Military Power Grab in West Africa: Exploiting the Domestic Rot and the Hegemonic Crisis

The document analyzes the resurgence of military coups in West Africa between 2020 and 2023, specifically in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Gabon. It argues that these events are not a uniform trend but are driven by a 'crisis of the democracy norm' initiated by 'pouvoiristes'—politicians who manipulate democratic systems to maintain power, such as by transgressing presidential term limits. The author distinguishes between the 'junta building' model seen in the Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger), which leverages sovereigntist ideology and Russian alignment, and a 'supervisory junta' model in Guinea and Gabon. The paper concludes that geopolitical polarization has weakened Western influence on democratic norms, and that sustainable democracy requires supporting the 'culture of democracy' and a free press rather than just institutional 'hardware'.

• The recent series of coups in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Gabon (2020-2023) is not a single trend, and attributing them primarily to French (neo)colonialism is unwarranted because France is not a factor in Gabon or Guinea.
• A 'crisis of the democracy norm' was triggered by 'pouvoiristes'—leaders who prioritize staying in power—starting with a trend of violating presidential term limits in Francophone West Africa, notably beginning with Mamadou Tandja in Niger in 2009.
• The causes of the coups vary by region: in Guinea and Gabon, they are directly linked to the crisis of democratic norms and 'pouvoiriste' manipulations; in Mali and Burkina Faso, the immediate drivers were the expansion of conflict zones since 2012, though the democratic crisis provided a supportive environment for mass support.
• A new 'junta counter-model' has emerged, pioneered by Mali in May 2021, where military regimes govern through decrees and indefinitely suspend political institutions, contrasting with the older model of interim military leadership leading back to civilian rule.
• Current geopolitical polarization allows small African states to diversify partnerships and play great powers against each other, reducing the effectiveness of Western pressure to adhere to democratic norms.
• Juntas in the Sahel have built legitimacy through 'sovereigntist panic' and nationalist ideology, though this is threatened by 'junta fatigue' as military rulers fail to deliver public goods and succumb to the same rent-seeking behaviors as their civilian predecessors.
• The future of democratic transitions varies among the Alliance of Sahelian States (AES): Mali shows more potential for restarting a transition due to vocal civilian pressure, while Burkina Faso has postponed the process to 2029 or beyond, and Niger has not addressed it.

APA

Idrissa, R. (2025). Military Power Grab in West Africa: Exploiting the Domestic Rot and the Hegemonic Crisis. Africa Policy Research Institute. https://afripoli.org/military-power-grab-in-west-africa-exploiting-the-domestic-rot-and-the-hegemonic-crisis

Chicago

Idrissa, Rahmane. Military Power Grab in West Africa: Exploiting the Domestic Rot and the Hegemonic Crisis. Africa Policy Research Institute, 2025. https://afripoli.org/military-power-grab-in-west-africa-exploiting-the-domestic-rot-and-the-hegemonic-crisis.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Idrissa |first1=Rahmane |title=Military Power Grab in West Africa: Exploiting the Domestic Rot and the Hegemonic Crisis |publisher=Africa Policy Research Institute |date=10 June 2025 |url=https://afripoli.org/military-power-grab-in-west-africa-exploiting-the-domestic-rot-and-the-hegemonic-crisis |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{idrissa2025military, author = {Idrissa, Rahmane}, title = {{Military Power Grab in West Africa: Exploiting the Domestic Rot and the Hegemonic Crisis}}, institution = {Africa Policy Research Institute}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://afripoli.org/military-power-grab-in-west-africa-exploiting-the-domestic-rot-and-the-hegemonic-crisis}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }