Strengthening Locally Led Adaptation in Africa

This policy brief by the South African Institute of International Affairs examines the role of Locally Led Adaptation (LLA) in Africa, focusing on the food sector. It argues that while African governments have set ambitious adaptation targets, governance barriers, financial constraints, and a lack of meaningful integration of local and Indigenous knowledge hinder effectiveness. The document advocates for decentralised finance, inclusive governance, and robust monitoring systems to ensure climate resilience is sustainable and context-specific.

• Climate change is causing significant economic losses across Africa, with annual GDP losses estimated between 2% and 5%. Some nations are forced to allocate as much as 9% of their national budgets to respond to climate disasters, which limits funding for health, education, and agriculture.
• African food systems are highly vulnerable to climate shocks, with severe production drops recorded in 2023. North Africa's cereal production fell 10% below the five-year average, with Tunisia seeing an 80% drop. Sudan faced forecast reductions of 25% in sorghum and 50% in millet, while Ethiopia lost 72,000 hectares of crops and 27,000 livestock to flooding.
• Projections for 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (2.4°C warming) indicate that wheat yields and grain protein content will decrease by 10% to 15% in North and East Africa, and by more than 15% in Southern Africa.
• While many African Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) mention gender and vulnerable groups, substantive integration is lacking. A study of 31 African NDCs found that only 10 included a gender analysis to inform content, and only seven incorporated sex-disaggregated data and indicators.
• Significant financial gaps exist for climate adaptation in Africa, with an estimated $2.8 trillion needed by 2030 to meet all NDC targets. Funding often fails to reach local levels due to complex application processes for international funds, limited accreditation for local organisations, and a lack of collateral for smallholder farmers.
• The implementation of LLA is hindered by governance issues, including fragmented adaptation frameworks, slow policy execution, and the concentration of resources among economic and political elites. Additionally, many countries lack the monitoring and evaluation systems necessary to track LLA progress or assess gender-specific impacts.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2025). Strengthening Locally Led Adaptation in Africa. https://saiia.org.za/research/strengthening-locally-led-adaptation-in-africa/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Strengthening Locally Led Adaptation in Africa. 2025. https://saiia.org.za/research/strengthening-locally-led-adaptation-in-africa/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Strengthening Locally Led Adaptation in Africa |date=3 June 2025 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/strengthening-locally-led-adaptation-in-africa/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2025strengthening, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Strengthening Locally Led Adaptation in Africa}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/strengthening-locally-led-adaptation-in-africa/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }