weakened Western influence on democratic norms, and that sustainable democracy requires supporting the 'culture of democracy' and a free press rather than just institutional 'hardware'.

The document argues that while African governments have set ambitious climate adaptation targets, governance and financial barriers hinder the effectiveness of locally led adaptation (LLA). It highlights the severe economic impact of climate change on Africa's GDP and food systems, noting that LLA can enhance resilience by centering decision-making at the community level and leveraging Indigenous knowledge. The brief identifies gaps in national policies, such as the lack of substantive gender analysis in NDCs and the disconnect between identified needs and available funding. It recommends integrating LLA principles into national policies, expanding direct access to climate finance for local actors, and strengthening monitoring and evaluation systems to ensure accountability and inclusivity.

The report establishes a methodology for mapping superhot rock (SHR) geothermal resources globally, defining SHR as heat from subsurface formations exceeding 374°C. Using the LithoRef18 global reference model and a 'hydrothermal proxy' to account for non-steady-state heat flow, the study estimates the un-risked global resource. For depths of 4-8 km ('today's resource'), the estimated potential is 3,272 GWe (13,895 GWth). For depths of 8-12.5 km ('tomorrow's resource'), the potential increases to 59,930 GWe (245,581 GWth). The analysis identifies 125 countries with SHR potential, with significant resources in the US, China, Indonesia, and others. The report also analyzes flow rate uncertainties using a database of 33 petrothermal projects, determining a P50 flow rate of 55 l/s for its calculations.

The document argues that while African governments have set ambitious adaptation targets, governance and financial constraints hinder the effectiveness of these efforts. It advocates for locally led adaptation (LLA) as a participatory strategy to ensure resilience is context-specific and inclusive. Key barriers identified include a disconnect between national policies and local needs, limited direct access to climate finance for local actors, and weak monitoring systems. The brief recommends integrating Indigenous knowledge, devolving decision-making, and expanding decentralized finance to empower local communities.